NL50 - Broadway straight, value bet the river on scary-ish board?

[YKMM]

BB has $14.10 left and is the worst loose-ultra passive imaginable 76/0/1.0 in 70 hands. Looks good?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($26.60)
BB ($28.10)
UTG ($24.70)
Hero ($50.85)
CO ($54.30)
Button ($43.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, BB calls $4.

Turn: ($12.25) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, BB calls $8.

River: ($28.25) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $26.75</font>

[corsakh]

If he was full stack, there might have been something to discuss. Otherwise I go broke here.

[TenFourOff]

Check behind on river. Your bet is essentially a bluff, here, not a value bet. Multiple boats could have come to fruition on the river, and BB may be slowplaying a made flush on the turn.

[corsakh]

He is also calling with any queen and any king.

[cortanpeter]

I think u only get called by a better hand. I might make a 1/3rd pot- 1/2 pot sized bet, as u are giving away money if he does have a flush.

[HUD-BOT]

You only have to win just under 25% of the time to make this bet. The bet is fine. BOMBS AWAY.

[HUD-BOT]

[ QUOTE ]
I think u only get called by a better hand. I might make a 1/3rd pot- 1/2 pot sized bet, as u are giving away money if he does have a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
Villain only has 1/2 pot left.

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
You only have to win just under 25% of the time to make this bet. The bet is fine. BOMBS AWAY.

[/ QUOTE ]

So we bet X and win 1/4 times for a return of 1/4*X. How does that figure to be +EV?

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
You only have to win just under 25% of the time to make this bet. The bet is fine. BOMBS AWAY.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somebody else pointed out, but wasn't fully explicit, but this is very wrong thinking. If we were bluffing and had no chance to win the pot by checking behind, then we're betting half pot to win the pot. In that circumstance, we'd need to win 1/3 of the time. But we're definitely going to win some of the time that we check behind; our hand, while not phenomenal, is pretty good. So it's not as simple as saying "we only need to win x% of the time" when we put more money in the pot, because we need to consider what we'll potentially win by checking behind. EDIT: If you want to put it another formal way, you're assuming the baseline EV we should be comparing this to is 0 EV. But if you're in a situation where checking behind is already +EV, moving down to 0 EV can still be a losing play. Your play has positive EV compared to 0, but negative EV compared to better plays that you could make. This is a pretty standard confusion; I wish there were different terms for the two concepts.

The things to look at are: what worse hands call, what better hands fold? I think it's pretty clear no better hands are folding - maybe a baby flush will very rarely, but I kinda doubt it. Thus, there's no situation where betting wins us the pot where checking behind doesn't win it for us, too. So the only thing to consider is the return on the final bet that you make. In that situation, it should be clear that what you want is for more than 50% of the range of hands that call you to be losers. I don't think that's very realistic on this board, and so I'd usually check behind.

This line of reasoning is the general reason why you're usually betting big hands or air on the river, and not middle strength hands. Without a chance to win the pot at showdown, your equity improves by bluffing, so you bluff your worst hands. Middle strength hands will frequently have a hard time getting calls from worse hands or moving better hands, so they do best by checking behind. Strong hands can get paid by a variety of weaker hands, so they bet for value.

[ama0330]

^^ what he said. Easy check behind.