OESFD, standard flop push?

[findingneema]

Reads: kind of tight/passive, would wake up on the flop though

I figure I'm 50/50 with anything but a set, and then it's 40/60. Not to mention, if he doesn't have a set, good chance he'll fold. Obviously, he didn't. Should I have overpushed instead of the smaller bet for better fold equity? Looking back, my bet seems too small.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
8 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BTN: $5.70
Hero (SB): $14.85
BB: $8.45
UTG: $3.80
UTG+1: $5.20
MP1: $19
MP2: $2.55
CO: $11.20

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($0.15, 8 players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.30</font>, BB calls $0.20

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.6, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.40</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $1.40</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all in to $8.25</font>, Hero calls $4.25

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif [K/images/graemlins/heart.gif] ($17.1, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">River:</font> 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif [8/images/graemlins/heart.gif] ($17.1, 2 players)
No action

[Gelford]

yep

[Supjack]

For me yes, it's a standard push, but i feel good gambling. for me it's a part of the game... and i think it has to be standard as a x% of your play for mixing with your made hand

But a good buddy of me winner over 200k hand clearly shouldn't push against a weak tight who raise him. And i think it's the best EV moove if you consider several factors :
_ no so much FE on a weak tight raising you in a raised pot.
_ he offers u good odds for ur big draw so he makes a mistake. Take advantage of that mistake.
_ and the combination of that 2 factors : u have no FE or few for a coin flip for nearly a double up but you are offers good odds for your draw. There is less variance ( or volatility dont know how really to define ) that a good ssnl player want.

And your reraise was fine. i personally would have raise to 4.5$ as a PZR but not sure the extra 0.5$ won so much FE.
Raising all in is just gambling for full stack in a 2$ pot ... and the only hands who'll call you will be set were u are an underdog.

[weknowhowtolive]

You guys effectively push $9.65 into a $.60 pot on a draw? What do you think is calling you besides a set?

And against a set if its 5s or 8s you're about 42/58. Jacks you could be worse if he's got Js.

Again, how is this more +EV than playing the hand out in position?

[b2l_cricket]

I usually just overbet push the flop. I don't know how much it matters. Maybe he folds a better flush draw that we would have called a bet with, i dont know.

[Supjack]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys effectively push $9.65 into a $.60 pot on a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

As i said when i feel humor gambling yes ... but i explain that is not the good play in term of EV. Just sometimes for vary with your made hands let's says 15% of the time

[weknowhowtolive]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You guys effectively push $9.65 into a $.60 pot on a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

As i said when i feel humor gambling yes ... but i explain that is not the good play in term of EV. Just sometimes for vary with your made hands let's says 15% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]Sure...but varying hands doesnt mean making an EV push with the best possible draws in the game. He's calling you down, if you hit you can make money. If you push here you're going to only get called by a worse hand maybe 10% of the time if you're lucky. That doesnt make up for the 20% underdog you are. And if you dont think he has a set you're basically taking a huge loss in money if you actually do hit it on the turn or river.

Seems like a lot of people want to hugely overpush flops because playing after the flop scares them. Pushing doesnt change your odds or EV here.

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys effectively push $9.65 into a $.60 pot on a draw? What do you think is calling you besides a set?

And against a set if its 5s or 8s you're about 42/58. Jacks you could be worse if he's got Js.

Again, how is this more +EV than playing the hand out in position?

[/ QUOTE ]

it is a question of ranges and not specific hands. If we put him on a range consisting of solely 55+ and AJ, then it is a flip

Thing is, Villian is most likely on a much wider range than that, when he raises flop, so it becomes better than a flip and the flop reraise might even contain some FE. Once hero is has reraised flop and faces the push, then the call is easy.

Thing is with these draws, that you have your high potequity on the flop with two cards to come. If you just call on flop and miss, then you will be priced out. Also since Hero is OOP, if his draw hits, especially the flush. it might be transparant and it can be hard to extract.

If hero was in position, then there are more options, but here ... well.


And as usual a word from pokerstove, hero against the range 55+ and AJ

Board: 5s 8s Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.578% 51.44% 00.14% 29029 76.50 { 7s6s }
Hand 1: 48.422% 48.29% 00.14% 27248 76.50 { 55+, AJs, AJo }

[weknowhowtolive]

Ok fair enough. But are you including 66, 77, 99 and TT in that range?

[AKQJ10]

I'm very confused by all the posts on this thread, so let's go back to basics.

You generally make bets for two reasons in poker: To get called by inferior hands, or to induce superior hands to fold. (Yes, you can go into detail about protection, isolation, etc. but those fall under one of those two.)

With a big draw you can play it for value or play it for FE. In the case of a SF draw, you have so much equity that you're hoping to get called by top pair or an overpair which is an underdog with two cards to come. But if you're playing for FE, you just want to take down the pot.

I think I like trying to get value from it on the flop, then pushing the turn regardless to get FE. If your draw doesn't come in, you still have 15 outs on the river so it's a very live semibluff.

But I'm not understanding -- the replies are complaining that only a set calls you, which makes sense if you want to get one pair to call for value. If you want FE, then it's good that only a set calls you. I don't think you want FE here -- after all, you're a favorite -- but I'm just trying to clarify whether that's the argument being made.

[findingneema]

At the point of his reraise, I thought it far more likely that he had a Jack instead of a set. I figured he'd call preflop with position with JT, QJ, KJ, maybe AJ (might pop back with that one). If he has JJ, maybe he traps, maybe he pops me pre-flop, same with 88 and 55. After I 3 bet him, he took almost the whole time to decide.

Villain turned over: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif

[Elverian]

A 15 outer is only slightly ahead, and if he does have a set then some outs are counterfeited, plus he may have a redraw on the river with a higher spade or to the fully.

As played, why not flat call villains flop reraise, and see what the turn brings. If you miss on the turn then you become a real underdog to only TP and can check/call if he gives correct drawing odds.

A big advantage of raising with these draws is when in position, and you often buy a free card, seeing 2 cards for the price of one. Here that isn't the case and villain's first raise says he is strong.

I would try to avoid getting all in here - what if villain is holding A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif - then you're in real trouble.

[weknowhowtolive]

I could be wrong, maybe people are so dumb here they call an all in with air or TP. But honestly it seems like a waste of an amazing draw.

I dont get the argument of pushing her with$.60 in the pot OOP when you pretty much know only strong hands are calling, but saying someone betting hte pot here is pricing you out when you think you're about %48.

[weknowhowtolive]

If this person is holding say, QQ, how do you play it from their hand when someone bets all in into a $.60 pot? Because i laugh and fold.

[Gelford]

I was a bit confused it seems, but here goes again.


You are a favorite against his range, but only on the flop, so there is where you want to get the money in (especially OOP)

You are betting for value as you are a favorite against his range.

His range is wider than just sets and such ... of course you will fold out many of those hands if you bet, but not betting for value and letting a hand that is a dog stay and see turn is a mistake


I mentioned FE ... but you are right, we are not playing for FE, this is strictly value, I mentionined FE to illustrate that villians range is wider than just hands that make sets etc., but that has nothing to do with it.

You must offcourse bet, because you hand is very dependent on see two cards ... and yes, you will fold out some weaker hands, you will get called by sets some of the time .... and hopefully you will also get called by dumb things like AK.

It is a blind battle, villians could easily be stealing on flop and well, you shove and expect to be ahead of his range.

[weknowhowtolive]

Ok so if you are playing to get him to fold here, does he only fold to a push?

If you are playing this to the river after the flop, then it seems a push just means you're afraid to play it OOP which is fine. But you arent getting max value by pushing this flop with this hand.

[Gelford]

As usual I been misreading some of the post here.

I just though if OP asked is getting it all in on flop was ok and it is.



Now the question is if you want to push the flop ?



Well I don't mind it, or you could go for a checkraise ... or you could balance you game and push it ... next time you have a strong hand, push that as well

I have no idea whether that is good, but it is the next thing on my to do list, pushing flops with a diverse range of hands, most of them good.


But my point was really just that you should try to get the as much money in on flop as possible. Once villian reraises you, then a push seems only fair. Whether to push the flop ... well, I have a feeling that you could make that work.

Edit: --- but yeah, if villian doesn't raise flop, just bet it normally i guess. It is 10 am here, and Ive been up all night.

[weknowhowtolive]

Nah I think that was the original quesiton, I just think the discussion progressed.

I'm actually curious to see how people would play based on the villains range that is being given, from the villains position.

[Nick C]

I don't know the site or the limit, but here's what I think will frequently happen if you just call the flop raise:

Villain bets $2 into a $3.40 pot on the turn and you call, or he checks behind.

So now he's got $4.75 left for the river (when he bet $2 on the turn), and sometimes you'll get none of that when you catch, and sometimes you'll get the whole wad, but let's say you'll win, what, $3 on average?

So, on those occasions when you miss on the turn, you invested an additional $3 for the chance to win $7.40, on average.

It seems like a pretty good deal to me.

Playing more aggressively has its merits too, but it's a trade-off. You gain folding equity (and eliminate Villain's folding equity) and lose implied odds.

The particulars can change, of course, depending on how aggressive/passive Villain is and how loose/tight he is about paying off, but versus passive underbetting players who have shown strength, playing your draw as a draw certainly does have some arguments in its favor.

Edit: As for the possibility that he'll drive us out on the turn, sure it'll happen occasionally, but he's going to have to overbet the pot to do it (even a pot-sized bet gives us a reasonable 2:1 with our massive draw), and, c'mon, how often is he going to do that?

[findingneema]

Trying to figure out the options here:

If Villain has a set:
If I call his reraise, the pot is $3.40. I hit 1/3 of the time on the turn. The question is how much of his stack will I get. If a spade hits, he might bet small ($2) and fold to a raise. If I make the straight, he's probably less likely to notice. But likely I'll stack him either way.

If the turn blanks, and he bets pot or less, I'm getting odds to draw. Problem is, a pot size bet is half his stack; he might just push, which I can't call.

If I can call, I'll probably stack him if the river hits, otherwise, I can fold.

So I guess it seems if the Villain has a set, calling the flop reraise (and not pushing) is better IF he wouldn't push a missed turn and I stack him when I hit.

1/3($10.15) + 2/9($10.15) - 4/9($3.40) = $4.13
vs
.42($10.15) - .58($6.75) = $0.34

If he doesn't have a set...my brain hurts.

But I think the short answer is I have a far less chance of stacking him and I'll have to pay big for the turn and may not get paid off. Which is better? Still not sure, lots of assumptions involved.

[Nick C]

If Villain has a set, you do not want to be pushing this flop. You have no folding equity versus a set unless Villain is really bad (and really bad in an ususual way), and you're just too big of an underdog.

But, of course, he'll usually have something else . . .

[findingneema]

Nick C,

I think we came to the same conclusions (independently). The critical thing is whether he's got TP or a set (or, in the Villain's actual case, 99). I don't know if I get enough of his stack when I hit compared to the flop push. I'm leaning towards just calling on the flop though.

Being OOP is the hard part about this and makes it more difficult to get the cash when I hit. So that's why this hand was so confusing.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
Now the question is if you want to push the flop ?

Well I don't mind it, or you could go for a checkraise ... or you could balance you game and push it ... next time you have a strong hand, push that as well

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but who actually balances their game like that? That would be great if you could do that and get called next time you flop a set, but unless you know you're against the same observant opponents, you're not going to play your set that way. (And even so, your observant opponent can play perfectly with a pretty simple algorithm. "When he open-pushes the flop, with less than a set, FOLD! I'm either slightly behind an OESFD or way behind a set.")

BTW, my comments above were wrong-headed. For some reason I was getting the numbers mixed up with an OESFD+overcards versus top pair, i.e. 2:1 favorite. You're nowhere near that big a favorite, so taking down all the dead money in the pot is fine.

As played, once Villain turns over 99, you know that she's not only impossible to get off an overpair (which is good to know when you flop a set); she's impossible to get off a pocket pair higher than middle pair! That's wonderful news.

Obviously raise every overpair or better for value against this opponent.