Push with Nut flush draw + Overs?

[DannyOcean_]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($10.40)
BB ($14.55)
UTG ($9.45)
MP ($6)
Hero ($18.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $1.4</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $0.90.

Flop: ($2.95) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2.2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16.95</font>, BB calls $10.95 (All-In).

Final Pot: $33.05

Is the preflop call ok here? we have the button, so I thought seeing a flop was fine. With the nut flush draw and two over cards here, is this push ok? I assume we all play for stacks on this one and I wanted to be first in, pushing rather than calling a push. Thoughts?

[Nick C]

A benefit of your play: Villain might fold a better hand such as AK or even TT to your push. (And the pot isn't empty.)

A drawback: You're committing yourself to showdown if you get called. And you are an underdog to Villain's range when you're called. So if Villain has KK, for instance, you'll win the hand about 45 percent of the time, but that other 55 percent you'll lose an additional $10.95 (Villain's remaining stack). And my guess is that he probably wasn't going to push that $10.95 into the pot on the turn but would instead bet $4 or so and give you reasonable odds to continue drawing.

What I'm saying is that when you're playing with a draw versus people who underbet, you can take advantage of those underbets. (I realize Villain's 3/4 pot flop bet suggests he may not be so much of an under-bettor, but you were at the table and I wasn't, and I am saying that what you think he'll do on the turn is a consideration.)

[whyzze]

Standard. Well played. if he has KK you have 11 outs (45%), AA then you have 9 (36%). Fold equity makes this move +ev.

I call this preflop, but i feel I have above average post flop play.

Calling this flop is bad, you dont have the odds to call to your flush, and you probably wont on the turn either. Also, if your card hits, it may kill your action. get those chips in.

[Genz]

I don't hate it, but: Villain reraised you preflop. I think you should be quite conservative in counting your outs. You only have the full amount of outs against TT. Against most of his other holdings you are around 11 or 12. You have some fold equity, but I don't think it is that great in a reraised pot with a low flop like that. I think a call and reevaluation on the turn is a good way too. This is a reraised pot so it shouldn't be that difficult to get more money in when you hit.

[T-Bone98]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard. Well played. if he has KK you have 11 outs (45%), AA then you have 9 (36%). Fold equity makes this move +ev.

I call this preflop, but i feel I have above average post flop play.

Calling this flop is bad, you dont have the odds to call to your flush, and you probably wont on the turn either. Also, if your card hits, it may kill your action. get those chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree!

[AnyMouse]

You haven't set up the table and talked at all about the play or style of villain. Assuming it's a "typical" table and "typical" opponent for the stakes, I would say his range is most likely any pocket pair 99/TT+ and AQ/AK. So in a couple cases you are ahead and should definitely get the stacks in (vs. 99, TT), against most of the rest you're about even with dead money in the pot and fold equity from the push, and only against AA are you behind (but you're far from dead). Standard push as far as I'm concerned.

[AnyMouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't hate it, but: Villain reraised you preflop. I think you should be quite conservative in counting your outs. You only have the full amount of outs against TT. Against most of his other holdings you are around 11 or 12. You have some fold equity, but I don't think it is that great in a reraised pot with a low flop like that. I think a call and reevaluation on the turn is a good way too. This is a reraised pot so it shouldn't be that difficult to get more money in when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that if you're against a player you'd be worried about playing and who you'd give credit for the upper part of the range, it Will be hard to get much more in if the flush comes, whereas if the villain is not as strong, he's more likely to get chips in with the lower part of the range and also more likely to pay a flush. So in that case, you're best getting chips in sooner.

[Genz]

This is completely read-dependant, of course. In general, people tend to get married to overpairs, though, so that I think that he has decent implied odds.
And btw: the preflop reraise is quite massive. I don't think I call this very often. AJ is quite a big underdog in this kind of situation.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
So in a couple cases you are ahead and should definitely get the stacks in (vs. 99, TT)

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, if we knew Villain had TT and would call a push as a slight dog (as he should if he knew our cards, so we're really cheering for a fold), this still wouldn't automatically mean we should shove.

For instance, if he's going to bet $3 on the turn, and he's going to bet some other amount on the river (it doesn't really matter what it is, since we're not calling unimproved), and he's never folding no matter what, then we'd do much better just to call the flop bet and call again on the turn UI.

The assumptions I just gave are exaggerated and ridiculous, I know, but I'm trying to illustrate that sometimes when we have a play we know to be +EV, it's still good to consider the possibility that we have another option that's even more +EV.

Edit: I changed 99 to TT, since I'm pretty sure we're a slight favorite versus TT but I'm not sure about 99 (there's that gutshot redraw in addition to the set redraw versus our pair outs to consider).

[Jouster777]

We are IP so we can consider a call here. We are about 45% against a typical 3-bet range (AQs, AK, TT+) and if we say he will cbet 75% of the time with a whiffed flop then our FE is 33% (12 discounted combos of AK/AQ vs. 24 combos of TT+). Against the range that calls the push (TT+) we are still ~45% to win.

To compare the EVpush vs. EVcall we need to predict villain's turn bet size and what he will call if we hit our hand. Implied odds here are pretty weak but I'll say he'll (on average) call a 1/3 psb on turn and 1/4 psb on river when we hit. Villain's flop bet suggests to me that he'll make a 3/4 psb on the turn (sometimes less, sometimes push).

With these assumptions:
EVpush = $1.45
EVcall = $1.73

That's close enough to go either way given the many assumptions - esp. the assumptions about what villain will call as our hand is pretty obvious. Our EV goes way up if we think villain will slow down on turn and goes way down if villain will push a blank turn.

The read we need here is:
Is villain passive/calling station? - call
Is villain TAG? - push

I think a push here is probably best without a read and given the fairly strong flop bet.

[kazana]

I usually fold this preflop. I may be too pessimistic, but I find that typical 3-bet ranges are more like JJ+, AK, maybe AQs.
Add to that the good chance of being dominated, I'd rather fold pre unless villain has proven that he 3-bets light.

On the flop, at these stakes, I believe you're overestimating fold equity. Players do have a hard time folding overpairs or AK ui, so a call should throw off a profit if we hit.

[Elverian]

Preflop call is OK as long as you don't get too carried away if you pair the ace!
Certainly, at least one of your overcards will be dominated so count perhaps 2-3 outs there. We'll assume no set after his PF raise so the flush cards are all live outs. 11 or 12 I would reckon, and assume you are behind.

The push is OK as you have some fold equity, but why not reraise to $6?? If you get reraised all-in you have an autocall. C-betting hands will fold to the reraise anyway, and you may well buy a free river card if he flat calls you.