$25NL 6max (4players) AKo to POOOSH

[Speedlimits]

<font color="blue"> Villian is 21/15/2.2 over 200 hands</font>

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
4 players
Seat 1: Villian is UTG ($33.30)
Seat 2: Hero is Button ($42.85)
Seat 3: SB ($4.15)
Seat 6: BB($8.05)
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $4.15</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $33.3</font>, Hero ?

<font color="blue"> I really had a lot of trouble with this hand, is this an easy fold? It is only 4 handed and statistically it is very unlikely for Villian to have AA/KK. Thoughts?</font>

<font color="green"> Note: We are at 125BB's deep, not sure if that changes the decision or not</font>

[Reef]

if you haven't seen him get aggressive before the flop with 3 or 4 bets, I might actually consider folding. I don't think TAG , most likely regular, is going to do this with AQ.

[allaboutmyfetti]

Yeah I would fold this ... I think at best we're 50/50 and at worst we're dominated ... SB mini-push hasn't put nearly enough in the pot to make me want to *call* a 125BB push.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
if you haven't seen him get aggressive before the flop with 3 or 4 bets, I might actually consider folding. I don't think TAG , most likely regular, is going to do this with AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is we know Villian has Queens is it EV neutral since SB is all in or should we still fold?

[Gelford]

If you call there is 33.3 + 33.3 + 4.15 + 0.25 = 71$ in the pot.

It cost you 33.3-3.5=29.8$ to call.

If we put villian on a range that is AK and JJ+ then your equity is 39.8%

And that translates to 0.398x71$=28.26$

In other words you have to call 29,8$ to win 28.26$ which is a losing proposition in the long run.


This is the range I would put villian on, but it all comes down to the range you are putting him on. Find a range, do the math /images/graemlins/smile.gif


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 131241660 89482674.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 244579488 89482674.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you haven't seen him get aggressive before the flop with 3 or 4 bets, I might actually consider folding. I don't think TAG , most likely regular, is going to do this with AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is we know Villian has Queens is it EV neutral since SB is all in or should we still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]


If we know vilian has queens then your equity is 43.2% of 71$ which is 30.70$ and a profit in the long run

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.242% 43.03% 00.21% 53051544 260154.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 56.758% 56.55% 00.21% 69714036 260154.00 { QQ }

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call there is 33.3 + 33.3 + 4.15 + 0.25 = 71$ in the pot.

It cost you 33.3-3.5=29.8$ to call.

If we put villian on a range that is AK and JJ+ then your equity is 39.8%

And that translates to 0.398x71$=28.26$

In other words you have to call 29,8$ to win 28.26$ which is a losing proposition in the long run.


This is the range I would put villian on, but it all comes down to the range you are putting him on. Find a range, do the math /images/graemlins/smile.gif


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 131241660 89482674.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 244579488 89482674.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the math. So it is SLIGHTLY EV-. I knew it would be close, if it's suited does it make it EV+? I think so!

[Gelford]

Yep, AKs is +EV given a range of AK and JJ+


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 51337164 27822786.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 77946096 27822786.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Yep, AKs is +EV given a range of AK and JJ+


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 51337164 27822786.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 77946096 27822786.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

[/ QUOTE ]


Nice. I/images/graemlins/heart.gifpokerstove

FWIW Villian showed AA FTW. /images/graemlins/frown.gif