25NL: floating with a gutshot with A7s

[Montezuma21]

villain is at 23/17/3 over 87 hands. no other reads. FWIW my stats are identical.

I do this quite a bit against donkbets. i'm not sure if it's not -EV in the long run.

comments appreciated on both flop and turn
Full Tilt Poker
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
Hero (BTN): $46.75
SB: $48.95
BB: $24.75
UTG: $42.50
MP: $29.40
CO: $10.85

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($0.35, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($2.25, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2</font>, Hero calls $2

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif [T/images/graemlins/spade.gif] ($6.25, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5

[BlueArchon]

I don't like it. You arent going to be folding out any draws at this level and may be forced to check it down on the river, unless you're planning on firing large again if you're checked to. That just seems like spewage to me.

Also, calling the flop on that board does not scream that you have a big hand to villain, so he's just not going to believe you if he has any kind of hand.

Raise the flop if you wish to proceed further with this hand. I personally fold this and move on to the next hand.

[monkover]

I think in this case your turn bet is very good... You´v picked up a double gutter on the turn and your bet might win you the pot right there. If villain calls I´d fire a second barrell on a non club river.
I think these kind of plays are only +EV against players that you think are able to lay down hands. Don´t float a station and then bluff on the turn it´s never gonna work and you just lose money...

[venom007]

Agree with monkover-- definately fire second barrel on a safe river card. SB's looks like 76/56/78, something along those lines. He'll probably call your turn bet not believing that you hit the 10 and then check to you on river to see if you'll bet again, and if you oblige him most likely he folds.

[Vyse]

vs a TAG I think this is a fine line if you have no problem bluffing the river (whether you hit or not is meaningless; whether you think the opponent hit is what matters).

And I disagree with BlueArchon; many players, especially TAGs (even if they're bad TAGs) will fold their draws to a bet of 80% of the pot or something like that -- only on the TURN though, not the flop.