AXs - should i fold pre-flop to a raise

[bober2]

I was on the button with a suited Ace. Should i fold to CO's raise?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($12.35)
CO ($9.93)
Hero ($17.78)
SB ($7.33)
BB ($10)
UTG ($12.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls $0.05, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $0.2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $0.32

[jschaud]

i think i am calling here just because you have an effective stack of 200bbs with CO and 250 with UTG. obviously if you do flop the ace, you have to be very careful due to your kicker problems.

[Polkaprinz]

There would be many factors to consider. I think there is no general advice. How is your table image? How tight did the table play? Any reads on UTG or CO?
In 0,05 I tend to play a bit tighter. Without reads - just fold..

[Triggerle]

The raise is for 4BB. You flop a flush draw about 10% of the time. This means that you have to subtract 40BB from your implied odds calculations when playing that flush draw. 200BB deep this seems possible. It get's much harder the closer you get to 100BB.

Please note the above is for flush value only. You will also flop top pair hands and the odd two-pair every now and then, which helps making these hands playable. Suited aces actually have quite some value as top pair but they are difficult to play as jschaud noted.

[Fiksdal]

easy fold

[Triggerle]

easy call

[bober2]

Quote:
The raise is for 4BB. You flop a flush draw about 10% of the time. This means that you have to subtract 40BB from your implied odds calculations when playing that flush draw. 200BB deep this seems possible. It get's much harder the closer you get to 100BB.

Could you explain these calculations you describe a bit more, or give a reference where i can read about them.

[Triggerle]

The basic principle is this: You can play a hand for a specific reason, for example a pocket pair for set value. This means you fold on the flop if this specific reason doesn't come to play. The times you do make your hand, you have to earn enough to make up for all the times you folded. Since you can calculate how often you should flop the hand you want, you can calculate how much you have to win to make up for the times you didn't. Now if you compare how much you have to win to your opponents stack it is your judgement that has to tell you if you can. (Read up about implied odds if you are unsure.)

Your case is a bit more complicated because you only flop a flush in under 1% of the cases. This means you can't possibly call profitable for made flush value (You'd have to make 400BB to 500BB net profit when you hit your flush). You do however flop a flush draw a little more often. To play a draw correctly you have to make similar calculations (read up on playing draws if you are not sure). If these calculations still hold when you subtract 40BB from them then this makes the whole play profitable.

Check this thread about suited connectors (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=ssplnlpoker&amp;Number=699670 9) for some maths.

And again, you can play suited aces for more then flush value and this fact also makes up for some of your pre-flop investment. It's just that beginners usually lose more with their top pair no kicker hands than they win with them.

[InfectorGadget]

[ QUOTE ]
The raise is for 4BB. You flop a flush draw about 10% of the time. This means that you have to subtract 40BB from your implied odds calculations when playing that flush draw. 200BB deep this seems possible. It get's much harder the closer you get to 100BB.

Please note the above is for flush value only. You will also flop top pair hands and the odd two-pair every now and then, which helps making these hands playable. Suited aces actually have quite some value as top pair but they are difficult to play as jschaud noted.

[/ QUOTE ]
Note that a FD is not a made hand and that we do not know how the flop action will be, so we could be facing a big bet, maybe a big bet and a reraise.

Also our TP or two-pair might be up against better hands sometimes, so our reverse implied odds is relevant with Ax types of hands.

This is marginal given the stacks, but I think I dump it either way.

[zaephyr]

U hit flush in about 6%. U flop flush draw in around 10%.

Basicly u need to earn on avg. 66BB - u pay 4BB to see a flop - 4/0.06=66.
This is avg expected value from flushes only, if u account other things like trips/2 pairs/ streights u can lower that number to sth like 50BB.
But then again u add some BB for the times u are drawing (and dont hit) and the times u are beat (FH vs flush).
So i think your EV should be around 75+BB to be a profitable

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
U hit flush in about 6%. U flop flush draw in around 10%.

Basicly u need to earn on avg. 66BB - u pay 4BB to see a flop - 4/0.06=66.
This is avg expected value from flushes only, if u account other things like trips/2 pairs/ streights u can lower that number to sth like 50BB.
But then again u add some BB for the times u are drawing (and dont hit) and the times u are beat (FH vs flush).
So i think your EV should be around 75+BB to be a profitable

[/ QUOTE ]
We will flop a flush draw or better 13.5% of the time (=3*11/50*10/49).

However, we can't calculate implied odds based on the fact that we will hit the flush 6% of the time because we are folding FD's a significant amount of the time if villain prices us out so we don't get to see all 5 cards. Flopped flush draws are only slightly EV+ because if villain is betting it is likely we will be priced out and if villain is not betting we are likely to not have implied odds. Worse, if villain is cbetting with air then we are at risk of paying without implied odds.

As pointed out, the decision with A3s is flush value + A value + straight value. That's not usually enough unless villain is passive postflop. Readless this is a fold for me.

[Triggerle]

Just to summarise:

You say that calling a 4BB late position raise 200BB deep in position with a suited ace is usually a mistake?

[catalyst]

200 BBs effective deep I def call here, this may persuade UTG to call as well

[Elverian]

I'd say this is a fold - you need the pot multiway to get implied odds for the flush draw, 2 pair etc
Too likely to be dominated by a better ace.

[Freelancer]

With 200 bb's this is a VERY marginal call, it depends how good you are with TP no kicker...

In case of doubt your better of just folding.

[Sam Spade]

I would tend to agree if the stacks were shorter. However as both villain and hero are deep I think this is a marginal but required call. It is crucial that hero dumps if we have a dry flush draw facing a 1/2 pot size flop bet or larger.

[Jouster777]

Summary should be:
1. EV calculation is not as simple as was stated
2. It is sometimes correct to fold and sometimes correct to play it
3. Readless and with 100BB stacks I usually fold it. With 200BB its fine and I certainly would not call it a mistake though personally I don't always play it and think its close.

[Freelancer]

[ QUOTE ]
I would tend to agree if the stacks were shorter. However as both villain and hero are deep I think this is a marginal but required call. It is crucial that hero dumps if we have a dry flush draw facing a 1/2 pot size flop bet or larger.

[/ QUOTE ]
If your going to play it like this your better of dumping it preflop...