AQs flops TP multiway, turns FD (50nl)

[danny8]

been at the table a couple of orbits... only have 50hands on villain (24/15/2.5) tables kinda passive, he seems to be the table captain - doing the betting/raising etc

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $44.20
UTG+1: $46.60
CO: $121.70
Button: $36.50
SB: $0
Hero: $54.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $2.5</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($10.25, 5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $7</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($24.25, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $20</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $44.75</font>

i prolly reraise more often than call pf, but meh, hadnt been at the table too long, thought id call n see a flop

im not sure what to do on the flop. is leading (folding to a raise?) better than c/c? . i think hes agro enough that if i c/r or 3bet he might push with an FD, so i just opt to call, dont really wanna play for my stack with TP2K in a multiway pot

turn helps me a little... .i cant really c/c unless he bets tiny. so lead and call a push, c/rai, or c/f? i know I have very low FE, not sure what the best plan is.

comments on all streets appreciated, thanks a lot!

[barryc83]

I honestly dont know what the best plan is here. If you didnt hit a diamond on the turn I'd fold to that big bet.

Assuming he has AK:
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 12 27.27 32 72.73 0 0.00 0.273
Ah Kh 32 72.73 12 27.27 0 0.00 0.727

Assuming he has a set:
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 8 18.18 36 81.82 0 0.00 0.182
Ts Th 36 81.82 8 18.18 0 0.00 0.818

Assuming you stack him if you hit the implied odds are:
(24.25+44.75)/20=3.45 or 3.45:1. youre a 3:1 dog against AK and a 4:1 dog against a set. So if you weight them equally youre at about 3.5:1 on the call or about breakeven.

Meh its close, but I wouldnt push here bc you have zero FE, are most likely behind, and if you call and hit, he will pay you off. I think calling and c/f if you miss is better than pushing. Also, folding cant be too terrible either. Calling that bet is a high variance play and folding isnt. I think its pretty close to 0 EV.

[danny8]

yea without the diamond i'd just fold, with only 1 more card to come im still pretty crushed by any hand thats ahead on the turn. Maybe i should just ignore the diamond, and play it as if it was a blank...

anyways, to my surprise villain actually folded... prolly thought i was drawing and thought a ~PSB will get me to fold.

i guess c/f the turn is best here, unless he bets v.small. he wont usually be on a bluff. But he seems to have been kinda running over the table, i think hes capable of playing AJ+ and maybe /images/graemlins/club.gif/images/graemlins/club.gif the same... i think you're right in that c/f and c/c are prolly similar in terms of EV...

cheers!