Big river overpush by weird villan

[wall_st]

title says it all villan is 21/1.5 pfr and 1.78 AF over about 100 hands. Large river pushes like this confuse me quite a bit. I don't really beat much on except a bluff on the river is my feeling.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($52.35)
Button ($82.70)
SB ($50.15)
BB ($48.25)
UTG ($90.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $9</font>, Hero calls $5.50.

Turn: ($22.25) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($22.25) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $37.25 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

Final Pot: $59.50

[FalconTi0]

im not sure myself so i want to see some answers also. all i know is whenever this happens im usually up against a monster.

[EMc]

Wow this is tough. Villain is saying I have the nuts here. It takes discpline, but I think a fold is right.

[Genz]

His check on the turn after his check/raise on the flop is weird. Looking at his stats, I can't really believe he is good enough to try to make it look like a steal on the flop so that you think he is bluffing on the river. But it could be one of those "insta-slowplay" that many people do as soon as they hit big. The only thing you did was making a cbet on the flop. So he might be afraid to loose you if he bets the turn. The huge riverbet is really stupid then, though. Probably one of those, who say "The most profit I made on uNL was by just pushing AA, KK preflop. There's always someone who calls."
Villain is a very tight preflop raiser. From his stats alone, I don't think he would reraise with JJ or AK. But he is probably loose enough to call with KJ or even K8s from that position.
A fold is probably correct. The chance that you are up against a FH or AK is just too big.

Generally: I think you should bet that turn after you hit your trips. If he raises again, you have an easier fold.

[wall_st]

I don't see any value in betting the turn because we get worse hands to fold and better hands to push, on top of that if worse hands push and we are planning on folding we are also in a bad spot.

[Nick C]

Well, if we take Villain at his word on the turn, then he was either scared by your call of that flop checkraise or by that second king on the board. This suggests a hand like AA or QQ or TT.

Of course, he could have shifted into slowplay mode instead since he just boated up or just made trips . . .

And I suppose if he's tricky enough, he could have QT. Or in any case, there is some chance he interpreted your turn check as fear/weakness and is either making a big bluff because he thinks he can take the pot or once again thinks his AA is the nuts.

It's troubling that if he's got a king, there's a really good chance it beats yours either because it's a boat (that jack on the board is a problem) or because it's AK. Anyway, I gather from the final pot size that you folded, and that seems okay to me.

[RAHZero]

Does anybody fold to the flop c/r? When a tight-passive does this, I find it's rarely anything that we beat with KQ here. Guys like this don't cold-call KT or worse OOP, and don't c/r with those type hands on the flop. Given the 1.5 PFR, I also doubt he reraises JJ or AK PF. Flop c/r from a player with these stats screams strength on a dry board like this. I think the best we can expect on the flop is a split with another KQ, anything else he's check-raising on this flop has us beat. If he starts doing this a lot, then you start to play back. As played, fold the river, over-bet shove from a tight-passive = the nuts 99% of the time. This is almost certainly JJ/KJ, sometimes AK, pretty much never anything that you have beat.

[barryc83]

Overbet shove=teh nuts. Fold river. I think I'll agree with RAH that folding to the flop c/r is good, but I'm not sure that I'd do it in game.

[Sneds9]

TBH, I think that he filled his boat on the turn. And was praying you have a K. I would expect to see 22 here a lot. (possibly JK)

[lippy]

I totally disagree with a fold here.

He CR'd the flop then checked the turn... how many Villains CR top 2 or a set then slow down on the turn? Villains either slow play or betbetbet.

I'm guessing he has folded to a few of your c-bets in a row and is trying to get that to stop with a gutshot, middle/top pair or an OESD. When you check the turn, he finds weakness and pushes.

I snap call this and don't think twice about it.

[Sneds9]

Lol, when somebody puts $37 into the pot, you simply do not have the odds to be calling a bluff.

You need to be correct sooo many times, and although I agree that this could definately be a bluff, it also could be a value river push. And the amount that the Op has to call in order to be correct makes this an unprofitable play in the long run.

[EMc]

I didnt mention this in my first post but you really should fold to the flop c/r as others said. Unless you have seen him c/r bluff before, then you beat pretty much nothing here ever.

[barryc83]

I dont agree with lippy at all. This guy boated up on the turn, hoped the K hit you and wanted you to bet. He's got KJ/JJ/22 here the overwhelming majority of the time IMO. Look at his stats, hes a nut peddler. He calls pf a lot and plays fit or fold postflop. Against opponents like this I will cbet 100% of the time HU and fold to any aggression unless I have a very strong hand.

[Phytopath]

Nah the Villian could easily be trying for the ever popular "double check raise". They teach this in day two of Donkey 101.

Anyway I probably call the flop C/R and see how serious your villian is. Passives try and make up alot of value from slow playing their monsters by making massive river bets.

KJ/JJ/22 are definately more likely than anything you beat. I doubt he even plays AK for the overbet.

[wall_st]

Villan played this hand earlier. During when I was using the timer for this hand. I went back in the history and viewed this hand. Villan is MP in this hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($58.40)
BB ($79.35)
UTG ($32.25)
MP ($58.20)
Button ($88.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $1.5</font>, MP calls $1.50, Hero folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($5) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $4</font>, MP calls $4.

River: ($13) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $9</font>, MP calls $9.

Final Pot: $31

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has Kc Tc (two pair, kings and tens).
MP has Qh Kd (one pair, kings).
Outcome: UTG wins $31. </font>

[SCBielski]

This is definately a weird play, but I think our villain may have flopped a set or two pair with KJ. The check on the turn is an attempt to make you think he was making a play to set you up to call the river. I think our villain is actually a pretty smart postflop player, just uber tight. The smooth call with KQ in the second hand posted makes me further believe that our villain flopped massive on you. I'd fold.