NL50 6max: trouble with pot control OOP, 99 overpair

[Smilin']

Don't have any really specific reads on Villain, but he's loose--71/12/1.9 over a small sample of 40 hands or so. I haven't really seen enough to know how much tighter his range is for calling raises, but I don't think it's narrow. No solid reads on postflop play; I was kind of focused on a different table and mostly playing this one by stats.

I wanted to keep the pot in control but not let myself get bluffed off it. I thought betting the turn and checking the river made more sense than the reverse, because it's awkward if he bets the turn and I don't want to give free cards. But when the river is an A, should I just bet it to push out pocket pairs and not show weakness? Or should I check/fold turn because of RIO? Basically folding seems wrong given his donkiness, but getting all in seems wrong too, and I couldn't figure out how to navigate a middle path.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $78.30
CO: $16.70
Button: $54.30
SB: $30.20
BB: $44.75

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5.25</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($18.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $10</font>, Button calls.

River: A/images/graemlins/club.gif ($38.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button is all-in $37.05</font>, Hero folds.

[rakes.a.beach]

I think folding is correct. He can have A2, 35, a bunch of crap. There's no flush draw so it's not a desperation play. Folding seems correct to me.

[Smilin']

Just to clarify: I'm wondering about the line for the entire hand, not just the river. It seems right that I should fold river after I go bet/bet/check and he pushes, but should I be in that situation in the first place?

[eigenvalue]

It's a common mistake I see here again and again in some posts: If you are in a multi way pot and you think it's likely that you are ahead, then you can't bet the normal amount you would bet heads up. If you want to bet that flop, make a huge overbet! Betting only 2/3 of the pot here is way to thin, because you give pot odds to anyone to draw to anything after one player calls your bet. So make it $15 - $20 to go here and try to end that hand right now. If that bet is called, we are in serious trouble and I would assume we are beaten. But it will be very hard for every drawing hand to call that bet, so we will be able to take the pot down right now most times.

[emeraldice]

i like your line...i'd probably check turn, check river, folding to a big bet
river ez fold

[prodonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a common mistake I see here again and again in some posts: If you are in a multi way pot and you think it's likely that you are ahead, then you can't bet the normal amount you would bet heads up. If you want to bet that flop, make a huge overbet! Betting only 2/3 of the pot here is way to thin, because you give pot odds to anyone to draw to anything after one player calls your bet. So make it $15 - $20 to go here and try to end that hand right now. If that bet is called, we are in serious trouble and I would assume we are beaten. But it will be very hard for every drawing hand to call that bet, so we will be able to take the pot down right now most times.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like that idea at all.. It's a 224 rainbow flop.. what draws are there? You want to fire out for 2x+ pot that's crazy. I'd bet full pot on the flop but no need to go crazy. Why waste $20 to find out if you're beaten.

Betting full pot and having the button smooth call you should send off some warning bells right there. What is he doing this with. Some tards might do it with overcards.. he seems pretty loose but it's a small sample.. 6's got ahead of you on the turn, so you only beat stuff like 5's 7's 8's and AK, AQ.. and on the river AK and AQ got there if he's that big of a donkey. I seriously doubt he's making that bet on the river with anything you beat.. most likely he has 44.

I think OP played this hand fairly well, although I'd bet a little more on the flop.

[Tiki]

Like others have said, bet more on flop versus 3 opponents.

As for the river, I'd agree with how you felt at the time. Folding does seem OK but let me elaborate.

Picking off bluffs on the end can be very profitable versus the right opponent. I tend to look for very loose opponents who have a high frequency of betting when checked to on the river (AFreq river PAHUD). Bet-sizing CAN also be a tell.

[Pontus]

To make my first post:

I think that Button has got something that he thinks beats your hand. Like AXo. He could have flopped a pair, not willing to give it up because he thinks that you are bluffing with just about anything like KTo or better. When that Ace is coming up he might have two pairs, believing that you will call his hand, so I'd say that you're beaten.
Else he's just one of those guys trying to get the flop on a scarecard.

The pot bet is, like said before, a little small.
If I'd bet at all on the Turn, I'd probably try to push quite a bunch of chips in there, so that he won't keep drawing with Ace high and maybe hit something on the river.
On the river, I'd fold.

[kazana]

I like your line. And I wouldn't mind if you bet only half pot on the flop. There are no obvious draws, and I don't like the idea of overbetting the flop at all. You'll get no value out of the hands that are behind, and only called by better hands and you won't fold out many (if any) better hands, either.
Realize, that you want people to call your flop bet with Ace high unimproved.

The river card is ugly, but I would consider putting out a blocking bet nevertheless. If you suspect villain to be smart enough to realize that you're blocking, then checking may be better.

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
I like your line. And I wouldn't mind if you bet only half pot on the flop. There are no obvious draws, and I don't like the idea of overbetting the flop at all. You'll get no value out of the hands that are behind, and only called by better hands and you won't fold out many (if any) better hands, either.
Realize, that you want people to call your flop bet with Ace high unimproved.

The river card is ugly, but I would consider putting out a blocking bet nevertheless. If you suspect villain to be smart enough to realize that you're blocking, then checking may be better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about blocking river... problem is, if I block for ~1/2 pot, am I folding to a minraise (which is the same as all in)? And if I'm blocking much less than 1/2 pot, I'm concerned that looks weak sauce and might induce a bluff push even more than checking.

I suspect Villain isn't all that smart. The real question is, how aggro is he? And the problem is that I don't really know....

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
Like others have said, bet more on flop versus 3 opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not replying to you specifically, just to this comment.

I'm reluctant to bet 2x pot here--maybe I should, but put that aside. I do see a lot of merit in making a pot-sized bet. However, the problem is that, given stack sizes, if I'm called I think I either have to check both the turn and the river or decide to get it all in. In my mind, the question is whether I can exert better pot control by making smallish but reasonable flop and turn bets, or by making a big flop bet and then checking the turn. Maybe it's the latter, because taking the pot down on the flop is the ultimate pot control. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Still kind of unclear to me, though.