50NL- KK but the second Q hits

[Imrahil]

Villain is 23/11/2.4 over 350 hands:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($51.50)
CO ($30)
Button ($33)
Hero ($72.70)
BB ($47.40)
UTG ($17.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $5.

Flop: ($15.50) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, Button calls $10.

Turn: ($35.50) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $8.5</font>, Hero?

[Nick C]

I realize Button sort of appears to be trying to get the rest of his stack in in even $8 increments, but it seems to me that you're kind of committed at this point. You are getting over 3:1 to show this down.

[BoozeHound]

I think with his awkward stack size, if I'm willing to fold at all I bet turn and fold to a raise or go all the way. I'm trying to decide if villain ever checks this behind with anything but a flush draw (meaning 10's, JJ, TJs, etc). Tough to not be results oriented about that after seeing that he bet.

If we put him on a range after the flop call, he seems to have 10's - JJ (maybe 99,88?); J10s, JQ, JK, KQ, AQ (maybe). Does any of this check behind?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
if I'm willing to fold at all I bet turn and fold to a raise or go all the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

We can't bet-fold here, can we? (Well, I know we can, but it seems like a bad play.)

Any bet that leaves Villain anything to raise with is going to be very small and could sort of encourage Villain to raise with a worse hand (and also we'd be getting great odds on the raise).

[Dave I]

I'm willing to take button to the mat here. C/R all-in. AK/AJ/AT/JJ&lt;/ or some draw - all as likely as a Q or TT. He may even fold AA.

[Kramer]

This is a reraised pot so I don't put him on a flush draw.
From his stats he doesn't look like a fish and his AF is 2.4 but his line looks very weak.

Either he had a strong hand(AA)and the Q scared him or he has a monster one(AQ) and he made a small bet just to keep you in the pot.

JJ would sometimes fold FLOP or call and check behind on the TURN

I'll C/C TURN and C/F RIVER .
What would you do if he PUSHES all in on the FLOP when you bet?

Edit:took out AK line .Was a mistake to write that but I said I don't put him on a flush draw and I didn't say he floats his stack.
The chances of him floating with AK are small but still there.
I've seen people calling with something like AhKx

[BoozeHound]

Nick,
every play seems pretty bad in this spot. IF we are saying that we'll fold at any point from here on out, this seems to be the only way to do it was really my point.

Otherwise, I'd say it becomes completely read dependent. Will he bet air or a 10, JJ on the river? If so, c/c, c/c. If not MAYBE we can fold to a bet on the river? We can't fold a better hand here, so raising is only for value against draws. I suppose we get called by a flush draw and KJ, but fold out a lot of other hands (JJ, J10, etc).

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a reraised pot so I don't put him on a flush draw.
From his stats he doesn't look like a fish and his AF is 2.4 but his line looks very weak.

Either he had a strong hand(AA)and the Q scared him or he has a monster one(AQ) and he made a small bet just to keep you in the pot.
He won't bet TURN with AK
JJ would sometimes fold FLOP or call and check behind on the TURN

I'll C/C TURN and C/F RIVER .
What would you do if he PUSHES all in on the FLOP when you bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can villain possibly call the flop bet with AK? He can't have AhKh. Is he floating you for hte rest of his stack?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Nick,
every play seems pretty bad in this spot. IF we are saying that we'll fold at any point from here on out, this seems to be the only way to do it was really my point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, okay.

A big part of the way I'm thinking about this hand is that 1/4 of Button's stack went in preflop. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he decided at that point that he was pot committed if he caught a piece of the flop or began with a pretty good PP.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
How can villain possibly call the flop bet with AK? He can't have AhKh. Is he floating you for hte rest of his stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be surprised if Villain folded AK on the flop. I haven't played NL50 yet, but I'd imagine he's not going to want to let go of his overcards/gutshot.

That said, I wouldn't really expect him to bet the AK on the turn.

[Dave I]

[ QUOTE ]

How can villain possibly call the flop bet with AK? He can't have AhKh. Is he floating you for hte rest of his stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because people hate folding AK and he has a gutshot. People also hate folding PP. His stats say he's solid. But, he only has a 60bb stack. A PP JJ and &lt; and AK are not out of the question IMO.

Obv. this changes with a better read.

[Dave I]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, I wouldn't really expect him to bet the AK on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it's a great card for him to bet at with anything. The odd of hero having a Q in a re-raised pot are probably pretty low unless it's QQ specifically or he 3-bets OOP light.

[Dave I]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be surprised at all if he decided at that point that he was pot committed if he caught a piece of the flop or began with a pretty good PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. The only spot to get rid of this hand is the turn bet and I'm not willing to do it.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That said, I wouldn't really expect him to bet the AK on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it's a great card for him to bet at with anything. The odd of hero having a Q in a re-raised pot are probably pretty low unless it's QQ specifically or he 3-bets OOP light.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, okay, but what 3-betting hand is Hero folding for a mere $8.5 bet?

It was a steal situation preflop, I realize, so I guess maybe there are a few.

[barryc83]

Dave I's right IMO, its tough bc his stats say hes solid but he bought in short. I dunno, I'm leaning towards folding though, such a weird bet size, looks like he wants you to call. Did he buy in short or just lose a decent size pot the last hand or something? I used to go AI here like everytime but I would see a better hand so much of the time that I've started giving them more credit.

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be surprised at all if he decided at that point that he was pot committed if he caught a piece of the flop or began with a pretty good PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. The only spot to get rid of this hand is the turn bet and I'm not willing to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only question then is, c/c, c/c (to get value from low PP/air) or crai to charge the draws. I suppose I shove.

[JNuey]

I think a read might help here. Does he make these block bets on the turn at all? If yes call, if no fold.

[Dave I]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That said, I wouldn't really expect him to bet the AK on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it's a great card for him to bet at with anything. The odd of hero having a Q in a re-raised pot are probably pretty low unless it's QQ specifically or he 3-bets OOP light.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, okay, but what 3-betting hand is Hero folding for a mere $8.5 bet?

It was a steal situation preflop, I realize, so I guess maybe there are a few.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, i'm not. Many will as it's up for debate in this thread.

But, with a deeper stack and a better bet, it's a great move in this spot.

[Imrahil]

Well I folded and villain said he had 99 which put me on tilt. He said he put me on AK or a small PP. What a [censored] donk.