10NL flopped set facing probable straight

[Supwithbates]

When I saw the turn peel off I was like bleh, but then I had hope because he couldn't have called a flop PSB with a gutshot, right? Right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($8.45)
BB ($13.65)
UTG ($6.40)
Hero ($10.75)
CO ($9.75)
Button ($9.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30.

Flop: ($1.20) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, SB calls $1, BB folds.

Turn: ($3.20) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $7.05 (All-In)</font>

Villain is loose/passive preflop and slightly less loose postflop. I've only seen him do this kind of overbet shove once before, and it was repping a draw coming in then too, but opponent folded so I never saw.

I'd put his range at having 55 or a 7 (who knows if he's calling with a naked 7 or needs a pair too, maybe 87, 67, 77). I have as many 10 outs to win if I'm behind and as many as 3 more to split, but it really looks like I'm behind and it's a pretty significant overbet... is this a time to fold the set?

Edit: Looking back, multiway vs. loose opponents on this board I should probably be betting more because there's not many weaker made hands that hit this flop, either they've flopped an overpair/2pair/set and we're getting it in, or they have a draw that needs to be priced out.

I don't think 1$ is a significant leak but it is losing value, I think 1.5$ would actually be better on this board.

[RollTide77]

Normally $1 on the flop in this pot is fine to me. But with draws I always bet at least the pot. If he's got it then he'll have A7s. If he had 55 or 88 he would have bet the flop.

When it gets to the shove I probably make the call since he's short. If he had a straight with no FDs on the board why would he shove? Only hand that beats him is T9 and if you had that you wouldn't have bet the flop so I call.

[VPIP100]

I sometimes bet the flop with T9, depends.

Hes short, but not versus the pot, that argument doesn't make any sense. You have 10 outs (you probably need) and you don't get the odds.

[Dave I]

[ QUOTE ]
When I saw the turn peel off I was like bleh, but then I had hope because he couldn't have called a flop PSB with a gutshot, right? Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. You can safely fold this. Damn it, I hate folding sets.

[Atlanta Andrew]

I would call.

You need roughly 40% equity to break even. Your 10 outs get you about 20% equity, and I think that villain is bluffing or has a worse hand at least 1/5 times. The only time we are completely toast is when villain has 88, but I'm willing to take that risk here. For each time villain has 88, he has 44 or 55 almost as often, and hero's equity is enormous against those two hands.

Oh yeah...also should factor that we usually have 2-3 outs to split against a seven.

-Andrew