50NL: QJ hits trips on river, but I'm not happy.

[Check_The_Nuts]

guy is a regular, 15/12/2.7. Seems pretty solid, and I see him playing all the fin time. Definitely a really tight 2p2er. Stats are over 500 hands. Preflop is obviously bad....He's like 3/1.5/2.3 over flop turn river (AF). Mostly avoids me.

50NL, 5 handed.
Villian opens UTG for $2, I call on CO.

Flop: Qh 4h 8c:
villian checks, I check.

Turn 7d:
Villian bets $4.25, I call

River Qc: (Pot ~$12)
Villian checks, I bet $9, villian check raises all in for $40 total, [censored]!

[DrRock]

looks like he is giving you a lesson on why not to call a raise with QJ

[svidrigailov]

Ugly spot. Guess preflop is the easiest spot to avoid the river.

It's tough give villain credit for a strong hand though... this is a weird line from AQ, KQ, 44/88 and would be foolish with AA/KK. It feels like if villain wants to check a street with a set, it would be the turn and would bet river with KQish...

Instinctively I want give him ~AhKh, but that suggests we should call with a pair, which feels sick.

Are you very aggressive? Would he play a set like this because he knows you, knows you'll bet a lot of rivers, etc? What about timing on the river? I'm of little use here, but I'd like to hear opinions...

[Bonesy]

River over bet may be villain putting you on a queen that can't lay down. It's tough to put villain on a hand that beats you the way he played it. If you've never seen what that over bet means, I guess it's a lay down. The thing is, that flop is a pretty good flop for a cb on a miss and he checked it.

[Archon_Wing]

Aq/KQ would definitely bet out that flop-- he would be a complete fool to slowplay top pair. I think 77/88 are likely holdings. In general, at micro stakes we can assume villain is telling the truth unless he/she has proven otherwise. I really doubt he has a lower Q and he did c/r $31 into a $20 pot so feel free to not make this hero call.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Aq/KQ would definitely bet out that flop-- he would be a complete fool to slowplay top pair. I think 77/88 are likely holdings. In general, at micro stakes we can assume villain is telling the truth unless he/she has proven otherwise. I really doubt he has a lower Q and he did c/r $31 into a $20 pot so feel free to not make this hero call.

[/ QUOTE ]

my stats vary a lot, for those who asked. Between like crazy lag to tight nit. I think I was 22/18/3 and running/playing really bad. Was making me angry.

I agree with this analysis completely. I dont' think he ever checks AQ/KQ on that flop. I think he may check/raise with a set, and occasionally with a draw. I think a draw is still in his range on the turn.

I don't think he's good enuff to bluff with the busted draw here. Nobody folds trip queens on the river, nobody. Interested in others thoughts tho.

[Warteen]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody folds trip queens on the river, nobody.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda hoping you did here. I tend to agree with the analysis that his likely holdings are either 77 (or another set) or a complete bluff on the river.

[Phytopath]

Hero folds,
When the river is C/R like this you are definately beat, this would be an extremely crazy bluff by your "regular"

[Check_The_Nuts]

cool, he told me he had a 77 later on when I bitched at him for making me fold trip queens haha.....

its still a big fold, considering my hand is equal in value to AQ here...