25NL: medium overpair(88) faces a donkbet

[Montezuma21]

villain is 30/1.5/1.55 over 65 hands. no other reads


Full Tilt Poker
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
Hero (CO): $37.40
BTN: $25.60
SB: $27.45
BB: $23.8
UTG: $36.55
MP: $25.45

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.35, 6 players)
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.10</font>, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.85, UTG calls $0.85

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif ($3.4, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $4</font>, Hero? <font color="green"> </font>


1. My thoughts on the flop:
I figure i'm about 75% likely to be ahead on this flop. i put him on a 6 trying to protect his hand or a str8 draw. Despite this, i'm more tempted to call than to raise as: i can't call a push (he might well have 99-JJ as his PFR is so low).

Also, the pot is already pretty large with his donkbet and my hand is marginal, so i don't want to bloat it eventhough that might mean that i give him free cards to catch up.

how's my line?

[Low_Card2]

raise to 12 and the reevaluate if he calls

[Montezuma21]

[ QUOTE ]
raise to 12 and the reevaluate if he calls

[/ QUOTE ]

if he calls, i assume you push a blank river?

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
raise to 12 and the reevaluate if he calls

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you expand on 'reevaluate' please?
What is your plan if villain pushes?

[Freelancer]

I call on this dry flop, if it was wetter I'd prefer raising...

[crushednuts]

The limp/call line UTG is often a small PP or some kind of suited connecting garbage. I doubt he would bet a set out here w/ his Aggression factor, so you might be facing a Two pair hand or top pair or a straight draw or even something like a pair of sevens or nines. I would probably just call the flop and see what he does OOP on the turn.

I am afraid that a raise on the flop would only get called by hands that are beating you. Raising to 12 gets us pretty committed and gives the 87 decent odds to take a card off. Plus if he pushes you will probably have to fold.

[Daniel LeClaire]

I think you could make a good case for folding here. His stats don't indicate that he is aggressive, so he probably has a hand. Likely a set or an overpair. He isn't maniacally loose so a straight draw isn't too likely. Especially something like 7/8 since you have two 8s.

Calling puts you in a tough spot. Any turn card is either going to be an overcard or will potentially complete the straight. Unless you have a read that he will donk into you and then shutdown unimproved you will probably be faced with a large turn bet.

Raising is worse because you are committing a lot of money with a mediocre hand, you have little invested, and you still have another player to act behind you.

In reality, I'd probably end up calling the flop and then folding the turn when he inevitably pots it again. However, I think folding this flop would be best, even though it seems really weak to do so.