IsaacAsimov
02-22-2007, 09:10 PM
Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)
<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BB: $55.15
Hero (UTG): $72.85
MP: $44.25
CO: $50.35
BTN: $38.60
SB: $71.6
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> A/images/graemlins/spade.gif Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif ($0.75, 6 players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, MP folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $6.50</font>, Hero calls $4.75
<font color="black">Flop:</font> T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($13.25, 2 players)
<font color="red">BB bets $10</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all in to $66.35</font>
This is a hand analysis of mine that I think is correct, but I am posting anyway for those interested. I also think that some newer players might find this helpful.
Villain is 22.56/16.26/4.04 over 3.456k hands. He 3bets me light a lot, but I don't think he would do it against me when I am coming in for a raise from UTG. I still decide to call (the most questionable part of my play, I called because I have position and I think I have a good idea of how villain plays).
The reason why I call my preflop call questionable is because of the tight range I am putting villain on, but which I have decent equity against on this flop against as you can see in my stove results below.
---
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
17,820 games 0.320 secs 55,687 games/sec
Board: Ts 3s Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.687% 45.41% 00.28% 8092 49.50 { AsQd }
Hand 1: 54.313% 54.03% 00.28% 9629 49.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
---
My EV against the above range without FE:
0.45687*62.4$-0.54313*49.15$ = +1.814$ which makes my move profitable without FE
If I estimate to have 10% FE against villain my EV is the following:
0.1*23.25$+0.9*0.45687*32.4$-0.9*0.54313*49.15$ = +3.96$
Since my move is profitable without FE against villains range, I do not need to calculate the break even point of my move with FE.
Therfore I am assigning a certain probability to each of villains holdings.
The range I put him on is AKs,AKo,QQ+. I doubt this opponent is ever folding KK,AA or AKs and AKo and always folding QQ.
There are 3 combinations of AA, 9 combinations of AKs and o, 3 combinations of KK and 3 combinatons of QQ. This makes for a total of 18 possible combinations that villain could hold.
3 combinations of queens from 18 total = 16.67 %.
That means my FE is 16.67 %. My EV with 16.67 % FE:
0.1667*23.25 + 0.8333*0.45687*62.4$ - 0.8333*0.54313*49.15 = +5.387$
Which is roughly + 10 BB.
Thanks for reading.
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)
<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BB: $55.15
Hero (UTG): $72.85
MP: $44.25
CO: $50.35
BTN: $38.60
SB: $71.6
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> A/images/graemlins/spade.gif Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif ($0.75, 6 players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, MP folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $6.50</font>, Hero calls $4.75
<font color="black">Flop:</font> T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($13.25, 2 players)
<font color="red">BB bets $10</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all in to $66.35</font>
This is a hand analysis of mine that I think is correct, but I am posting anyway for those interested. I also think that some newer players might find this helpful.
Villain is 22.56/16.26/4.04 over 3.456k hands. He 3bets me light a lot, but I don't think he would do it against me when I am coming in for a raise from UTG. I still decide to call (the most questionable part of my play, I called because I have position and I think I have a good idea of how villain plays).
The reason why I call my preflop call questionable is because of the tight range I am putting villain on, but which I have decent equity against on this flop against as you can see in my stove results below.
---
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
17,820 games 0.320 secs 55,687 games/sec
Board: Ts 3s Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.687% 45.41% 00.28% 8092 49.50 { AsQd }
Hand 1: 54.313% 54.03% 00.28% 9629 49.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
---
My EV against the above range without FE:
0.45687*62.4$-0.54313*49.15$ = +1.814$ which makes my move profitable without FE
If I estimate to have 10% FE against villain my EV is the following:
0.1*23.25$+0.9*0.45687*32.4$-0.9*0.54313*49.15$ = +3.96$
Since my move is profitable without FE against villains range, I do not need to calculate the break even point of my move with FE.
Therfore I am assigning a certain probability to each of villains holdings.
The range I put him on is AKs,AKo,QQ+. I doubt this opponent is ever folding KK,AA or AKs and AKo and always folding QQ.
There are 3 combinations of AA, 9 combinations of AKs and o, 3 combinations of KK and 3 combinatons of QQ. This makes for a total of 18 possible combinations that villain could hold.
3 combinations of queens from 18 total = 16.67 %.
That means my FE is 16.67 %. My EV with 16.67 % FE:
0.1667*23.25 + 0.8333*0.45687*62.4$ - 0.8333*0.54313*49.15 = +5.387$
Which is roughly + 10 BB.
Thanks for reading.