$25NL HU Flop Nuts Value Bet

[Speedlimits]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
2 players
Seat 3: Villian is BB ($27.85)
Seat 5: Hero is Button ($43.45)
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, BB calls.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($1.5, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($3.5, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2.25</font>, BB calls.

River: 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($8, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $5</font> Hero?

<font color="blue"> Does anyone like a value push here? What about flat calling? </font>

Comments are appreciated, I am relatively inexperienced in Heads Up Play.

[Xanta]

It would make absolutely zero sense for villain to slowplay a set or two pair on the flop here especially heads up, so I'd go ahead and value push and watch him call with a lot of hearts. Then again, I've never played much heads up so caveat emptor.

[catalyst]

Yes, I am definitely shoving here. I am also betting larger on the flop and turn for value.

[VPIP100]

I'd shove.

[Jouster777]

How often does the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif call a shove here with $18 behind? I'd say its pretty low - &lt;15%. He calls a minraise 90% of the time with the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
EVminraise= $4.5
EVpush=$2.7

However, he has a boat or SF here 10% of the time. So, we need to subtract $1.80 from each of those numbers (actually a bit more than $1.80) for those times we are beat (assuming we call if we face a push on our minraise).

These assumptions seem pretty conservative. Pushing is inferior to a smaller bet when we are ahead and if we are behind &gt;25% of the time then we should just call.

[catalyst]

How often do you really think we are behind? His FH range is very, very small considering how the hand was played out. Also, in a HU $25NL game I think villain pays off a shove plenty of times with Kh and worse.

[VPIP100]

I think HU a K calls more than 15% of the time.

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
I think HU a K calls more than 15% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]That's a key assumption obviously and I'm open to other estimates - what do you think it is?

The other aspect to consider is that I wasn't saying the minraise is the "best" amount to bet and we fold a K/images/graemlins/heart.gif with a $7-10 bet about the same amount as a minraise.

Also, if we bet small and face a push is it ever EV+ to fold? Worth considering - probably not.