Thought i made a good read.... but.. it turned out bad..

[stanski]

i put him on the draw... did i really make a bad play here??

FullTiltPoker Game #1873648343: Table Florentine - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:07:03 ET - 2007/02/25
Seat 1: OzWilko ($9)
Seat 2: IFlopThANutz ($22.35)
Seat 3: thewire ($20.50)
Seat 4: AlarmClock ($67.35)
Seat 5: sixtybel0w3 ($57.55)
Seat 6: cha_dude ($50)
Seat 7: MickeydG ($20.75)
Seat 8: Jester87k ($27.70)
Seat 9: PohkerIzPhun ($29.50)
AlarmClock posts the small blind of $0.25
sixtybel0w3 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IFlopThANutz [9d 9s]
cha_dude has 15 seconds left to act
cha_dude folds
MickeydG folds
Jester87k folds
PohkerIzPhun folds
OzWilko folds
IFlopThANutz raises to $1.50
thewire folds
AlarmClock calls $1.25
sixtybel0w3 folds
*** FLOP *** [5h 6h 3c]
AlarmClock checks
IFlopThANutz bets $2.25
AlarmClock raises to $6
IFlopThANutz has 15 seconds left to act
IFlopThANutz raises to $20.85, and is all in
AlarmClock calls $14.85
IFlopThANutz shows [9d 9s]
AlarmClock shows [9h 7h]
cha_dude stands up
*** TURN *** [5h 6h 3c] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [5h 6h 3c 8c] [Qd]
IFlopThANutz shows a pair of Nines
AlarmClock shows a straight, Nine high
AlarmClock wins the pot ($42.95) with a straight, Nine high
IFlopThANutz is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $45.20 | Rake $2.25
Board: [5h 6h 3c 8c Qd]
Seat 1: OzWilko didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: IFlopThANutz showed [9d 9s] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 3: thewire (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: AlarmClock (small blind) showed [9h 7h] and won ($42.95) with a straight, Nine high
Seat 5: sixtybel0w3 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: cha_dude didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: MickeydG didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: Jester87k didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: PohkerIzPhun didn't bet (folded)

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
i put him on the draw...

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[Check_The_Nuts]

wtf kurt, cuz he went all in duh. bet/3bet is always draw. Flop comes Awhatevr who cares there's two clubs. If it goes bet/3bet you always have to call with TPTK or better. simple right? right?

[KurtSF]

Besides, he lost the hand so obviously it was a bad play. Don't know what we have to debate.



OP, to get a serious answer I want to you to do the following:

(1) Give me your read on the villain. What are his stats? What's the recent history with him? What did he have the last time he check-raised the turn?

(2) Find an odds calculator and input this hand (knowing villain's hand) and see what % you are to win on the flop. Tell me the %, and tell me if you want to be all in knowing this.

(3) Given the play of the hand, up to but not including your all-in bet, give me a complete range of hands for the villain. Tell me every hand he could possibly hold.

(4) Find pokerstove and tell me the % you are to win against his complete range. Do you want to be all in knowing THIS?

(5) Tell me why you *might* want to bet all in even if you are behind in the hand?

Seriously. If you do those 5 things, well... that would just be brilliant. Trust me.

[donkeykong2]

hmm u only have half a buy in, cant be that bad then.

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides, he lost the hand so obviously it was a bad play. Don't know what we have to debate.



OP, to get a serious answer I want to you to do the following:

(1) Give me your read on the villain. What are his stats? What's the recent history with him? What did he have the last time he check-raised the turn?

(2) Find an odds calculator and input this hand (knowing villain's hand) and see what % you are to win on the flop. Tell me the %, and tell me if you want to be all in knowing this.

(3) Given the play of the hand, up to but not including your all-in bet, give me a complete range of hands for the villain. Tell me every hand he could possibly hold.

(4) Find pokerstove and tell me the % you are to win against his complete range. Do you want to be all in knowing THIS?

(5) Tell me why you *might* want to bet all in even if you are behind in the hand?

Seriously. If you do those 5 things, well... that would just be brilliant. Trust me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Blah blah blah .... you are full of it Kurt, if this was a serious reply, then you would have done the above, explained your reasoning and delighted us with your conclusion.

Then eventually asked if OP put villian on a different range than you.


This is just acting up

[KurtSF]

Trust me, I've done such in the past. But OP seems to have so comletely missed the mark with his "read" and "analysis" that I thought the excersize would be an eye-opening exerience for him.

Whatevs. Maybe I'll do it later.

[Check_The_Nuts]

gel - kurt is on the money with his post IMO. Hero here is thinking "oh, villian has exactly JTcc" or whatever. When he should be thinking, "villian could have x y z". His post was pretty verbose tho, I'll give you that. Probably made OP think more about his thought process than my first post (which was hinting at the same thing)....

[Gelford]

I am not doubting that you've done it in the past, it is a fairly common and very healthy exercise ....


But demonstrating the exercise would be more benificial for OP and the rest of the forum, than just ... well .. than a brief comment about something or other, if you gotta do it, then do it right /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Gelford]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

255,133,296 games 0.211 secs 1,209,162,540 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.450% 56.84% 00.61% 145013537 1561466.50 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 42.550% 41.94% 00.61% 106996826 1561466.50 { 22+, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, KhQh, KhJh, Kh9h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 4h3h, 3h2h, AJo+, KQo }


---

Is a reasonable range it seems, but I do not have a read or history with villian and I am influenced by the result of the hand.

Still ... all in all, a good push.

[KurtSF]

Gelford, don't forget any 4x in that range, and "slowplayed monsters" like AA, KK, and the like.

[KurtSF]

The c/r is huge strength. My take on villain's hand range here...

Made hands (and our outs):

42s (virtually dead)
47s (ditto)
33 (2)
55 (2)
66 (2)
AA (2)
KK (2)
QQ (2)
JJ (2)

Good draws (and his outs):
2 :hearts:s with 2 overs (15)
2 :hearts:s with 1 overcard (12+)
2 :hearts:s with no overcards (12)
4x with an overcard (11)
4x with a pair (13)



So it looks like when we're behind we only have about 8% equity. When we're "ahead" if looks like the hand is about a coinflip. We're somewhere between 45% and 55% to win the pot in these situations (you did realize that you are behind "the draw" that you pt him on a lot here, right). The "good draws" is a much larger set of of hands than the "made hands" - about 30 combos versus, um, I can't even count, but hundreds. Let's call it ~200, so our equity is

.08 * .15 + .5 * .85 = ~.437

We are behind his range here. Based on his range, we "lose" $2.35 by getting the rest of our stacks in.



Unless he folds! Ah ha!

So we win the $11 pot if he folds to our shove, so he has to fold at least 22% of the time ($11 *.22 = $2.42, more than we lose when he calls). Based on the strength of his c/r and the small stacks I'd say he will fold about 0% of the time.


Looks like a fold to me. If you were any deeper this would be a definite fold, however, since you're a short stack it is kinda borderline, and shoving isn't terrible. Especially with a read that villain is fishy, likely to get out of line, or will c/r you with air. But you just put him on "the draw", so I don't really know anything about this villain.

BTW, since I asked the question, if his hand was face up this is a fold also. You are technically ahead, but he is the favorite to win.

Am I helpful and productive member of the forums again?

[Mal_Pais]

OP, trust your reads. I don't know how you figured out you were ahead, but if you got the money in with what you thought was the best hand, then good read, good push.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
OP, trust your reads. I don't know how you figured out you were ahead, <snip>


[/ QUOTE ]

OP was not ahead.

[Mal_Pais]

Not the point. Easy for you to say after you see Villian's cards at showdown. OP thought he was ahead, so he made the right play given his read. No 5-point checklist needed.

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
Gelford, don't forget any 4x in that range, and "slowplayed monsters" like AA, KK, and the like.

[/ QUOTE ]


What are you talking about, AA is there ??


I admit, that you might cut down on bluffs like KQ, but still ahead


C'mon Kurt .... show us a pokerstove transcript of your range

[KurtSF]

OK, then the point I was getting to in the very first response in this thread is that he should have a 5-point checklist for how he got that read. Based on the OP it seems arbitrary and self-serving.

[KurtSF]

Never used pokerstove. I just do it in my head. Granted its not as accurate, but for OP pokerstove would do the trick.

[EMc]

This is a poor post and a BBV post. And its leading to some tension. Done. Also too...OP, convert your hands.