10NL AQ on K high flop w/3 other callers

[RollTide77]

You gotta figure someone has a K right? So I call this down hoping to hit an A or something later. Bad move?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($6.35)
Hero ($11.20)
UTG ($14.40)
MP ($3.90)
CO ($5.60)
Button ($11.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $0.3</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.30, Button calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, UTG calls $0.70, CO calls $0.70, Button folds, SB calls $0.70.

Flop: ($4.30) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.2</font>, Hero calls $0.20, UTG folds, CO calls $0.20.

Turn: ($4.90) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.3</font>, Hero calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30.

River: ($5.80) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4.85 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds, CO folds.

Final Pot: $10.65

[Warteen]

Raise the flop and fold to a 3-bet. The only point in calling is hoping to improve on the turn, which probably isn't going to happen against this many players. You need to push some people out of this hand (hopefully all of them) instead of showing a ton of weakness after 3-betting preflop.

[VPIP100]

I agree with Warteen.

[RollTide77]

What hands am I hoping to push out? With 3 other players calling 10BB PF you gotta figure at least one of them has a K right? So he's not going to fold to a flop bet of $2-3 that I'll have to make. So then I've got $4 invested in the 2nd best hand that's not likely to improve instead of $1-2. Even if I represent an AA I doubt I'll get a fold unless an A hits on the board.

Or should I figure that the last 2 callers came in b/c of the pot odds?

[Pokey]

If you're reasonably certain that:

1. Someone has a K (a good guess), and
2. Nobody will raise behind you (table- and opponent-specific judgement call)

you're actually getting sufficient immediate pot odds on calling both the flop and turn bet. Here you've turned 2PTK into a drawing hand, but that's not the end of the world; you've got five outs to a winner and both times you're getting better than 15-to-1 odds, so you can safely call unless you're SURE you're dogmeat even if you improve (which I can't possibly believe here). Knowing that UTG and CO are passive (a big question-mark, given UTG's preflop raise) I could see making these calls. On the flop I could see making this call anyways in the hopes that nobody will raise behind (partly because they're afraid of their own shadows and partly because $10NL is a passive game where raises are rare).

The flop call and the turn call are both thin, but at the right table and with the right opponents I could safely call it +EV. As to the river, this smells like a busted draw (JT comes to mind), but with CO to act behind me I wouldn't call this bet. All-in bluffs are rare at $10NL, and this smells like a cowardly opponent who has decided to try and get maximum value for his K2 or similar crap. Considering that you never improved, I trust him and fold.