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View Full Version : 100NL flush draw

DrRock
02-21-2007, 05:34 PM
Posting this here, because I think its an elementary situation.
villain is competent TAG

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($122.50)
SB ($202.65)
BB ($103)
UTG ($103)
Hero ($96.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($9) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $31</font>

This seems bad to me, but I cant understand it logically
svidrigailov
02-21-2007, 05:45 PM
He has to fold a significant portion of his range, so I guess it's bad insofar as villain does not lead the flop without a hand that can withstand a raise. If he's competent he may be liable to avoid putting himself in tough spots OOP, so a PSB is not a marginal hand.
fsista
02-21-2007, 06:13 PM
This is fine if he is a tag that can fold a semi-weak ace like AJ etc. It's also fine if he can have something worse than an ace here. This is bad if villian mostly has AXs or a big A or a SET when he does this.
DrRock
02-21-2007, 06:18 PM
It was weird. The only time I had seen him do this was when he was betting draws. With AK he checkraised. I was thinking, "do I want to raise him off a draw? Wait...I have the draw. Can he mix up his play maybe?" My read just didnt help my course of action.
Jouster777
02-21-2007, 06:20 PM
I don't have the energy to do the math but this looks like an EV+ play if used sparingly.

The raise should fold AJ and worse incl. draws =&gt; ~30% FE (??) and hero gets a free turn card 90% of the time. If the free turn card were 100% of the time then the FD would be priced in. I think the FE should make up for the times villain needs to fold the flop or turn.