(25NL) AK on monochrome flop

[sebbb]

Villain is 32/26/1.4 over 50 hands

Where should I stop here? Am I tilting?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($44.10)
MP ($15.80)
Hero ($24.65)
Button ($24.65)
SB ($31.30)
BB ($57.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $12</font>, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($26.10) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $44.25 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $11.65 (All-In).

River: ($82) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $82

[FalconTi0]

i just call the flop.

[freedom18]

not to be an [censored] but do u know what pot odds are,
flop call is fine

[sebbb]

Pot odds?
Against a made flush I have 7 outs
Against TP or overpair: 14 outs at most
Against two pair or set: 9 outs

Pot odds on the minraised flop: 3:10 or 11 outs
On the turn: need 11 outs too

Ya I guess I sucked here

[elmopoker]

Fold on flop.

[FalconTi0]

you fold rather than call the initial bet?

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds?
Against a made flush I have 7 outs
Against TP or overpair: 14 outs at most
Against two pair or set: 9 outs

Pot odds on the minraised flop: 3:10 or 11 outs
On the turn: need 11 outs too

Ya I guess I sucked here

[/ QUOTE ]


Stop sucking here as well both of you.


This is a pot odds + expected FE play and not a pure pot odds spot.

When you raise flop, you are doing it because you expect to have some FE, so the equation is

(FE) x pot + (1-FE) x (the usual pot odds outs and etc stuff)


So the trick is not estimating pot odds as estimating how much FE we have .... and this is what should be discussed here and not pot odds, we can all calculate pot odds

[sebbb]

hmm ya but I did call on the flop as well as on the turn, so no FE. I agree there is FE in my flop raise.

My current thought is I have two options:

- raising the flop like I did then stop the aggression if he doesnt fold
- or calling the flop hope to get the nuts and getting paid

[allaboutmyfetti]

I raise this flop donk pretty much all day and 4b shove (unless the guy's a nit, but I don't think you have enough hands to tell) ...

[Hoffma]

[ QUOTE ]
My current thought is I have two options:

- raising the flop like I did then stop the aggression if he doesnt fold
- or calling the flop hope to get the nuts and getting paid

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed.

I seriously doubt you're up against TP or an overpair. Given this flop, I would expect to lose every time I don't make my nut flush, and even then I could still lose to a full house. I also expect to win by showdown only. I'm counting 7 or 8 outs at best. As played, your entire postflop line seemed -EV at first glance. Your flop raise has FE, but I'm calling here because I believe I need to draw out to win. I'm not betting wildly into someone who has me covered when I'm drawing. If I don't hit my flush, I'd still like to have some money at the table. You could call the flop and then call a PSB on the turn (a pretty terrible play imo), then fold your ace-high hand on the river with $15 still in front of you.

[allaboutmyfetti]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this flop donk pretty much all day and 4b shove (unless the guy's a nit, but I don't think you have enough hands to tell) ...

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm maybe this is too aggro ...

[allaboutmyfetti]

[ QUOTE ]

- or calling the flop hope to get the nuts and getting paid

[/ QUOTE ]
Most decent players aren't going to pay you off on a 4-suited board.

[sebbb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- or calling the flop hope to get the nuts and getting paid

[/ QUOTE ]
Most decent players aren't going to pay you off on a 4-suited board.

[/ QUOTE ]

so... third option, fold?

Thank you all for your advice

[Hoffma]

I am never folding this flop, but given the the villain's stats, maybe folding is the best option...? myfetti makes a good point. A decent player is only letting you win a small pot with a four flush, and this makes calling a PSB on the flop seem silly even if it is in line with pot odds.

I think I'd still rather make calls on this flop and turn, so long as my opponent's bet sizing makes calling correct.

[sebbb]

after thought: I tend to usually play my draws pretty aggressively, i.e. bet/raise as a semi-bluff. So I don't really like calling here.

So I guess the question is: is the sum of my FE and my implied odds good enough to warrant a raise, or should I fold?

I think after the minraise I have to fold, but other things can happen: he can fold, or he can call, and I might even get a free card after the turn. All of this I wouldn't get if I just called.
However my draw is pretty weak, and I might put myself in a difficult situation if I pair my king or ace. I might not even get paid if I get my flush.

I think I'm leaning towards folding now.

[Hoffma]

[ QUOTE ]
I think after the minraise I have to fold

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, you could push. You are either pushing or folding at that point, but certainly not calling.

[SmallPotJeff]

Three possible lines here:
1. Smooth call flop. fold to a big turn bet unless you improve (if you hit flush it's a no brainer, if you hit an A or K you'll have to be a little more careful and play some poker)
2. Raise the flop (as you did), then fold his 3bet if you think your overcard outs are no good (b/c he won't fold to a 4bet, and you'll be getting less than the 2:1 you need if you both go all-in)
3. Raise the flop, then 4bet push if you think you have FE or if there's a good chance your overcards are live, in which case you've got the odds you need to get it all in (and you want to get it in now, not call it off on the turn)