25NL -- QQ vs UTG raise from mouse, how's my line?

[Maple Leafs]

UTG is 15% VP$IP and 1.83% PFR (160 hands). Help me walk through this line.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $23.40
UTG+1: $23.75
MP1: $25.05
MP2: $24.75
MP3: $41.75
CO: $34.10
Hero: $25.55
SB: $25.70
BB: $59.90

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $1</font>, 5 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds.

What could villian's raising range be UTG? AA, KK, QQ, maybe AK? JJ if we stretch it? I could see an argument for a raise here to "find out where I'm at", but I think I know where I'm at and it's not good. I probably get a re-raise against AA and a call otherwise, so I'm not sure what I gain there. Maybe I fold out JJ if it's there.

Anyone want to argue for a fold? I think implied odds for set value are enough to keep going.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif ($2.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $1.5</font>, Hero calls.

No set, but not a bad flop. Villian bets it but it smells like a c-bet. Maybe it's AK after all?

I thought about a re-raise, but I don't think the board is scary enough for him to fold unless he puts me on JJ. So I call and plan to get aggressive if the flush or straight draw arrives. (Is this a "float"?)

Turn: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($5.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $1.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, UTG calls.

No draw, but another J is almost as good and villian is starting to look weak. How's the re-raise here? Not enough, is it?

River: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($13.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

I have to bet here (yes?), but how much? If he has AA or KK he could be willing to lay it down. Of xourse if he has AK I'm actually betting for value. How much do you throw out there?

[RunDownHouse]

Guys this timid usually aren't calling that turn scare card with AK, and they certainly won't call a river bet with it UI. It looks more like you put him in a shell with the raise on the paired turn unless you've got some read that he's a big calling station.

I have no idea what you should do on the river.

[Supwithbates]

raise to 7-8 on the turn. check behind on the river.

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
As played, or with larger turn raise?

[br.bm]

Preflop is fine. What if AA decides to call? Or AK reraises you?
All sucks. Calling for set value is fine.

I really love flop and turn. If you raise the flop you will find yourself in a big pot on the river. We dont want it.
The turn raise if nice because it enables you to check behind on the river.
Let's say he has AA, KK, JJ or AK.
AA and KK will call your river bet. JJ, AJ is going to check raise. AK will fold.
I can't see any worse hand call your river bet. Just check behind.

I like the size of the turn raise.
floating: You know somebody often cbets with air. (AK unimproved etc) He's also loose and does this with all kind of hands.
Well, get position on him, call his cbet on the flop and if he checks the turn you bet and he folds.

[corsakh]

If you get a read on someone, you have to follow it through all the way to the river. You can't just put someone on JJ+ and then call a J high flop with QQ simply because if you read is correct you are beat everytime. And if not, you made a mistake preflop and now you have no choise but to fold.

By not raising preflop and then calling this flop against this viallin you are entering a world of pain and there is no "right" decision on the later streets as they all suck unless you hit a queen.

[elmopoker]

I'd reraise preflop. Raising UTG doesn't mean high pockets or AK. If he comes over the top or shoves i'd ponder a fold since you might behind anyway, but if he just calls you can start to put him on lower pockets or AQ / AK hands.

[corsakh]

What do you think PFR 1.83% raises, 23o for crist sake?

[AntonHeat]

Raise Pre around 4$

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
By not raising preflop and then calling this flop against this viallin you are entering a world of pain and there is no "right" decision on the later streets as they all suck unless you hit a queen.

[/ QUOTE ]
What about the possibility of a board that's scary enough that I could push the villian off a better hand if I suddenly "woke up" and started firing?

I'd argue that 1.83% pfr at this level isn't just being tight, it's playing scared. If I give him a reason to be scared, can't I still win the hand? Play the player, etc?

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
... if he just calls you can start to put him on lower pockets or AQ / AK hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
At 1.83% pfr, I'd think that the chances of him having low pockets or AQ here is approximately zero.

[corsakh]

I'd say zero is pretty generous in this case /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[boycalledroy]

Reraise preflop to 4. If he pushes then you are gone as he DOES have AA or KK. The thing is the 3bet followed by a cbet will probably make him throw away his KK. How you have played it he could have 1010, JJ, QQ, KK, AA.

If he pushes/raises your hand is probably dominated, and wait again to get paid off. If he does not push and just calls then _you_ have the momentum and fold equity in this hand and _you_ learn a lot more.

If you did such on this hand and checked behind on the flop and bet the 2nd Jack, this guy would be folding AA/KK or anything thats got no Jack in it.

Thats how I'd play the hand.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is the 3bet followed by a cbet will probably make him throw away his KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
Reraise preflop to 4. If he pushes then you are gone as he DOES have AA or KK. The thing is the 3bet followed by a cbet will probably make him throw away his KK. How you have played it he could have 1010, JJ, QQ, KK, AA.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does it change the equation if I think he's very unlikely to have TT, and probably not even JJ? At that point, aren't I just paying for information that I already have (i.e. he has a big hand that he likes a lot), and losing my chance to hit a set?

[Warteen]

Read is only on 160 hands. That's nothing. Villain could well be a TAG who is running cold. Still, if you feel your read is good, call preflop, call flop, raise turn is good (because it gets him to stop), and you must check behind on the river (because no hand you're ahead of, save TT, is calling you).

[illadelph86]

um. reraise pre. i like your flop call and turn raise but raise alittle more, make him pay for his draw/see where you stand. check the river. you dont get called by a worse hand here. IF he does have a big hand he's prob expecting/hoping that his check on the river will make you bet given your turn raise. you get 0 value out of a bet on the river. besides getting yourself in a horrible spot if he c/r.

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
make him pay for his draw

[/ QUOTE ]
What possible drawing hand could a 1.83% pfr UTG have here? Maybe AdKd?

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
Read is only on 160 hands. That's nothing. Villain could well be a TAG who is running cold.

[/ QUOTE ]
True. Tough to get significantly more hands on guys at this level, though.

[ QUOTE ]
Still, if you feel your read is good, call preflop, call flop, raise turn is good (because it gets him to stop), and you must check behind on the river (because no hand you're ahead of, save TT, is calling you).

[/ QUOTE ]
But does a hand I'm behind fold? I'm telling him I have a J, can I make a bet that makes him believe me?

[illadelph86]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
make him pay for his draw

[/ QUOTE ]
What possible drawing hand could a 1.83% pfr UTG have here? Maybe AdKd?

[/ QUOTE ]

sry skipped over that part. mostly seeing where you stand.

[ipushufold]

The preflop call is good in my eyes. This guy is raising only 1.58% of his hands for 160 hands (enough to get a view on him since it's all about his cards that matters when he decide to raise, and he is UTG).

I like the flop call too, I don't raise it here, players with AA and KK will never fold and likely come over the top or call you down. Are you disciplined to fold to a reraise even if you have an overpair as nice as QQ?

His turn bet looks weak and kind of scared. Perhaps he will fold thinking we called with a jack. I raise too. Slightly bigger tho. Around 6.5$. Now that he calls your 4$ bet I check behind the river. If me made it somewhat bigger on turn, I'd be more inclined to push the river.

He will call us on river with AA and KK plenty here unless we make him play for all of his stack.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
The preflop call is good in my eyes. This guy is raising only 1.58% of his hands for 160 hands (enough to get a view on him since it's all about his cards that matters when he decide to raise, and he is UTG).

I like the flop call too, I don't raise it here, players with AA and KK will never fold and likely come over the top or call you down. Are you disciplined to fold to a reraise even if you have an overpair as nice as QQ?

His turn bet looks weak and kind of scared. Perhaps he will fold thinking we called with a jack. I raise too. Slightly bigger tho. Around 6.5$. Now that he calls your 4$ bet I check behind the river. If me made it somewhat bigger on turn, I'd be more inclined to push the river.

He will call us on river with AA and KK plenty here unless we make him play for all of his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should post more. Welcome /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should post more. Welcome /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed, thanks for the thoughtful post ipushufold.

[SmallPotJeff]

::Grunch::

[ QUOTE ]
River: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($13.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

I have to bet here (yes?), but how much? If he has AA or KK he could be willing to lay it down. Of xourse if he has AK I'm actually betting for value. How much do you throw out there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me get this straight - you're hoping to get AA or KK to lay down, but you're hoping A hi will call for value? I sincerely hope something strikes you as off about this reasoning.

And no, you do not have to bet there. There is no value there. He called turn when the board paired - he's playing it like he has AA or KK. If he has AK, he will not call for any amount, if he has AA or KK you're going to have to risk a lot to have a good chance of him folding - chances are he'll call and you'll feel the fool for betting with a marginal hand.

I check the river all day and pray for TT or AK.

[Maple Leafs]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me get this straight - you're hoping to get AA or KK to lay down, but you're hoping A hi will call for value? I sincerely hope something strikes you as off about this reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course. I realize I can't have it both ways, so I'm wondering which path I should be looking to follow here.

Consensus seems to be: neither, check behind.

[Leviathan101]

betting here is terrible. You fold everything you beat, and everything that beats you calls. I would not assume any player at this limit can fold AA or KK without an Ace on the flop.

[Jouster777]

Maybe he isn't positionally aware but I usually cut PFR % in half with a raise from UTG. This means he is raising &lt;1% of his hands which equates to AA/KK only.

I realize that the sample size is small so numbers may be off but anyone giving a range &gt; AA/KK/AK is ignoring the "best available data".

The turn bet did plenty to "investigate" for AK. Trying to fold AA/KK is horrible spew. Check behind on river.

[AliasMrJones]

An important consideration here since we're dealing with post-flop decisions is postflop aggro. Unfortunately you only posted his pre-flop stats.

I'd usually RR in this spot, but given his very low PFR, a call PF seems OK to me. I like calling the turn rather than raising. Given his PFR you're likely WA/WB here and I think I'd prefer to keep the pot small. It seems unlikely he has a decent draw. I'd then bet about 40% pot on river as a value bet. (It will look like a J- value bet to opponent.

As played, I think I check behind. You made your play on the turn and he called. He looks like he wants to go to showdown and you don't beat anything that he'll call with.

[Maple Leafs]

Good feedback everyone.

As it was played, I did make about a half-pot river bet. Will rethink for next time.