(NL50) TPTK vs. turn shove from LAP. Call or fold?

[JoshNjuice]

Villain is 60/1.4/1.25 over 75 hands.

I've been pretty card dead, so my image is pretty TAG (emphasis on tight). I have only seen something like 6 showdowns in 125 hands or so.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($50)
Button ($47.40)
SB ($45.90)
BB ($114.05)
Hero ($69.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $2, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($6.50) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, Button calls $5, SB folds.

Turn: ($16.50) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $40.4</font>, Hero ???

Thanks for your input

JoshNjuice

[JoshNjuice]

Bump.

[gumpzilla]

Well, he's super loose PF and in position, so he could have caught this in all manner of ways. You're getting something close to 7:3 odds, so you need to win 30% of the time to call. That seems pretty close to me. Without more of a read, hard to tell how often he's shoving a weaker J here, and he could easily have set/two pair/overpair (he doesn't really raise much PF, though the sample is small.) But, given that he's loose and still has a decent AF, I think he's probably pushy enough that you can call here. It's close, though.