NL25 AA one pair - can I value bet this on the river?

[Triggerle]

No reads as I was new to the table.

Given the bet sizes this guy called is there any value in betting on the river?

Full Tilt Poker
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
Hero (SB): $24.65
BB: $31.1
UTG: $14.15
MP: $17.85
CO: $25
BTN: $40.50

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.35, 6 players)
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, BTN calls $1.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($4, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BTN calls $3

<font color="black">Turn:</font> J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [3/images/graemlins/club.gif] ($10, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, BTN calls $10

<font color="black">River:</font> J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif [J/images/graemlins/club.gif] ($30, 2 players)
Hero ??

[spacetime]

I am c/c here. I dont see what he calls with we beat, and he might bet a busted FD.

[synbad13]

I like a c/c here.

[Maneh]

No value here.

c/c

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I am c/c here. I dont see what he calls with we beat, and he might bet a busted FD.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he could have played QQ or KK this way, though it's a bit unlikely. Beyond that, though, he's going to be getting about 4-1 to call. That should loosen him up quite a bit. Similarly, because the pot is so big, his bluff isn't going to be very effective, and so he's less likely to take a shot at it. But he'll certainly bet a J if he has one, and probably check behind with a T.

So here, I think because the pot is already so big, it's the reverse of the usual situation. C/c usually is good because you lose less to big hands and extract more from bluffs. With bluffs unlikely and mediocre hands more likely to call because of the pot size, c/c will just mean you lose the same amount to a J while not extracting from anything else. This is a realization that I had last night in a similar hand where I messed up and didn't bet the river.

[spacetime]

Good thoughts, I did not even notice the large pot size...

The deeper the stacks, the better c/c is.

[Bowlboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am c/c here. I dont see what he calls with we beat, and he might bet a busted FD.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he could have played QQ or KK this way, though it's a bit unlikely. Beyond that, though, he's going to be getting about 4-1 to call. That should loosen him up quite a bit. Similarly, because the pot is so big, his bluff isn't going to be very effective, and so he's less likely to take a shot at it. But he'll certainly bet a J if he has one, and probably check behind with a T.

So here, I think because the pot is already so big, it's the reverse of the usual situation. C/c usually is good because you lose less to big hands and extract more from bluffs. With bluffs unlikely and mediocre hands more likely to call because of the pot size, c/c will just mean you lose the same amount to a J while not extracting from anything else. This is a realization that I had last night in a similar hand where I messed up and didn't bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

To gump: Interesting line of thinking here, I like it.

To those advocating c/c: Can you call a push here? I think that from my experience not betting oop often ends up with villain pushing because the pot is so large.

[mickii]

i wouldnt value bet into his 4s full....

[Supwithbates]

There are several things wrong with this hand. None of them are major, but as I see it even small leaks need fixing.

Think about your betsizing. I often fall into the trap of lazily selecting a number within a range I feel denies odds without actually thinking about what hands I'm trying to get value from. Even without reads, this is still a doable feat.

Preflop, button limped behind another limper ON THE BUTTON and then called your slightly oversized raise in position. Now, it's possible that he's a passive donkey, we don't know yet, but we need to work with what we have. Both JT and 44 are speculative hands that are very real possibilities, and just as likely as QJ/KJ/AJ or a diamond/OESD. Obviously, we're still very strong on a coordinated board, but our goal should be to deny odds, not to commit ourselves to a pot that we're out of position in with just one pair against an unknown villain that probably has a good idea of what we have. It's possible he's stacking off with top pair or a flush draw here, but it's unlikely. If he is, buddylist him for sure, because he's an easy source of money.

Again, the board is very coordinated and a lot of his potential holdings are still drawing to beat us, so we definitely need to be trying to get two streets of value out of this. In my experience, most draws will call almost any size bet on the flop, but fold on the turn to a big bet. For this reason, I think betting 3$ is the MINIMUM here, and I prefer 3.5 to 4 on the flop. Once you're called, you've already denied him odds and with just one card to come, it doesn't take nearly enough to be denying him these odds. Betting about 6$ into 10 on the turn is more than enough, and without a read on how bad villain is, it's more likely to keep the hands that we're ahead of interested in the pot.

As it's played, checking the river simply allows a negative freeroll--he checks behind with those hands we are beating, and pushes when he's got us beat. I don't think we're necessarily ahead even on the turn the way the action went down, and I think both JT and 44 are likely holdings for him, but we're not folding getting 4:1 pot odds so pushing all in is clearly the best play.

If you were to replay the hand vs an unknown, I think the correct play would be to not make any assumptions as to his skill level, and bet pot on the flop, and then 2/3 pot on the turn. 4 into 4, then 8 into 12. You're still pushing ANY river, because the pot's too big to fold at that point, but you've better extracted value from weaker made hands.

Note that with a read that villain was a donkey calling station that couldn't laydown top pair to multiple streets of value, then your line would be perfectly acceptable; I just don't like it vs. an unknown.

[mickii]

doubtful he is holding J10 since we were unraised on the flop. two pair tends to be a hand ppl protect with raises, where they smooth call with sets.