50NL: Help, I have no idea how to play for stacks

[RunDownHouse]

Villain is a 20/10 (200hands) multitabler. We haven't butted heads, but as you can see by the stacks, we're both winning pots. When he donked I put him on either a draw, hoping I'd fold overs, top pair (MP is so unlikely since I've got 3 of them), or an overpair (I guess a MP like 88 is possible). A set is also pretty unlikely, and if its set over set, then I guess one of us gets stacked. Given this range, I tried to decide how to get all the money in.

I decided on a weak raise for a couple reasons: to give him a chance to sniff weakness and come over the top with whatever, or to suck him into a call with pairs better than 55 (maybe a decent reg never calls even a weak raise without A9 here?).

So what's the best way to get all the money in the middle? Call and raise most turns? I don't really see waiting until the river to put in a raise as a good line because not only does he get his two shots at draws for whatever price he wants, whenever he's got a draw he's rarely going to three barrel me. Or is my line perfectly ok?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
Hero: $76
UTG+1: $64.40
CO: $50
Button: $30.65
SB: $5.55
BB: $89.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif ($4.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $3</font>, Hero...

[prodonkey]

I raise right there normally.. depends on his agression. Flush draws don't get cheap cards by donk betting into me. You never know.. maybe he has TT/JJ or A9 and will think you are full of crap with your obvious AK.

[syphlix]

raise it up.... make it 14 bucks!

[gumpzilla]

If he does have only overs, the chances of your getting all the money in the middle are pretty poor. If he has an overpair, there are a variety of scare cards that will slow him down, and he'll pay a flop raise. All of this seems to suggest raising the flop as the best plan of action.

[Check_The_Nuts]

I don't like a small flop raise since your too deep. Better to jam flops like this with draws+sets to apply pressure to his possible overpairs etc. If he overcalled preflop with KK or AA I have a hard time thinking he'll fold here.

[spacetime]

Don't let draws see cheap cards. He is going to be making this bet with a flush draw, TPTK, TPGK, 2 pair seems unlikely, 67s+ is likely as well.

Make it 9 to go and see what he does. I personally think he is just trying to take your pot away hoping you have air.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't let draws see cheap cards. He is going to be making this bet with a flush draw, TPTK, TPGK, 2 pair seems unlikely, 67s+ is likely as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your range is wrong. I don't think he ever has two pair/TPGK here. I think his range is heavily weighted towards mediocre overpairs, big draws like AKdd/AQdd, and sets. His air is mostly SC, which I doubt he calls with that often (if ever).

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a small flop raise since your too deep. Better to jam flops like this with draws+sets to apply pressure to his possible overpairs etc. If he overcalled preflop with KK or AA I have a hard time thinking he'll fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? Why exactly do we want to "apply pressure" to TT-QQ here? Shoving this flop 150 bets deep at this level seems to me like it's announcing that you either have a set or 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. If AA and KK are less likely because he didn't reraise PF, this is essentially giving up altogether on putting more money in, because he's going to toss just about everything else. If you make a smaller raise, he might at least consider calling the flop and seeing what you do on the turn.

[spacetime]

Ill agree with you on the TPGK, and I am not sure why I did not include over pairs as that is the most likely hand.

And yes, over card flush draws are big here too.

Bottom line is, we need to raise here.

[Check_The_Nuts]

gump - it didn't really hit me that I was wrong until I put him on a hand range. Wow I'm 1st level :/, to be fair you said raise flop above too :P. I honestly think I like a flat call on the flop more now.

If he has a draw, and hits on the turn, we can redraw. If he has a big draw like AK/AQ etc., he may hit on the turn and think he's good (since we raise with sets and overpairs, right?).

Raising must have its place here, I'm just having a hard time thinking of a raising range that will make villian want to lead/3bet all in with his mediocre overpairs, unless we raise with air a lot when we hold AKo/AQo etc....

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
gump - it didn't really hit me that I was wrong until I put him on a hand range. Wow I'm 1st level :/, to be fair you said raise flop above too :P. I honestly think I like a flat call on the flop more now.

[/ QUOTE ]

We aren't going to get stacks very often with those mediocre overpairs. It's not really a realistic goal. I think raising on the flop is fine, still, but pushing $70 into a $7 pot isn't the way to go about it. You can raise modestly here - to $13 would probably be a pretty good number - and get looked up by some of those overpairs.

[EMc]

RDH,

Raise here is a must. Couple of reasons

-Value. If he has an overpair, we arent stacking him by calling.
-Protection. This villain may have diamonds. we need to keep our hand good.
-Metagame. We can raise draws too here, and villain needs to know we are raising both made hands and draws.

Also too, if he doesnt call a raise, he wasnt stacking off to you anyway.

[dirtysanchez]

[ QUOTE ]
RDH,

Raise here is a must. Couple of reasons

-Value. If he has an overpair, we arent stacking him by calling.
-Protection. This villain may have diamonds. we need to keep our hand good.
-Metagame. We can raise draws and air too here, and villain needs to know we are raising both made hands and draws.

Also too, if he doesnt call a raise, he wasnt stacking off to you anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree with everything else

[eigenvalue]

This is an easy and obvious decision: You have to reraise to something like $10 because a flush draw is out there. On a board without any draws, it might be better to call and earn another bet on the turn - before reraising there. But never do it with possible straight or flush draws out there!

[AKQJ]

I raise this 3x or more to protect your hand against flush draw. If he is capable to call that, he is in a flush draw.

If the same flop was rainbow, I would just call, he will fire again on the turn. Then push him all-in. It would be hard for him to fold. +1 Buy-in

[Nick C]

What I generally do is raise it to about $13 and then get disappointed when Villain folds.

[RunDownHouse]

Thanks all. I raised to $14 and he folded.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]


-Metagame. We can raise draws and air too here,



[/ QUOTE ]

how often are you raising air here??

I think raising air is spew - and that at these limits metagame isn't important enough as many of the villains don't stay at the tables long enough - or have enough of a clue to adjust.

I think raising draws and made hands is plenty enough metagame - so why add air into the mix?

OP:

I call here 50% and raise 50% - diamonds miss the turn 3 out of 4 times and I can live with getting outdrawn if they hit and he bets the turn (in that case I'd call again and hope to boat up if I haven't already - tho that lands us in a tough spot if we brick the turn and he bets river as well)

the times I raise I make it enough to make it incorrect for him to call with a fd but no more than that.

In this hand I'd raise it to $9

that leaves him facing a call of $6 into a pot of $16.25 or 2.7:1 odds - which is a mistake if he calls with a fd

$14 is NOT a weak raise and he isn't calling that without an overpair or a set (if he has one of those hands the money's probably going all-in regardless on the turn provided an undercard to his overpair turns up)

We can also profitably call a turn bet here if a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif lands cos he'll probably check the turn to us if he makes a big hand thinking we'll bet again and he can c/r. So if the /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits and he 2/3rds pots it there's a good chance he's semi bluffing a pair with one diamond and not an actual flush.

We aren't getting much out of him anyway if he has nothing - but there's a reasonable chance he turns a 2nd best hand (and we have a set and can take a little heat) so I think a call here is OK.

I think the vast majority of the time he has whiffed overcards here and is CB bluffing. Let him spike TP on the turn and suddenly think his hand is goot.

[dirtysanchez]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


-Metagame. We can raise draws and air too here,



[/ QUOTE ]

how often are you raising air here??

I think raising air is spew - and that at these limits metagame isn't important enough as many of the villains don't stay at the tables long enough - or have enough of a clue to adjust.

I think raising draws and made hands is plenty enough metagame - so why add air into the mix?

OP:

I call here 50% and raise 50% - diamonds miss the turn 3 out of 4 times and I can live with getting outdrawn if they hit and he bets the turn (in that case I'd call again and hope to boat up if I haven't already - tho that lands us in a tough spot if we brick the turn and he bets river as well)

the times I raise I make it enough to make it incorrect for him to call with a fd but no more than that.

In this hand I'd raise it to $9

that leaves him facing a call of $6 into a pot of $16.25 or 2.7:1 odds - which is a mistake if he calls with a fd

$14 is NOT a weak raise and he isn't calling that without an overpair or a set (if he has one of those hands the money's probably going all-in regardless on the turn provided an undercard to his overpair turns up)

We can also profitably call a turn bet here if a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif lands cos he'll probably check the turn to us if he makes a big hand thinking we'll bet again and he can c/r. So if the /images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits and he 2/3rds pots it there's a good chance he's semi bluffing a pair with one diamond and not an actual flush.

We aren't getting much out of him anyway if he has nothing - but there's a reasonable chance he turns a 2nd best hand (and we have a set and can take a little heat) so I think a call here is OK.

I think the vast majority of the time he has whiffed overcards here and is CB bluffing. Let him spike TP on the turn and suddenly think his hand is goot.

[/ QUOTE ]

well he donkbet here, and at these levels thats usually not a made hand (which would generally c/r to pick our c-bet). i raise a lot of the time when people donk into me w/ whatever i raised with even if it misses the board. im less likely to do it vs this villain, but ill still mix it in. i agree with you from a metagame standpoint, i just think theres a lot of value in raising donkbets fairly often b/c you will very often pick up the pot.

[KungFuManchu]

raise and also raise if you just have nothing/overs (unless hes a huge call station). commitment and consistency tells a strong story and this is a situation unless he flopped a set or for whatever reason has QQ, will win you the pot here or on the turn(meaning if u had a really great/strong hand...thats how youd want to play it even if you didnt have a strong/great hand). Either way, unless he has a set or QQ, is he going to be willing to risk his stack on whatever he is holding?

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


-Metagame. We can raise draws and air too here,



[/ QUOTE ]

how often are you raising air here??



[/ QUOTE ]i just think theres a lot of value in raising donkbets fairly often b/c you will very often pick up the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - and that is precisely why I call so often in the OP hand.

I think perhaps we define "air" differently as well /images/graemlins/smile.gif

say I raise pre with AQ - flop comes rags and I get donked into.

I raise lots here as a semi bluff cos often I have a 6 out draw and expect to take the pot often (either cos he calls my raise with a 1pair hand that I draw out on - or he just folds) - the "Supersystem" mentality (that I see a lot of donks playing at these limits) is that you donk into a pfr with a top hand like a set - in which case he'll often push OTT of my flop bet and I get away cheap....

I would define "air" as no pair no draw JThh on a 7sQd6s or something like that - if we got a gutshot draw or better then to me that's not air - raising air is pure bluffing.

At limits like these where people call too much, pure bluffing I think is -EV.

[dirtysanchez]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


-Metagame. We can raise draws and air too here,



[/ QUOTE ]

how often are you raising air here??



[/ QUOTE ]i just think theres a lot of value in raising donkbets fairly often b/c you will very often pick up the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - and that is precisely why I call so often in the OP hand.

I think perhaps we define "air" differently as well /images/graemlins/smile.gif

say I raise pre with AQ - flop comes rags and I get donked into.

I raise lots here as a semi bluff cos often I have a 6 out draw and expect to take the pot often (either cos he calls my raise with a 1pair hand that I draw out on - or he just folds) - the "Supersystem" mentality (that I see a lot of donks playing at these limits) is that you donk into a pfr with a top hand like a set - in which case he'll often push OTT of my flop bet and I get away cheap....

I would define "air" as no pair no draw JThh on a 7sQd6s or something like that - if we got a gutshot draw or better then to me that's not air - raising air is pure bluffing.

At limits like these where people call too much, pure bluffing I think is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, im about a million X more likely to do this w/ two overs. as far as no pair no draw no overcards, id still do that when a fish donkbets for like 1/5 pot, but not so much vs a somewhat decent player leading for 3/4 pot. By air i just meant no pair and no flush/open-ended/double-gutter draws

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
We aren't going to get stacks very often with those mediocre overpairs. It's not really a realistic goal. I think raising on the flop is fine, still, but pushing $70 into a $7 pot isn't the way to go about it. You can raise modestly here - to $13 would probably be a pretty good number - and get looked up by some of those overpairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said nor implied this. My default is to raise of course. I agree that raising here with airy hands is important if you think he won't call with his mediocre overpairs.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

that leaves him facing a call of $6 into a pot of $16.25 or 2.7:1 odds - which is a mistake if he calls with a fd

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's a mistake at all for him to call at that price with a flush draw. We started the hand 150 BBs deep, so there's still a lot of money behind at this point. Are you planning on folding if he leads a diamond turn? If not, he's almost certainly got the implied odds to take a card here.