crying call ? 78s OOP baby flush vs running Aces

[matrix]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $12.25
UTG+1: $7.70
CO: $25.25
Button: $23.05
Hero: $36.35
BB: $65.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $1</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($4, 4 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $2.5</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($11.5, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 calls all-in $4.2</font>.

River: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($25.7, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $24.1, Sidepot 1: $1.6)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $6</font>, Hero calls.

yeah yeah I know fold preflop.

seeing as I didn't and have got myself into this mess I gotta call here right??

shortstack is an idiot.

villain has AK/AQ/AJ I think - probably AQ going by flop action I suppose.

Does he have trips bad kicker often enough here to make the call - or is the river a clear fold?

Don't care what shortstack has who is *terrible* - if I had to guess I'd say a set or a better flush than me. He insta-called the turn.

BB is 34/17/1.5 loose/passive

[barryc83]

I think you have to call the river given those odds. I'd probably lead the river for value honestly. He's shown zero strength in this hand and you could very well have the best hand.

Yes, fold pf. I've been making these calls pf and getting in these spots that couldve been avoided by just folding pf.

[EMc]

PF is fine matrix, you have the experience to play this hand postflop.

Valueblock the river?

[Supwithbates]

[ QUOTE ]
PF is fine matrix, you have the experience to play this hand postflop.

Valueblock the river?

[/ QUOTE ]
I was going to say, I never fold suited connectors in a family pot like this, even OOP I think I can get enough value for a positive expectation.

[Pokey]

Preflop is unfortunate, but completely understandable and correct. I'd complete that every day of the week. After BB raises you're closing the action with your overcall, your hand does not suffer from domination issues, and you've got wicked pot- and implied-odds. Sigh and call.

Given your reads I think I like a CRAI on the flop. You trap BB for a c-bet, you put him in an incredibly awkward situation where he's likely to fold even a good hand, you get massive pot odds on your draw (+EV) and you get great table image as a gamboooler. You WILL get called by shorty, so recognize that your table image is going to change; however, if you adjust accordingly that will be to your benefit.

As played, juice the turn more. I'd make it $9 or so -- hit BB where it hurts if he's got an ace or a queen (or both).

The river call is thin but +EV. Make your crying call and swear when he shows you AQ, but recognize that he could have AK or something stranger, and that you only need to have the best hand a tiny fraction of the time for calling to be +EV. That's why they call 'em crying: not because you expect to win, but because the rare wins are just often enough to be +EV over the long run.

[melioris]

I like preflop.

I think you make the decision on the flop. You have 12 outs again any made hand. If you think the dead money in the pot plus any FE is worth it, then you have to c/PSR on the flop. Esp considering BB is loose/passive and deep stacked. You are OOP, so get the money in earlier here, take control of this hand, and minimize your positional and stack disadvantage.

[matrix]

I tend toi fold these preflop often - I called this time thinking - ooh family pot lets get me some 4way implied odds r us action - once BB raises I plan on folding - until everyone else calls as well so now I gotta see the flop.

The more I think about it the more I like c/r-allin on the flop.

Turn: I figured BB was CB bluffing the flop so I bet enough to put shorty all-in expecting him to fold and leave the pot between shorty and me. I think I make more mistakes in pots where there's a shortstack who almost def going to be all-in by the river. Looking at it again I need to make a turn bet thats big enough to be +EV by itself for the times I am beat by the shortstack but beat BB and just scoop the side pot.

As played I've "invested" ~$8 by the river and the sidepots only $1.60 - better to bet more on the turn and hopefully pot commit deep stacked LP villain so he calls a nice fat river value bet again with his TPTK/2pair hand

[ajmargarine]

Matty:

PF is perfectly fine. You limp which is good. It gets raised, action will be 4-way with you closing it. Calling here is standard. Folding in either of your preflop spots would be a mistake.

--aj

[matrix]

just been reviewing this hand some more .....

and the reason I'm still not a fan of completing so much here is the stack sizes of UTG &amp; UTG+1.

if one of them had 100BB I'd agree that completing is goot. As it is I'm only really getting juicy implied odds from BB (who I was expecting to check) - once it's raised and everyone calls I have to call preflop but I'm not happy about it.

I still auto fold here if there's only 1 limper in front of me - tho I feel that sc's (and particularly 76s and 78s) are a must play hand with 2 limpers on soft tables where I can usually pwn people post flop. Perhaps I ought to start completing with 1 limper in front as well - meh.

This is one of the few hands I've played recently where I felt a bit lost as to what to do hence my posting it - and yeah I played the turn pretty badly here I think.

Oh and I think BB is 2p2 as well - and obv he tables AQ and I got up and left after this hand. (not cos I lost - but because I wasn't comfortable playing with some deep 2p2 guy on my left when I can go sit at other tables where everyones a donk)

a bit miffed that shorty had JTss and had me beat as well but hey /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ADK]

would it be wrong to re-raise on flop here?

[corsakh]

You call preflop because:

1) the bb raise is laughable;
2) there are many callers;
3) you have relative position on the raiser.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
You call preflop because:

1) the bb raise is laughable;
2) there are many callers;
3) you are closing the preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

true.

The bit I'm thinking about tho is where I complete before BB acts with 2 limpers in front.

if both those limpers have ~100BB it's an auto complete - hell if one of them does it's an auto limp - with them both being short I think it's close and I'm not sure completing is good tbh - maybe I'm being too much of a nit /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[corsakh]

Implied odds is not the reason you call here. You are not gonna payed off too often with a monster, other than due to your relative position to the raiser, when he cbets and one of the UTG's calls or even raises. You are mainly calling for pot odds and the reasons I outlined above.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Implied odds is not the reason you call here. You are mainly calling for pot odds and the reasons I outlined above.

[/ QUOTE ]

See I think pot odds alone is a bad reason to call from the SB and that implied odds are way more important.

here is a slightly diff example... [note stack sizes]

this time I've cut the action where the point of my question is - first time around before BB gets to act - and for both of these Hero is TAG - BB is LoosePassive and I expect him to check almost always, both limpers are donks...

example a)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $10.00
UTG+1: $7.70

Hero: $25.00
BB: $65.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero ???

do you complete here ? - and why??

example b) - [again note stack sizes]

Stack sizes:
UTG: $24.75
UTG+1: $27.70

Hero: $25.25
BB: $40.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero ???

do you complete here? - and why??

for either of these two new examples is raising preflop a better play - and why??

[VPIP100]

Preflop is fine, anything else would be bad.

When I reviewed the hand I was thinking about a check-raise on the flop trying to get it all in vs shorty with lots of BB dead money in the pot. This situation also makes sure you can only make one +EV decision and not facing a tough decision on later streets.

So I agree with pokey.

Also, if you hit, you will always get called by one shortie, I even complete this with 1 limper because I believe I can win this more than 1/4th of the time. (pot is 0,60, costs you 0,15 more to call). After BB limps a call is standard.

[corsakh]

How do you understand implied odds?

Its basicly a relation of the bet to the effetive stack size that comebined with you odds to hit a monster helps you understand how many times you can afford to make this call before stacking your opponent.

Now, you chances to stack an opponent from OOP, unless he is a total fish, are really diminished. Especially the flush part. So you not gonna get paid off that often and you definitely can not rely on this.

And in regards to pot odds.. This is just funny /images/graemlins/smile.gif Since you close the action, you can see if you have them or you dont. Its a grade 2 elmentary math problem /images/graemlins/smile.gif If you have pot odds to make a call and you are folding, unless the table is extremly aggro postflop, you are just loosing money as far as I am concerned.

[corsakh]

Raising is not a good idea. Certainly complete both hands.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Certainly complete both hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

[corsakh]

Pot odds. Here is a break down (say for simplicity both limpers have any broadway, any ace, any pair, any sc or any suited A, K or Q). In rality they can often include K-rag, 74o and all sorts of grabage.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.739% 22.82% 00.92% 245684 9877.42 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 27.777% 26.48% 01.30% 285086 13948.92 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T6s+, 95s+, 84s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 27.758% 26.46% 01.30% 284862 13969.58 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T6s+, 95s+, 84s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 20.726% 19.63% 01.09% 211336 11787.08 { random }

24 to a 100 is about 1 to 3. You are getting 1 to 7. Maybe their range is a lot tighter. Sometimes you will be bluffed out of the best hand because of your position. Sometimes the BB will raise you and you wont have odds to call. Even if all these bad scenarios happen 60% of the time you are still going to break even. Now combine this with a little bit of implied odds, a bet or two here and there, and you get your profit.

[VPIP100]

Glad you pointed that out corsakh,

also add that you probably have an edge vs the other players make this a small +EV decision, but will occur a lot.

[matrix]

OK I see that pot odds seem to be suggesting we call here..

but in reality we don't makea winning hand all that often.

If we assume that on uNL tables the villains call too often and our FE ius much lower then more often than not we will need to make the best hand at SD to win the pot - we can't use aggression here as we limped into the pot.

Bearing that in mind:

we will flop a straight ~1% of the time (best case scenario)
we will flop a flush 0.8% of the time - this isn't so good as osometimes if we get action our hand is an expensive 2nd best and we have little control of the potsize as we are OOP.

we flop an 8 out straight draw ~10% of the time - and of those times we hit ~1/4 of them (tho the idiot end might also end up being a 2nd best hand)

we flop a 9 out flush draw ~11% of the time

we flop trips 1.5% of the time

we flop 2pair 2% of the time.

so we have a good hand 6% of the time that usually we are happy to felt.

we flop a good draw ~20% of the time - but playing draws OOP sucks - so to balance that lets say we flop a draw we actually can/want to play 10% of the time

Those poker stove #'s are when all 5 cards are dealt - but we only continue past ~16% of flops - thats about 5:1 and we only flop hard 6% of the time thats ~15:1

Now we have to figure implied odds as well - will we get paid enough chips the times we flop the effective nuts (15:1) to make our call worthwhile?

given that we are assuming these guys call too much - probably yes - but only just.

What it boils down to basically for me is that it might very well be correct optimal play EV wise to complete both example a) and b) - but the payoff and the profit you make I think is often only just +EV so I'd fold example a) more often - whereas I call example b) all day.

Playing NL I want to win stacks - there is much less opportunity to win a stack playing OOP. There is even less opportunity to do so when 2 of the 3 villains in the hand are shortstacked.

OOP I can't control the pot - I can't heap pressure on my opponents and win small pots often without a hand I am relying solely on hand strength - while SC's are great hands to play and have higher equity than many other hands we are dealt I try not to think "ooh a sc - I must see a flop" or "pot odds say I must call here" and first work out how profitable it might be to see this flop before I decide whether to throw in my 1 extra chip from the SB. I don't rank preflop potodds all that highly on my list of priorities - I often make preflop calls in position with insufficient odds as I can make that up postflop and then some. I think opponents stack sizes - and how opponents play postflop are much more important to think about before looking at the pot odds I am offered preflop.

If I am making an EV mistake with this play it's a small one I think - and not one I make often. I am sacrificing I think a small amount of EV for making my play much harder to play against (I play almost all the hands I do play in positin) and lower variance.

[corsakh]

You are right.