A2s at 25NL: What am I representing with this play?

[Nick C]

I'm still relatively new to NL, and I haven't made a whole lot of use of the "overpush with a monster draw" play. It seems to me like versus my opponents at NL25 it's often just not necessary, since they'll frequently let me draw cheaply and there's a good chance I'll get paid if I catch anyway.

However, in this hand, it seemed to me like I had found a good spot for it. But afterwards I did wonder a little what my play even represented? I doubt Villain knows much about me specifically, so I guess it's more a question of what he's used to seeing, but in fact I would probably not play anything this way versus his relatively short but not super-short stack with anything but a huge draw. (With strong made hands, although I might raise the flop, unless he 3-bet all-in, I'd aim to get his stack in on the turn.)

Anyway, Villain is 29/0/3 after a whole 28 hands.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($9.75)
BB ($6.15)
UTG ($25.35)
MP1 ($7.60)
Hero ($55.90)
CO ($28.40)
Button ($14.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($2.25) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9.75 . . .</font>

My questions are:

(1) Is this a good spot for this play?

(2) What am I representing?

(3) What other hands, if any, should I do this with?

Edit: On reflection, I wish Villain's stack were a little larger for the sake of this post (since I can imagine doing this with an overpair, actually, given that a pot-sized raise would be more than half of Villain's remaining stack), but I am still wondering about the things I asked.

[TheRenaissance]

Shove all-in when you do this.
Much cooler.

1) An ok spot yes, but villain is going to call you with K5.
That's ok though:
board: 5h3c7h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
ah2h 53.89% 529 9
kc5s 46.11% 452 9

2) Who cares what you represent? Shorties never fold with any piece of the board anyways.

3) Do this with big combo draws, i.e. 12+ clean outs. Whether outs are clean or not is situation specific. Sometimes, against the right opponent in the right spot, you could do it with a naked flushdraw. But you would have to be certain you have plenty of fold equity to do it. So stick to the big draws.

[dirtysanchez]

this is cool, just play your big made hands the same way vs thinking villains

[Jouster777]

You have position so I would just put in a standard raise to villain's weak lead. If he 3-bets you can push. If he calls you will likely get a turn check and get to see all 5 cards very cheaply while the flop bet has disguised your hand somewhat. If he folds...great.

[corsakh]

1) No, since almost every pocket pair, many suited connectors and A7 call you.
2) A bluff. 22, 44, 66 at best.
3) Wrong question. What villain should you do this to? The one you have extensive personal history and a good read on.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
1) No, since almost every pocket pair, many suited connectors and A7 call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what?
Villains range is pretty wide here.
If he folds, great, if he doesnt, that's fine as well.

Hold'em Simulation
103,950 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 5h3c7h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
ah2h 51.24% 52,703 1,119
xx 48.76% 50,128 1,119

xx=a5,a3,a7,57,68,khqh,jhth,78,k5,33,55,77,88,99,t t

[TheRenaissance]

Just to make it very clear:
board: 5h3c7h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
ah2h 53.08% 3,126 54
KK 46.92% 2,760 54

[Tiki]

[ QUOTE ]
1) No, since almost every pocket pair, many suited connectors and A7 call you.
2) A bluff. 22, 44, 66 at best.
3) Wrong question. What villain should you do this to? The one you have extensive personal history and a good read on.

[/ QUOTE ]

1.and you may fold out a smaller FD

[corsakh]

Its a personal choise I guess. If you get rakeback go for it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[dirtysanchez]

guys, gutshot+FD= teh nuts. not to even get into how pretty combo draws are and the fact that we almost always have an overcard. also, since when do villains fold FDs here?

[barryc83]

Yeah this is good bc hes short, with regualr stacks dont do this obv. I agree with sanchez, hes not folding a FD here like ever. FD is teh nuts, you didnt know?

[kazana]

Just raise a normal amount here (PSRish).

You're not increasing your FE much vs a shorty by shoving, and you get a chance of seeing a free turn card if he calls.
Make sure that you play sets/2pair the same way and you should do fine.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
Its a personal choise I guess. If you get rakeback go for it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

IT IS NOT A PERSONAL CHOICE.
WE ARE A FAVORITE/IN GREAT SHAPE AGAINST ANYTHING BUT A SET.
IT IS REALLY QUITE SIMPLE.
[/thread]

[dirtysanchez]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Its a personal choise I guess. If you get rakeback go for it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

IT IS NOT A PERSONAL CHOICE.
WE ARE A FAVORITE/IN GREAT SHAPE AGAINST ANYTHING BUT A SET.
IT IS REALLY QUITE SIMPLE.
[/thread]

[/ QUOTE ]

not to mention you're not in horrible shape vs a set

[corsakh]

Omg I totally appology. I did not notice the gutshot. Raise is good.

[Atlanta Andrew]

This play works best the more likely you are in a situation where only two options exist: (A) villain is folding or (B) all the money is going in. If this were the case, hero wants to maximize his folding equity by pushing.

I think that the villain is a bit too deep to do it in this hand, though. The beneifits gained by only raising to $4 are:

1. Possible free card on the turn.
2. Committing villain to call with a marginal hand when he calls flop raise and you spike.
3. Only a small change in fold equity from the push.

These benefits are meaningless if you know that your only possible outcomes are "A" and "B", but this villain is deep enough to give the three benfits listed some consideration.

-Andrew

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
This play works best the more likely you are in a situation where only two options exist: (A) villain is folding or (B) all the money is going in. If this were the case, hero wants to maximize his folding equity by pushing.

I think that the villain is a bit too deep to do it in this hand, though. The beneifits gained by only raising to $4 are:

1. Possible free card on the turn.
2. Committing villain to call with a marginal hand when he calls flop raise and you spike.
3. Only a small change in fold equity from the push.

These benefits are meaningless if you know that your only possible outcomes are "A" and "B", but this villain is deep enough to give the three benfits listed some consideration.

-Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.

Also if you make a normal raise villains stack will be tiny in relation to the pot if he calls. This makes the rest of the hand awkward.

[clownslayer2]

based on his stack size i think its good. hes gonna call if he hit that flop and you have a ton of outs.

[Atlanta Andrew]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain to me why this action is a bad thing when the turn and river are blanks.

-Andrew

[kazana]

[ QUOTE ]
I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
In that case, you've lost less than when you were pushing, got called, and the turn and river bricked.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, okay, but for the sake of argument, if Villain has pocket 2's and is not going to fold them, wouldn't we prefer the action you described on those occasions when we don't improve?

I don't know. At the table, I felt raising big was best -- partly because the limit player in me sees that small flop donkbet and thinks "weak made hand or draw" and I didn't know what Villain's follow-up was going to be on the turn (if I just called the flop). Also, though, I wasn't certain how I should interpret a shorty push from him on the turn if it came and I guess I wanted to avoid having to think about it /images/graemlins/blush.gif.

Also, I suppose I kind of wanted to experiment with this play when it didn't really commit very much money /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain to me why this action is a bad thing when the turn and river are blanks.

-Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel more like a man when I push.

[dirtysanchez]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, okay, but for the sake of argument, if Villain has pocket 2's and is not going to fold them, wouldn't we prefer the action you described on those occasions when we don't improve?

[/ QUOTE ]

just b/c he wont fold the flop doesnt mean he wont fold when an A hits or a heart hits or w/e. and if we arent going to get paid every time we hit with a draw this big we are better off getting it in on the flop, even if he calls w/ 22 every time.

[dirtysanchez]

[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain to me why this action is a bad thing when the turn and river are blanks.

-Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

what about when the turn hits us and villain folds b/c he is scared of the A or the flush or the straight? our equity is great here vs any likely range, and our FE (we have a tiny bit at least) + the times we take his stack will make up for the times we miss.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, okay, but for the sake of argument, if Villain has pocket 2's and is not going to fold them, wouldn't we prefer the action you described on those occasions when we don't improve?

[/ QUOTE ]

just b/c he wont fold the flop doesnt mean he wont fold when an A hits or a heart hits or w/e. and if we arent going to get paid every time we hit with a draw this big we are better off getting it in on the flop, even if he calls w/ 22 every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

The possibility that the cards that improve me will scare Villain into folding later is good to consider.

The math intrigues me, though. Let's say Villain check-folds the turn on an ace but doesn't let a potential wheel or flush trouble him, which actually seems realistic to me. (Er, and let's give him 9c7c so that he won't pick up a draw on an ace.)

All right, now about 1/15 of the time I'm going to catch on the turn in a way that doesn't get me paid. That doesn't seem like much of a problem, really, if I'm still usually getting paid when I catch and I save some money nearly half of the time when I don't improve at all on the turn or river.

But of course, that's just one scenario . . .

(We don't really know Villain is going to check twice after either getting called or raised normally on the flop, and then also maybe he is super-scared of flushes or something. Or maybe he'll even push a draw on the turn if I just call the flop, which is the main possibility I was worried about.)

[kazana]

It's imo pretty weird to assume a short villain will check/fold when a scarecard hits on the turn while getting laid around 5:1 (instead of bluffing!), but will call a flop raise for over half of his stack.

Not sure if I'm mislead here, but I'd be willing to say the chance of him folding after calling off 60-70% of his stack is very small.

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain to me why this action is a bad thing when the turn and river are blanks.

-Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

what about when the turn hits us and villain folds b/c he is scared of the A or the flush or the straight? our equity is great here vs any likely range, and our FE (we have a tiny bit at least) + the times we take his stack will make up for the times we miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a valid point, but I think the times we are saving $4.75 are greater than the times we lose it. Is villain really going to fold for his last $4.75 in a $15 pot after he calls $4 on the flop?

Our equity is likely around 50/50 on the flop so it's fine if we get all-in there. The push is certainly not bad. I prefer to have more control of that last $5, though, when we see our equity change for better or worse on the turn.

-Andrew

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
It's imo pretty weird to assume a short villain will check/fold when a scarecard hits on the turn while getting laid around 5:1 (instead of bluffing!), but will call a flop raise for over half of his stack.

Not sure if I'm mislead here, but I'd be willing to say the chance of him folding after calling off 60-70% of his stack is very small.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right about this. For some reason, though, at the table I only considered calling and raising big. And if I just called, I think Villain might have check-folded a weak made hand on a turn ace.

[BoozeHound]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
In that case, you've lost less than when you were pushing, got called, and the turn and river bricked.

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest, I don't think this river is ever checked by villain if you check behind the turn. I can't remember the last time villain saved the last fraction of his stack when you show weakness after a c-bet. This play is the only way we allow ourselves to be bet off the best hand (if villain was on the same flush draw, a straight draw, etc).

Not sure that makes shoving better, but it can't be ignored.

[Nick C]

My results this time were good -- sort of. Villain called all-in with KhTh, which of course would be a huge Fundamental Theorum of Poker mistake if he knew my cards.

But he spiked a T on the turn, and my redraws missed.

Thanks for the responses.