NL50 (6): AK vs a 3bettin OOP Tag

[fooz]

Villain is 21/19/8.4

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.80
Hero: $50.50
CO: $77.45
Button: $62.30
SB: $70.25
BB: $11.65

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $6.5</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($13.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $10</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($33.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $34</font>, Hero ?

With the flop smooth-call, I have to call the turn, right?

Would you have raised the Flop? Seems like I'd just push out worse hands.

[Supwithbates]

You need to consider a few things when it comes to hands like these. FIrst and foremost, how is your image? Do you think you've been loose enough that he'd play KQ for value this way, or maybe even QQ? Any history between you two? How often is he 3betting, especially OOP?

How good is villain? With that postflop aggression, I definitely think AK is a huge part of his range here, but so are AA and KK to which you're basically drawing dead.

Tough spot, but I'm probably folding turn every time unless villain is stacking off weak or you have a really loose image/history with him (or he's tilting). Because you are calling for a split, you have to be pretty sure he's got AK like 3/4 of the time to make the turn a call (which he may well be, I wasn't at the table).

Unless villain is a donkey, there's no value in raising this flop.

Yucky spot

[barryc83]

Dont raise the flop. Turns probably a fold against this guy, but I'd play TPTK like the nuts in a RR pot and in game I'd call. I dont think he fires the turn with QQ.

[ssdex]

I think your best bet is to make it 25 on the flop....... I have several reasons for this play...... 1.... i don't like the cold call on the flop.... you scream ak after villian 3betted and you called..... its no secret, so don't make it one. Secondly villian is a little bit nittier then me, but I am 3betting 99-QQ fairly often as well as Ac Qc..... I think villian may have hit a set of 9's on you on the turn... if it isn't 9's its either Ax kx or ac qc or QQ.... and sometimes AA.... for 100 bb's on a k x x flop with AK vs AA honestly sometimes you just have to stack off.... make it 25 to go on the flop and let villian shove ac qc or q q because your money is in good here, plus once you make it 25 to go you are pot committed for the rest of the hand..... calling 10 and folding is much less +EV then pumping the flop.... by re reaising you get some value when villian shoves weaker hands and you arent getting yourself into tough decisions..... if ur gonna call the 3bet with Ak and a K flops and your properly rolled, you need to get all your money in as soon as possible, so you don't give them a free set and stack off. Oh yea, and Villian is shoving KQ here sometimes too.......... which is perfect for you.

[Supwithbates]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your best bet is to make it 25 on the flop....... I have several reasons for this play...... 1.... i don't like the cold call on the flop.... you scream ak after villian 3betted and you called..... its no secret, so don't make it one. Secondly villian is a little bit nittier then me, but I am 3betting 99-QQ fairly often as well as Ac Qc..... I think villian may have hit a set of 9's on you on the turn... if it isn't 9's its either Ax kx or ac qc or QQ.... and sometimes AA.... for 100 bb's on a k x x flop with AK vs AA honestly sometimes you just have to stack off.... make it 25 to go on the flop and let villian shove ac qc or q q because your money is in good here, plus once you make it 25 to go you are pot committed for the rest of the hand..... calling 10 and folding is much less +EV then pumping the flop.... by re reaising you get some value when villian shoves weaker hands and you arent getting yourself into tough decisions..... if ur gonna call the 3bet with Ak and a K flops and your properly rolled, you need to get all your money in as soon as possible, so you don't give them a free set and stack off. Oh yea, and Villian is shoving KQ here sometimes too.......... which is perfect for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Umm... I really disagree with everything you just said. Denying odds to 2-outers should not really be something you're worried about, they're 7% at best and not chasing if you raise.

Villain is NOT going to shove AQ or any of those other hands we beat if we raise, he folds them. Any legitimate flop raise commits us to call the shove, but even if it didn't this is not the place to raise for information because it allows our opponent to play perfectly; calling and re-evaluating on the turn is far superior. He did so, and villain puts out a VERY strong bet which to me says AK is at the very bottom of his range, which means we need to fold.

Also, if you seriously think that your only goal once you flop TPTK is to get allin, then you should read some more posts, this clearly isn't the case

[fooz]

Pocket 9's.

[Genz]

I think I call here because of his over-aggressive stats. But I get stacked very often in situations like this, lately. But over-aggressive players like him will play like this with KT or a flush draw. It's high variance.

He sucked out big time. Well. Get used to it. I'm trying too.

[eigenvalue]

Just a little hint to everyone: You cannot call here because of stack sizes. It's a shove or a fold, but never a call!

Shoving or folding here depends on reads. Without any reads, I would fold. If I know he reraises light or bets draws etc, I shove.

Reraising on the flop is terrible, reraising pf makes sense only if we know that he reraises SCs, AQ, KQ and that kind of stuff, too and that he feels pot committed once he puts some money into the pot.

[Genz]

6.5+10+34=50.5. OP's stack size at the beginning of the hand: 50.5. He is betting OP all in. Or do you mean the flop? Edit: or do you mean preflop? I'm confused. I don't push here in position. 5/10 rule does not apply, imo. I like looking at the flop and being able to get away from it.

[matrix]

push the flop or fold the flop.

How do you decide which to do?

How often is TAG (this guy is more of a TAG on steroids) 3betting OOP?

(assuming it's reasonably often - which means he's doing this with less than premium hands)

On that flop he either has a set (unlikely) AK or nothing.

He can't call with most of his range - so make him pay for overplaying his crap preflop and on the flop and get all your chips in the middle. TPTK is a small pot hand - if a villain is so aggro that no matter what line you take the pot will be large by the river then your only chance to keep it small is to push all-in on the flop (usually he folds and you win a small pot /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

If a villain is THAT aggressive (and 20/19/EIGHT) is just maniacal he doesn't have a hand that often so you can confidently push the flop and profit. Sometimes he'll have flopped a set and you lose - mostly he'll fold - sometimes he'll call with KQ or stuff you have crushed, but vs the range of hands he can do this with you make a healthy profit.

It's better still to just push all-in preflop with AK if a tricky very aggro villain is 3betting you often enough for him to have a worse hand than AK a lot of the time - now he can only call you profitably if you have AK or worse - and vs the range of hands you should be doing this with (JJ+ AK) in the long run he'll get crushed calling your pushes with small pairs and he'll probably call you often.

If he's NOT 3betting preflop very often just fold the flop to his CB cos he has at worst AK now and calling just to split is actually a small loss because of the rake - and he has a better hand enough times than AK to make it -EV.

It sucks to flop TPTK with AK and then face a huge CB IME unless you got a good read on the villain or he's doing this way too often to be credible it's better to just fold the flop. The reason you call preflop is mostly to see what he does on the flop and how big his bet is. Calling his flop bet here sometimes is OK - but then if he bets the turn hard as well you have to fold and a villain thats THAT aggressive is almost always betting the turn as well.

AK used to be a losing hand for me, since I started playing it much tighter nowadays and have stopped getting it all-in as often when I flop TPTK I am doing lots better with it.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]


there's no value in raising this flop.



[/ QUOTE ]

there's 47BB of dead money in the pot already - thats tons of value.

How many BB's do you make with AK per hand?

vs a very overaggro villain push the flop and steal the dead money - make a handsome profit...

obv vs a TAG who isn't 3betting much - just fold the flop. Calling and re-evaluating on the turn is a marginally profitable play at best I think and very villain dependant (i.e. how often does this villain 2 barrel bluff)

[Genz]

thanks for the insight. Very helpfull.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
this is not the place to raise because it allows our opponent to play perfectly;

[/ QUOTE ]

one last point.

Yes pushing or raising this flop big (I think pushing is better because once we raise we're committed anyway and pushing has slightly better FE) allows our villain to "play his hand perfectly"

but thats not always a bad thing.

assuming his range is large enough (and we have a read that he's 3betting us light) then after he's misplayed his medium pair preflop - and then grossly overplayed his hand on the flop - well now he can play his hand "perfectly" from here until the end of time and he'll still lose in the long run.

He's put so many chips into this pot already for him the situation is unrecoverable if we put him to the test for everything on the flop.

Look at the size of the pot after he makes his "CB" - provided that his range for betting this flop includes missed pp's and whiffed overcards he can't call and show a profit getting 1.8:1 odds.

If he has a pp he makes a set one time in eight or thereabouts - that means if he's doing this with pairs - 7 out of 8 times we're ahead on the flop and he's chasing 2 outs if he calls. Very few people are stupid enough to call off their stack with MP if an A or a K flops and they get put allin.

Here is a simplified example:

So lets say he has a hand like JJ vs our AK and he 3bets pre and then lands us with a huge "CB" on a K high ragged flop.

7 times out of 8 (roughly) we are a 90% favourite
1 time in 8 we are a 3% dog. (the times he flops a set)

lets say that he plays "perfectly" after we push and always folds the flop when he's behind - and always calls when he's ahead. (this won't happen in real life , he'll call sometimes when he's Waaaay behind as well)

7 times we win 47BB (pot size on the flop) = +329BB
1 time we lose 100BB 97% of the time = -97BB

total profit 231BB

If the stacks are deep it gets way more complicated, if you also take into account the fact that sometimes he has AA/KK again it gets more complicated, but if he's 3betting light lots he rarely has AA/KK/set here and with 100BB stacks he can play perfectly from here onwards and still lose big.

Edit: a slightly more realistic example that I stoved.

510,840 games 0.016 secs 31,927,500 games/sec

Board: Ks 8d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.132% 76.13% 00.00% 388914 0.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.868% 23.87% 00.00% 121926 0.00 { 66+ }

from these numbers assuming he plays "perfectly" after our flop push. (again - he won't and will sometimes call waaaaay behind)

76 times out of 100 he folds to our push and we make 47BB a time = +3572BB

24 times out of a hundred he calls and wins our 100BB stack = -2400BB

1172BB total profit / 100 hands = 11.72BB profit per hand.

[fooz]

I don't think there's much question that pushing the flop is profitable. The question is, is it our most profitable play. Don't we stand a good chance to have him bet into us again on the Turn with a worse hand?

[Thremp]

4bet preflop.