So You Flopped OESFD...

[Hoffma]

I have been seeing a lot of flopped ~15-outers here lately. While I haven't taken into consideration the possible level differences (10NL vs 25NL, etc), I have a few thoughts, and am simply looking for a reality check here. I just saw findingneema's OESFD thread after two or three nights of similar threads, and had to seek clarification on a few theory/strategy concepts that are running through my head.

I believe the very best reason to push a flop with 15 outs (and no made hand) is because you put your opponent on a made hand no stronger than a set and you believe he will call your push. I did some rough math recently, and I believe I determined a 15-outer to be a near 3:1 favorite in these situations, something like 74%. A push here seems to be a correct play which should be made every time. It also seems like an incredible rarity, however.

It seems that ultimately, as a player, you want to get away from pushing these flops as a standard part of a long term strategy. You should consider getting it all in on the flop with around 15 outs, but you should consider doing it as a way of mixing up your play, realizing that it's a high variance play. When you do try this play, you may want to use fold equity to your advantage, perhaps by 3betting AI. This seems to give you another way to win: You can win when you're called AND you draw out, or you win immediately when your opponent folds. You may also prefer to shove at such flops when you're short-stacked (or on the bubble in a tournament), and TPGK or a set can call easily.

Finding other ways to maximize postflop extraction seems to be the better strategy for the long haul, or perhaps a better strategy for deep stack play specifically. Now, maybe this DOES NOT APPLY to uNL. I imagine that level differences are a realm of constant speculation, with various levels occasionally shifting in difficulty. Regardless, this seems to be the dividing line between schools of thought here at uNL. Some players will ALWAYS get it in on the flop, and other players insist on other strategies.

These "other strategies" seem to take into consideration many more aspects of the individual situation, namely opponent ranges, stack sizes, and position. I would imagine that this school of thought generally advocates betting big on these flops, but not necessarily going over the top, as a way of pushing a typically enormous edge. These strategies treat this hand as drawing (which it is!) and re-evaluate on the turn. On a blank turn, these players may shove for fold equity when they miss. Other times, I would imagine that they hope to keep the street cheap in relation to the size of the pot, as a way of playing correctly according to implied odds. Still, It seems to me that you could correctly call a PSB on a missed turn when the effective stack sizes are at least three times the size of the pot, but my theory here is sketchy at best.

And that's it, those are my thoughts. What do you guys think?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe the very best reason to push a flop with 15 outs (and no made hand) is because you put your opponent on a made hand no stronger than a set and you believe he will call your push. I did some rough math recently, and I believe I determined a 15-outer to be a near 3:1 favorite in these situations, something like 74%. A push here seems to be a correct play which should be made every time. It also seems like an incredible rarity, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is way off. You're a slight favorite with a 15-outer and two cards to come, that's all, and that's assuming Villain has no redraws. You'll make your hand about 54 percent of the time.

Of course, if you may have additional outs as well, such as pair outs, your situation improves, but this possibility is a lot better when you're betting the flop than it is when you get raise, you push, and your push gets called.

[Jouster777]

The reason we push combo draws is the FE. We are about a coinflip to just about every hand that we are likely to be up against. Since we are a coinflip we don't mind the call but we prefer a fold (on average).

If we really were a big favorite (like 3:1) then a push would be terrible because we should bet less and extract value.

Pushing a combo draw is almost never "wrong" but it is not always the best course and features that might argue against a push include: a loose passive villain, IP, deep stacks, and hidden made hands.

[Hoffma]

[ QUOTE ]
This is way off. You're a slight favorite with a 15-outer and two cards to come, that's all, and that's assuming Villain has no redraws. You'll make your hand about 54 percent of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Now I see the error in my math. I miscalculated when I turned the chances of hitting the turn (31:15) into ~49%, which it is not. 15 is ~49% of 31, but those are clearly not the odds of hitting the turn. I then made the same mistake when calculating the odds of hitting the river. Whoops.

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing a combo draw is almost never "wrong" but it is not always the best course and features that might argue against a push include: a loose passive villain, IP, deep stacks, and hidden made hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Can you clarify what you mean by IP? "In Position"?

[Jouster777]

Yes...in position

Basically, all the factors that might make you call instead of push are ones that say you pay less to see the turn and river while still getting paid when you do hit.

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
These strategies treat this hand as drawing (which it is!)

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't make any difference whether you have a made hand or a draw. The only thing that matters is the EV of the play.

[weknowhowtolive]

I keep laughing at how people want to play this differently when you bet $3 and they call, its any different than them betting $3 and you calling. I understand you're getting improper odds, but you're still VP$IPing. It seems a little illogical that if by the end of the round, playing OOP, it actually matters who bet first as long as the money you're willing to commit is the same. You're warping how you use pot odds to actually play for the best EV possible in the long run on this hand.

Lets look at it like this:

Check - You gain no value. Your opponent does the betting now and you depend on him for the size of the bet, which may be improper odds.

Bet - You pick the size of the bet that you want your opponent to call, or, if you want a fold (why are you playing suited connectors if you want a fold with the best possible draw you can flop?) the optimal bet for a fold.
You can now safely bet an amount that will give a drawing hand improper odds, and still keep in any other hands, which you hope to bust.

If you miss the turn, you can reevaluate after a bet, check raise if you hit, or bet if you hit. Or C/F. You now only loose your original bet/call.

All In - You are now ONLY getting called by a very select few hands. You just over bet the pot by an insane amount, put all or most of your chips at risk, and any hand that SHOULD call is ahead. You're now hoping for a suck out and you're probably about 40%. This seems to mean that you need this hand to make 11% MORE than just betting...right?




The overall problem I see with pushing the flop is that it seems like a very weak move. It seems you're afraid to play suited connectors out of position which is fine...but why are you playing them then?

if you're willing to play them OOP, you should be blind stealing and c/f'ing or cbetting and c/fing. If you dont want to be in a position with the best draw you can possibly get with the hand you chose to see the flop with, you shouldnt be playing it. This seems very basic. Its the same as "if you dont feel comfortable raising this hand, fold it." The only exception should be a busted steal which you can safely dump.

But as it happens, you've played SCers OOP, got to the flop, and now hit the biggest draw you can possibly hit with this hand. Why are you wasting it and possibly losing money by simply pushing all in?


Lose a bet and another bet or a bet, called raise and a bet. Not your stack.

[weknowhowtolive]

Also I'd like to add that I find it ridiculous to give an opponent credit for understanding pot odds, implied odds and fold equity but not giving them credit for folding TPTK to a 50x PSB on an insanely draw heavy board. They are either insanely stupid or they are solid and understand these basics. They cant be both, and it is up to the player to decide this.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
I keep laughing at how people want to play this differently when you bet $3 and they call, its any different than them betting $3 and you calling.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can laugh all you want, but position makes a world of difference when you're playing a draw. Let's say you raise OTB with 67s, BB calls with A9o, and the flop brings 985 with 2 of your suit. Right now you are a 56.7% favorite. He checks, and you bet the pot. He calls. Turn is an offsuit 2 and he checks. Now you can decide whether to continue with your semi-bluff, or take the free card. You are now a 34% dog and a freecard play makes a lot of sense, unless this player is weak/tight and there is a chance he'll fold to a second barrell.

If you were OOP in the exact same scenario (you bet flop and he calls), then you'd have to decide whether to bet or call the turn before he acts. You can no longer get a free card, and if you check then villain can actually price you out of your draw with a good sized bet.

The big difference comes when you finally hit your draw. Let's say you checked the turn, and he bet 2/3rds pot, which you call. If the flush comes and your opponent can hand read you won't be extracting any reasonable amount from him on the river. Straight might be more hidden but he probably won't pay off enough to make your turn call better than breakeven.

And who bets and who calls also makes a ton of difference. Having and keeping the betting lead lets you control the hand. There is a silent agreement that the bettor has the best hand, and the caller is either drawing, calling a bluff or slowplaying. Until the caller shows some strength by raising, this "agreement" stands.

[ QUOTE ]
The overall problem I see with pushing the flop is that it seems like a very weak move. It seems you're afraid to play suited connectors out of position which is fine...but why are you playing them then?

[/ QUOTE ]
The reason we push the flop is because we are trying to mazimize our Expected Value (EV).

Same hand as before, but a little more detailed.

$0.5/1 NL - Hero has $100, villain covers.

Hero is in MP and holds 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Villain is OTB and holds A/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, Good TAG Villain calls, blinds fold.

Flop($9.5): T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero bets $7, villain raises to $20, Hero...

Right now you have 56.7% equity in the pot while villain has 43.3% equity. You can't realize that equity however without seeing both the turn and the river. Villains raise is offering you 2.8:1 pot odds and you have 15 outs to hit meaning you are about 1:2 so folding would be a mistake. But you aren't gaining that much EV by flat calling, because villain is TAG and won't pay you off if the board starts to look dangerous. You have the edge right now, but if you flat call and don't hit, you'll give your edge away, and villain can bet enough to price you out off your draw.

If you push, however you gain two things:
1. You put the money in as a favorite, thereby pushing your edge. This gains you EV.
2. You might induce your opponent to fold, which is a mistake for him. Remember that even though you are the favorite, your opponent does have equity in the current pot, and if he folds, he's giving up that equity(*). Getting him to fold maximizes our Expected Value by inducing the biggest mistake from our opponent and therefore, by the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, we gain.

(*) Villains EV for a fold is -$20. Villains EV for a call is 0.433 * 200 - 100 = -$13.4

[Sam Spade]

I was wondering what the Imperial Palace (http://www.imperialpalace.com/) had to do with this hand.

[Freelancer]

I read most of this thread and some of you are going on the right direction (the last post was really good btw /images/graemlins/wink.gif).

My idea's on this:

Advantages of b/3bAI;
1) With 100bb stacks you are maximizing FE, it looks very strong if you 3b a flop all in.
2) You have the most equity in the pot on the flop, the further you get in the hand (if you miss the turn) the lower you equity gets.
3) You always get to see 5 cards.

The downsides to b/3bAI;
1) If you have no FE your getting your money on a coinflip most of the time.
2) If the opponents doesn't raise it puts you in a tough situation on the turn.

Other possible lines;
c/r on the flop;
Very usefull against those TAG's who always c-bet the flop, you get there c-bet money and they'll fold most of there range. Downside is if your c/r gets called your usually in a tough spot on the turn.

c/c on the flop;
Usefull against calling stations who will pay of if you hit, these people provide you the implied odds you need and often give you proper direct odds as well (horrid betsizing). The downside is that you don't have another way to win the pot (the opponent doesn't get a oppertunity to fold). c/c is very usefull if you don't think you have any FE with a raise, note that as soon as your FE starts to increase a more agressive approach is better.

b/c on the flop.
This can be occasionally used when you have no FE on your 3bet and villain is giving you good odds to hit on the turn, this is very rare though and b/3bAI is never incorrect on the flop...


These are my thoughts on this, I hope it helps you out. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Warteen]

I don't mind a high-variance game (as long as I'm long-run +EV) and I love to push with big draws on the flop for a few reasons:
1) I'm getting my money in while I'm probably a favorite to win (or at worst, a slight underdog).
2) It's good for my image (and enables me to do the same thing with the nuts occasionally).
3) I won't be folded out on the turn.
4) It maximizes FE.

I know I'm not an advanced player yet, still making money at the 25 NL level, but to me, pushing combo draws = $$$$$.

[Montezuma21]

2) It's good for my image (and enables me to do the same thing with the nuts occasionally).

I think pushing combo draws is expected at the the 25NL level, so i don't think your image is likely to alter much. pushing non-combo draws and three betting light PF does alter your image , however. of course that's assuming they'll notice at all.

[Freelancer]

[ QUOTE ]

2) It's good for my image (and enables me to do the same thing with the nuts occasionally).

I think pushing combo draws is expected at the the 25NL level, so i don't think your image is likely to alter much. pushing non-combo draws and three betting light PF does alter your image , however. of course that's assuming they'll notice at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
It does alter your image, if people see you pushing and raising a lot they are WAY more likely to get suspicious of you and call you down light.

[Warteen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

2) It's good for my image (and enables me to do the same thing with the nuts occasionally).

I think pushing combo draws is expected at the the 25NL level, so i don't think your image is likely to alter much. pushing non-combo draws and three betting light PF does alter your image , however. of course that's assuming they'll notice at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
It does alter your image, if people see you pushing and raising a lot they are WAY more likely to get suspicious of you and call you down light.

[/ QUOTE ]

Additionally, my play is mostly on World Poker Exchange, where there are fewer players (and, IMO, better players) and they do notice. On a bigger site, this might not apply as much.

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]

2) It's good for my image (and enables me to do the same thing with the nuts occasionally).

I think pushing combo draws is expected at the the 25NL level, so i don't think your image is likely to alter much. pushing non-combo draws and three betting light PF does alter your image , however. of course that's assuming they'll notice at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite the contrary, many players call based on pot odds, they don't see that raising can be a better play.

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
Advantages of b/3bAI;
1) With 100bb stacks you are maximizing FE, it looks very strong if you 3b a flop all in.
2) You have the most equity in the pot on the flop, the further you get in the hand (if you miss the turn) the lower you equity gets.
3) You always get to see 5 cards.

The downsides to b/3bAI;
1) If you have no FE your getting your money on a coinflip most of the time.
2) If the opponents doesn't raise it puts you in a tough situation on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

I personally think b3b is advised way too much here, I may have misconceptions about villains' ranges though. Generally I think this play is best vs players who able to pull moves and if you see your c-bets getting picked off too much by the same player. However, in these situations, it's sometimes profitable to push any FD or OESD, since your 3-bet FE is likely to be high. I think 2p2 overestimates FE of the 3rd bet at our stakes.

In many other situations, I think 3b is a less optimal move. Sure, it's +EV, but other moves could be more profitable.

Also, I don't think the fact that you get to see 5 cards is much of a bonus, it's a neutral point IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
Other possible lines;
c/r on the flop;
Very usefull against those TAG's who always c-bet the flop, you get there c-bet money and they'll fold most of there range. Downside is if your c/r gets called your usually in a tough spot on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is probably best for picking off c-bets, though I don't think you need a hand as strong as OESFD, again, you can use a regular FD or OESD, since you have pretty high FE. I don't think turn will be a tough spot, if you check, villain will be reluctant to bet with a lone pair, fearing that you're trapping him. You can be sure you have near 0 FE, so you just check and play pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
c/c on the flop;
Usefull against calling stations who will pay of if you hit, these people provide you the implied odds you need and often give you proper direct odds as well (horrid betsizing). The downside is that you don't have another way to win the pot (the opponent doesn't get a oppertunity to fold). c/c is very usefull if you don't think you have any FE with a raise, note that as soon as your FE starts to increase a more agressive approach is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only problem is, as your FE approaches 0 and opponent becomes more and more passive, OESFD should be bet simply because it has <50% equity on the flop. You don't have to worry about turn bets taking you off your draw. Also, you're building the pot to push the river if you happen to hit the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
b/c on the flop.
This can be occasionally used when you have no FE on your 3bet and villain is giving you good odds to hit on the turn, this is very rare though and b/3bAI is never incorrect on the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this move is underutilized and 2p2 pretty much always seems to replace this with b3b. As FE of 3rd bet approaches 0 and the likelihood of being up against a monster increases, it becomes more profitable to call, hope to hit the turn, then get your money in as a very good favorite. Sure, the variance here is that you're going to miss 32/47 times (assuming a 15-outer), but the other 15 times you're getting the opponent's stack in and he's drawing to 10 outs.

I think it'll be interesting to analyze when to use b3b vs b/c situations by constructing a spreadsheet, perhaps I'll do this when i get home.

[weknowhowtolive]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I keep laughing at how people want to play this differently when you bet $3 and they call, its any different than them betting $3 and you calling.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can laugh all you want, but position makes a world of difference when you're playing a draw. Let's say you raise OTB with 67s, BB calls with A9o, and the flop brings 985 with 2 of your suit. Right now you are a 56.7% favorite. He checks, and you bet the pot. He calls. Turn is an offsuit 2 and he checks. Now you can decide whether to continue with your semi-bluff, or take the free card. You are now a 34% dog and a freecard play makes a lot of sense, unless this player is weak/tight and there is a chance he'll fold to a second barrell.

If you were OOP in the exact same scenario (you bet flop and he calls), then you'd have to decide whether to bet or call the turn before he acts. You can no longer get a free card, and if you check then villain can actually price you out of your draw with a good sized bet.

The big difference comes when you finally hit your draw. Let's say you checked the turn, and he bet 2/3rds pot, which you call. If the flush comes and your opponent can hand read you won't be extracting any reasonable amount from him on the river. Straight might be more hidden but he probably won't pay off enough to make your turn call better than breakeven.

And who bets and who calls also makes a ton of difference. Having and keeping the betting lead lets you control the hand. There is a silent agreement that the bettor has the best hand, and the caller is either drawing, calling a bluff or slowplaying. Until the caller shows some strength by raising, this "agreement" stands.

[ QUOTE ]
The overall problem I see with pushing the flop is that it seems like a very weak move. It seems you're afraid to play suited connectors out of position which is fine...but why are you playing them then?

[/ QUOTE ]
The reason we push the flop is because we are trying to mazimize our Expected Value (EV).

Same hand as before, but a little more detailed.

$0.5/1 NL - Hero has $100, villain covers.

Hero is in MP and holds 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Villain is OTB and holds A/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, Good TAG Villain calls, blinds fold.

Flop($9.5): T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero bets $7, villain raises to $20, Hero...

Right now you have 56.7% equity in the pot while villain has 43.3% equity. You can't realize that equity however without seeing both the turn and the river. Villains raise is offering you 2.8:1 pot odds and you have 15 outs to hit meaning you are about 1:2 so folding would be a mistake. But you aren't gaining that much EV by flat calling, because villain is TAG and won't pay you off if the board starts to look dangerous. You have the edge right now, but if you flat call and don't hit, you'll give your edge away, and villain can bet enough to price you out off your draw.

If you push, however you gain two things:
1. You put the money in as a favorite, thereby pushing your edge. This gains you EV.
2. You might induce your opponent to fold, which is a mistake for him. Remember that even though you are the favorite, your opponent does have equity in the current pot, and if he folds, he's giving up that equity(*). Getting him to fold maximizes our Expected Value by inducing the biggest mistake from our opponent and therefore, by the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, we gain.

(*) Villains EV for a fold is -$20. Villains EV for a call is 0.433 * 200 - 100 = -$13.4

[/ QUOTE ]7/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif on a T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif board is quite a bit different than 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif on a 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif board.

And I must be terrible at math because pushing here, I dont know how you're calculating yourself as a favorite with 15 outs. How bad is your opponent? Are they calling you with underpairs? I calculate as a dog against a set by 20%, and I dont see anything else calling unless its another OESFD. I've played enough low limits to know that people call with weird stuff. But thats all the more reason to bet till you hit and have them pot committed.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
7/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif on a T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif board is quite a bit different than 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif on a 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif board.

[/ QUOTE ]
No it isn't:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.031 secs 31,935 games/sec

Board: 5s 8s Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.737% 43.74% 00.00% 433 0.00 { AcTd }
Hand 1: 56.263% 56.26% 00.00% 557 0.00 { 7s6s }


---

990 games 0.031 secs 31,935 games/sec

Board: Ts 8h 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.232% 43.23% 00.00% 428 0.00 { AcTd }
Hand 1: 56.768% 56.77% 00.00% 562 0.00 { 7s6s }


---


[ QUOTE ]
And I must be terrible at math because pushing here, I dont know how you're calculating yourself as a favorite with 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
When you have 15 outs you are a favorite vs any one pair hand, including AA. If your math isn't up to speed, use Poker Stove to do all the hard work.

[ QUOTE ]
I calculate as a dog against a set by 20%

[/ QUOTE ]
We are a 40/60 vs a set:

Board: 5s Ts 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.697% 59.70% 00.00% 591 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 40.303% 40.30% 00.00% 399 0.00 { 7s6s }


[ QUOTE ]
How bad is your opponent? Are they calling you with underpairs? I calculate as a dog against a set by 20%, and I dont see anything else calling unless its another OESFD.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have been called in this exact spot many many times by second pair or worse. An overpair is folding about 0% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
I've played enough low limits to know that people call with weird stuff. But thats all the more reason to bet till you hit and have them pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to provide some argument for why you think that is a better play. Making a pot sized bet on the turn, with only 15 outs, and no fold equity, and a good chance your opponent won't pay you off on the river is a -EV play.

I provided you with EV calculations in my post that show pretty conclusively that if there is a reasonable chance your opponent will fold, then pushing is the best play. Especially when you're OOP.

[Freelancer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Advantages of b/3bAI;
1) With 100bb stacks you are maximizing FE, it looks very strong if you 3b a flop all in.
2) You have the most equity in the pot on the flop, the further you get in the hand (if you miss the turn) the lower you equity gets.
3) You always get to see 5 cards.

The downsides to b/3bAI;
1) If you have no FE your getting your money on a coinflip most of the time.
2) If the opponents doesn't raise it puts you in a tough situation on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

I personally think b3b is advised way too much here, I may have misconceptions about villains' ranges though. Generally I think this play is best vs players who able to pull moves and if you see your c-bets getting picked off too much by the same player. However, in these situations, it's sometimes profitable to push any FD or OESD, since your 3-bet FE is likely to be high. I think 2p2 overestimates FE of the 3rd bet at our stakes.

In many other situations, I think 3b is a less optimal move. Sure, it's +EV, but other moves could be more profitable.

Also, I don't think the fact that you get to see 5 cards is much of a bonus, it's a neutral point IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
Other possible lines;
c/r on the flop;
Very usefull against those TAG's who always c-bet the flop, you get there c-bet money and they'll fold most of there range. Downside is if your c/r gets called your usually in a tough spot on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is probably best for picking off c-bets, though I don't think you need a hand as strong as OESFD, again, you can use a regular FD or OESD, since you have pretty high FE. I don't think turn will be a tough spot, if you check, villain will be reluctant to bet with a lone pair, fearing that you're trapping him. You can be sure you have near 0 FE, so you just check and play pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
c/c on the flop;
Usefull against calling stations who will pay of if you hit, these people provide you the implied odds you need and often give you proper direct odds as well (horrid betsizing). The downside is that you don't have another way to win the pot (the opponent doesn't get a oppertunity to fold). c/c is very usefull if you don't think you have any FE with a raise, note that as soon as your FE starts to increase a more agressive approach is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only problem is, as your FE approaches 0 and opponent becomes more and more passive, OESFD should be bet simply because it has <50% equity on the flop. You don't have to worry about turn bets taking you off your draw. Also, you're building the pot to push the river if you happen to hit the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
b/c on the flop.
This can be occasionally used when you have no FE on your 3bet and villain is giving you good odds to hit on the turn, this is very rare though and b/3bAI is never incorrect on the flop...

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I think this move is underutilized and 2p2 pretty much always seems to replace this with b3b. As FE of 3rd bet approaches 0 and the likelihood of being up against a monster increases, it becomes more profitable to call, hope to hit the turn, then get your money in as a very good favorite. Sure, the variance here is that you're going to miss 32/47 times (assuming a 15-outer), but the other 15 times you're getting the opponent's stack in and he's drawing to 10 outs.

I think it'll be interesting to analyze when to use b3b vs b/c situations by constructing a spreadsheet, perhaps I'll do this when i get home.

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Interesting idea's;
I haven't played a while on these stakes, but at 200nl+ a lot of villains have a tendency to raise the flop light making b/3bAI a more preferable line. Also the higher you get the more FE you have on a b/3bAI because a lot of people recognize this as a monster draw/monster.

I am usually not really bothering with building a pot when I have a monster draw, its almost happening natural since you should be taking the more agressive approach 95% of the time. But yes its another consideration against loose/passive opponents...

On b/c the idea behind it is that a semibluff is always based on mostly FE (and as you mentioned pot building as well, but this is clearly in second place) and without it your occasionally better of calling instead of shoving. But since there is already a lot of money into the pot shoving is never wrong, however you can make HUGE mistakes if you take a more passive approach so for beginners its best to just be agressive...


Most of the time beginners are to passive with combo draws instead of agressive, and since being agressive with these huge hands is never incorrect the generic 2p2 advice really can't go wrong...
There are obviously situations where taking a slightly more passive route is more +EV, in general though being agressive with your combo draws (and regular draws as well) is a good start.

On c/r with oesd or FD instead of a monster draw;
If you get 3bAI you have a easy call with a monster draw but are forced to fold with a weaker draw. I still c/r A LOT with draws on the flop though because people are rarely 3betting me AI and the FE is huge (if I ever get into this situation that is)...

Personally I prefer using a c/r over b/3bAI against most villains, however I am very very rarely calling raises with suited connectors so I don't find myself in this spot all that often. Usually what happens with combo draws to me is;
I raise preflop get a caller or two (this is the generic start with 90% of the hands I play lol).
I c-bet the flop they either call or raise (if they raise I shove 99% of the time)
On the turn where usually HU and based on the villain I either check behind or double barrel, most of the time check behind though. I find with my ultra agressive style a lot of nubs are using a c/c c/r line against me and it would suck to dump my huge draw on the turn.
The river plays itself after the turn...

Ps. I play a lot of draws like this, works like a charm because they'll usually value bet whatever hand they called with on the river giving you mad monies this way.

Pss. My thoughts are a bit all over the place but meh combo draws usually play themselves for me...