25NL flopped huge draw

[prodonkey]

Full Tilt Poker
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
UTG: $51.65
CO: $25.65
BTN: $35.25
SB: $23.35
Hero (BB): $36.25

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.35, 5 players)
UTG calls $0.25, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($0.75, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.70</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $1.40</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.95</font>, UTG calls $3.55

<font color="black">Turn:</font> T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif [K/images/graemlins/heart.gif] ($10.65, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10.65</font>


First off.. what do you think of the 3 bet size, I couldn't really find a nice size bet, since I'd have to make a huge overbet to be able to get it in with a pot size bet on the turn. Considering he called.. and I hit, is my turn bet too big??

[JBizzle104]

I think your play is fine. You played your hand very strong so he may rule out your flush and just hope he has a set of two pair. I think it's a fine play and I like the aggression w/ the draw. One thing I am scared of though, is his weak reraise/call from behind represents a possible nut flush draw here. But...that's all feel.

JB

JB

[xorthio]

i would rr flop little bigger here, to 7 or something like that with these stack sizes.

[Nick C]

It seems all right to me.

I also think that just calling the flop min-raise is an option. (And that is probably what I would have done.) You're only a slight favorite over, say, AT, and what's your plan on a turn brick if your flop 3-bet gets called? You're not actually obligated to bet again, I suppose, and maybe Villain will be scared enough by this time to check behind or bet small.

I don't know. You've got a great draw, but playing draws out of position can be very hard, and I don't think there's any magic line that solves all of your problems here. I mean, if you call, like I would have, then you're in an awkward spot on the turn when your flush hits, since a checkraise may whiff and a bet announces the hand you actually have. (If you hit the straight, though, I think a checkraise is easier to go for.)

[prodonkey]

JB: I really didn't put him on any kind of draw.. he had played really strange, he loved to cold call, then he'd always try to take pots away. He was something like 65/10/5.

Nick: I agree with you.. I was betting the turn if I missed.. I wasn't letting him take it down with 9To or whatever he had. I just thought maybe I bet a little too much since I actually did hit the flush. Check raising the straight would have been sick, I hadn't thought of that!

[matrix]

re-raise flop awwwwwwwl eeeeeeeeen.

you effectively have an OESFD (you got 15 outs) - you are in all likely hood so far ahead it's not funny - and if he likes his hand enough to raise your flop bet he's calling a push often (even with these stacks)

If your draw is to a non nut hand you want to usually play it much faster than a nut draw (as you get more fold equity if you push the flop rather than just raise) - in fact if you raise and he calls and then you miss the turn OOP you're in a sticky spot.

Just jam the flop here and save yourself a headache later.

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
re-raise flop awwwwwwwl eeeeeeeeen.

you effectively have an OESFD (you got 15 outs) - you are in all likely hood so far ahead it's not funny - and if he likes his hand enough to raise your flop bet he's calling a push often (even with these stacks)

If your draw is to a non nut hand you want to usually play it much faster than a nut draw (as you get more fold equity if you push the flop rather than just raise) - in fact if you raise and he calls and then you miss the turn OOP you're in a sticky spot.

Just jam the flop here and save yourself a headache later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with the extra ~40-50 BBs behind?

With 100BB stacks I b3b this all day every day but definitely have pause for thought with the extra money behind, especially considering it wasn't raised pre and he's only min raised us here.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
re-raise flop awwwwwwwl eeeeeeeeen.

you effectively have an OESFD (you got 15 outs) - you are in all likely hood so far ahead it's not funny - and if he likes his hand enough to raise your flop bet he's calling a push often (even with these stacks)

If your draw is to a non nut hand you want to usually play it much faster than a nut draw (as you get more fold equity if you push the flop rather than just raise) - in fact if you raise and he calls and then you miss the turn OOP you're in a sticky spot.

Just jam the flop here and save yourself a headache later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with the extra ~40-50 BBs behind?

With 100BB stacks I b3b this all day every day but definitely have pause for thought with the extra money behind, especially considering it wasn't raised pre and he's only min raised us here.

[/ QUOTE ]

especially seeing as we have 140ish BB and he covers us - I'd be salivating as I push my stack in.

They're only chips - it's not money - and we're ahead vs his range here.

Get your chips in when you are ahead and let the cards fall how they may.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
you effectively have an OESFD (you got 15 outs) - you are in all likely hood so far ahead it's not funny -

[/ QUOTE ]

So we're putting Villain on second pair or bottom pair?

15 outs twice does not put us way ahead. It makes us a slight favorite. And versus some hands (sets, AhTc), we're not even that.

Edit: I guess if you want the $3.50 already in the pot that badly, then go ahead and push, but I'm going to say we're probably a dog if we're called.

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
re-raise flop awwwwwwwl eeeeeeeeen.

you effectively have an OESFD (you got 15 outs) - you are in all likely hood so far ahead it's not funny - and if he likes his hand enough to raise your flop bet he's calling a push often (even with these stacks)

If your draw is to a non nut hand you want to usually play it much faster than a nut draw (as you get more fold equity if you push the flop rather than just raise) - in fact if you raise and he calls and then you miss the turn OOP you're in a sticky spot.

Just jam the flop here and save yourself a headache later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with the extra ~40-50 BBs behind?

With 100BB stacks I b3b this all day every day but definitely have pause for thought with the extra money behind, especially considering it wasn't raised pre and he's only min raised us here.

[/ QUOTE ]

especially seeing as we have 140ish BB and he covers us - I'd be salivating as I push my stack in.

They're only chips - it's not money - and we're ahead vs his range here.

Get your chips in when you are ahead and let the cards fall how they may.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK I'm clearly missing something here. If you've got a second will you kindly point out the flaw in my thinking please /images/graemlins/smile.gif

We are clearly ahead of his range.
The deeper we get, the narrower his calling range and the more important that becomes rather than his current range.
Stupid example, if we have 10000BB and his calling range drops only to topset a push here becomes -EV right?
Do we expect him to call off his stack with a donk hand often enough to make this push +EV?

That is very garbled and not my best explanation ever. I hope it's enough for you to pick out the flaw.

Thanks.

[Jouster777]

I like the flop as played. I think we need to 3-bet enough to fold out the higher flush draws (since often that minraise means exactly that) and with that we get most of the FE of a push. Now if we whiff the turn we can block or check and villain is less likely to go nuts and if he does it is likely we were crushed on the turn so we got off cheap. Even if we don't hit our flush until the river our flop play keeps the implied odds up and of course the dgssd is always well disguised.

This way we get 90% of the benefits of a push at 10-30% of the cost.

[fsista]

All fine so far, don't fold. Maybe make it 9 on turn.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you effectively have an OESFD (you got 15 outs) - you are in all likely hood so far ahead it's not funny -

[/ QUOTE ]

So we're putting Villain on second pair or bottom pair?

15 outs twice does not put us way ahead. It makes us a slight favorite. And versus some hands (sets, AhTc), we're not even that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 0: 51.515% 51.52% 00.00% 510 0.00 { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 48.485% 48.48% 00.00% 480 0.00 { AhTc }

We're a 60/40 dog vs a set - I don't think he calls often with just a flush draw - tho if he calls with a AhTc we are ahead.

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: I guess if you want the $3.50 already in the pot that badly, then go ahead and push, but I'm going to say we're probably a dog if we're called.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats not why I'm pushing - tho a $3.50 win here is very nice thanks - look in PT how much do you make on average per hand? ~1.5BB?? $3.5 is 14BB - I'll take that everytime.

I'm pushing here because if he calls we are ahead (if only slightly) and lots of our outs kill the action and leave us not winning much more. If he hasn't got a flush draw and it hits we aren't getting more $ very often and the times the flush hits and we get lots of chips in we are often beaten anyway by a better flush.

If the straight hits we'll probably stack him if he doesn't improve so we'd love to see a black 9 most of all.

The only hand we don't wanna see him flip is AThh and even then we still win 1/4 times.

I think he calls a flop push with black Aces which is fabulous - but once a /images/graemlins/heart.gif hits the turn he's not calling off his stack with those same Aces as often I think.

[weknowhowtolive]

[ QUOTE ]
re-raise flop awwwwwwwl eeeeeeeeen.

you effectively have an OESFD (you got 15 outs) - you are in all likely hood so far ahead it's not funny - and if he likes his hand enough to raise your flop bet he's calling a push often (even with these stacks)

If your draw is to a non nut hand you want to usually play it much faster than a nut draw (as you get more fold equity if you push the flop rather than just raise) - in fact if you raise and he calls and then you miss the turn OOP you're in a sticky spot.

Just jam the flop here and save yourself a headache later.

[/ QUOTE ]How is pushing the flop getting the most value from this hand?

[ama0330]

I think a push is too much when we are this deep, I like a 3bet to $6 then felt the turn and river when you hit. I think that if we are pushed on on the flop we have to call because we are so huge against even a set.

I feel like pushing the flop lets villain play his hand perfectly, thats why I dont like it. He folds a good part of his range if we just overpush here, remember that its only a minraise on the flop which could be basically anything and certainly be a hand he is going to fold if we overshove for like 180bb or whatever.

RE bet sizes I think you can bet anywhere from 8 to 10 because these amounts leave the stacks nice for a river push which will be just less than a psb. $10 is probably better because Villain will be more inclined to call on the river getting better odds (well we would assume that from a decent player, maybe it doesnt matter).

[weknowhowtolive]

Pushing the flop seems to me you're afraid to play later streets and would rather push n pray. This negates any form of extraction and leaves your opponent in a position where he drops most of his range. Now you're pretty much forcing a WAWB situation rather than continuing with the hand, reevaluating, and practicing maximum extraction.

What hands call to a push that you beat besides a set and a straight/draw?

[matrix]

I stand by my push the flop = maximum (or close to it) extraction theory.

People call way too much at uNL tables - I try to take advantage of this. UTG has us covered, pushing this flop looks donkish he'll call with loads of hands he shouldn't call with some of them we have crushed on this flop.

weknow:

how would you get maximum value from this hand?

are you willing to get all in if the flush hits?
and if you are don't you think that he's quite likely to have our small flush beaten if he'll get all his chips in after it lands???

I think on this flop JJ+ calls a push, a set calls, TPGK+ calls, 2pair calls, maybe even a few worse hands than that if he thinks we are bluffing. And if he hasn't got one of those hands we aren't making much more anyway.

[weknowhowtolive]

[ QUOTE ]
I stand by my push the flop = maximum (or close to it) extraction theory.

People call way too much at uNL tables - I try to take advantage of this. UTG has us covered, pushing this flop looks donkish he'll call with loads of hands he shouldn't call with some of them we have crushed on this flop.

weknow:

how would you get maximum value from this hand?

are you willing to get all in if the flush hits?
and if you are don't you think that he's quite likely to have our small flush beaten if he'll get all his chips in after it lands???

I think on this flop JJ+ calls a push, a set calls, TPGK+ calls, 2pair calls, maybe even a few worse hands than that if he thinks we are bluffing. And if he hasn't got one of those hands we aren't making much more anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]Errr if im not willing to get it all in after the flush hits why am i playing suited connected with a OESFD?

Also max extraction doesnt always mean ALL of their chips. You may not be able to get all their chips on this hand.

[allaboutmyfetti]

[ QUOTE ]
I stand by my push the flop = maximum (or close to it) extraction theory.

People call way too much at uNL tables - I try to take advantage of this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't we pushing the flop hoping (from an EV perspective) that villian will fold a made hand? I always thought the super-excellentness of 3bai on a hand like this is that (1) we get to see 2 cards and (2) we have FE (which isn't even necessary for a push to be +EV, but it makes a push that much more awesomer).

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 0: 51.515% 51.52% 00.00% 510 0.00 { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 48.485% 48.48% 00.00% 480 0.00 { AhTc }

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, okay, I guess we are a very slight favorite versus AhTc. I didn't actually Stove it before. Possibly our chances of making a straight flush (which also cuts into the ace-high flush redraw slightly) tilts things in our favor.

I agree with your argument that we may have trouble extracting later on a flush. I think this is less true for a straight (especially on a 9).

In any event, if I did push the flop here, I'd be cheering for a fold. And I'd imagine you will get one of those a lot. Meanwhile, the hands he won't fold to a push, either because it's a monster or because Villain is overvaluing his hand, might not be so hard to extract from later after all.

[weknowhowtolive]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 0: 51.515% 51.52% 00.00% 510 0.00 { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 48.485% 48.48% 00.00% 480 0.00 { AhTc }

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, okay, I guess we are a very slight favorite versus AhTc. I didn't actually Stove it before. Possibly our chances of making a straight flush (which also cuts into the ace-high flush redraw slightly) tilts things in our favor.

I agree with your argument that we may have trouble extracting later on a flush. I think this is less true for a straight (especially on a 9).

In any event, if I did push the flop here, I'd be cheering for a fold. And I'd imagine you will get one of those a lot. Meanwhile, the hands he won't fold to a push, either because it's a monster or because Villain is overvaluing his hand, might not be so hard to extract from later after all.

[/ QUOTE ]EXACTLY! Thanks for wording it better than I could.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]


I agree with your argument that we may have trouble extracting later on a flush. I think this is less true for a straight (especially on a 9).

[/ QUOTE ]

there are more flush outs out there than there are straight outs - a flush is hitting more often than the straight does.

[ QUOTE ]

In any event, if I did push the flop here, I'd be cheering for a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

indeedy - after all right now we have 8 high.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meanwhile, the hands he won't fold to a push, either because it's a monster or because Villain is overvaluing his hand, might not be so hard to extract from later after all.

[/ QUOTE ]EXACTLY! Thanks for wording it better than I could.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about this as well then...

imagine you get called and miss - or you hit and get outdrawn or whatever and lose your stack.

What do you think will happen the next time you push the flop in a tiny pot? - will the other players be more or less likely to call you down (believe me they WILL notice)

I still think there is alot going for a flop push here - tbh now I've looked through some stove numbers we are less of a favourite than I thought we were when I made my OP, it's actually very close I think - and I know now that the worst hand villain could possibly hold against us is T5hh not AThh (and T5 is quite possible seeing as we all limped in) - but I still think a push is best here (just) - perhaps I am wrong, i'll hold my hands up if I am - but you still need to convince me.

weknow:

you still didn't answer my question.

how would you go about trying to extract the most chips possible from this hand?

Howabout we look at your line and work out it's EV - and then at a push and work out the EV of that and compare the two - who knows we might both end up learning something new /images/graemlins/smile.gif