nuts on river vs drawing villain - to lead or not to lead

[matrix]

villain is a 40/20/2 type and got his nice fat stack by 3betting KK allin preflop and getting called by AJ and AK and tripling through...

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $25
CO: $98.53
Button: $8.10
SB: $38.45
Matrix: $75.90

Pre-flop: (5 players) Matrix is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Matrix checks.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($1, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Matrix bets $0.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, Matrix calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/club.gif ($5, 2 players)
Matrix checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $4</font>, Matrix calls.

River: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($13, 2 players)
Matrix ???

comments on line so far??

what range has villain got and what should I do on this river?

[Gelford]

Hopefully you look like someone drawing to the diamond flush and he is not someone drawing to the diamond flush.

Another check might be in order, but actually if we are going to get cute, why not go for the busted draw tries to bluff and bet 6$ or something like that in the hope of a reraise ??


This doesn't look like a situation, where you will earn much unless he has a Q


But frankly I really dunno what is best here ???


Edit, with regards to range it is wide, I am guessing he has two pair of some sort unless he has two diamonds ... very open hand.

[barryc83]

You have to c/r this turn. Build a pot here man, raise turn to $14, then lead river for about 3/4 pot-PSB, direct route to valuetown. As played, that card probably just killed your action, I'd lead for $10. On the turn he's gonna play JT like the nuts so put some money in.

[FalconTi0]

i agree with barry but i make a smaller bet on the river.....maybe it looks weak and i get raised

[EMc]

There needs to be more money put in on the turn IMO. You have the nuts, and are deep. This is a great situation for a c/r. If he doesnt call you arent getting much out of him anyway.

[Genz]

I vote for the raise on the turn. As played, I bet smallish and hope I get a call by a busted draw with overs or even get raised by some 2pair or set.

[RAHZero]

AAHHHH! Lead or c/r that turn, flat calling is teh suck. Don't you want to build a big pot with the nuts? If he has the flush draw, you want to bet/raise for value and protection. If not, you want to bet/raise to get more value, and to get money into the pot before the river has a chance to kill your action (in the case of this river here, or another diamond). As played, this is a weird spot, and there are a ton of things you could do here. You could check (risky), hoping to get in a check-raise (if he bets anything substantial, I love a c/r all-in), you could lead out weakly and hope to get raised (lead for $6-7, shove to a raise), or you could go for the big move and overbet shove. Of these, I like the small lead the best. If still gets value from a lot of two pair type hands that would just check behind or fold to a big bet, and might look weak enough to get raised by a set or a busted flush draw.

[kazana]

This is probably the only spot where a c/r on the turn is my semi-automatic play.
He has shown strength by raising your flop bet, so there's a good chance he either has a hand that he likes a lot, or that he might think you're trying "to get even" for his flop raise and thus will take a not-so-great hand too deep.

[munkey]

I c/r turn, fdraw still live.
Then open shove rest on river, if he calls the turn raise he is more likely to hold a queen. Hope he's got one and stacks off to your higher str8. This is my standard 100bbs approach - problem is your deep so I would c/raise turn and then pot river, he might raise us on the river and reopen betting so less on the river[1/2] may be more /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Sneds9]

Pushing river sounds v good.

IMO, with 4 to the straight here you'll find it very hard to extract a decent amount of money out of him, if he hasn't got the straight. So I'd rather push and get called say 1 time in 6 because I think it'll maximise profits in this situation.

[matrix]

k I am normally playing hands fastfastfast - or at least I was on this table up to now (FWIW I don't think I payed this well at all - hence my posting it) - I'd been having a hard time of things getting rivered on almost every hand where lots of chips went in and I decided to play it a little slower up to the river to make sure I didn't get sucked out on - on the turn I put villain squarely on a draw - probably diamonds, hopefully the straight draw.

Badbadbadbadbad - as any in-sewer-ants salesman will tell you past performance does not have any correlation with future performance, his draw will miss as many times as it is sposed to waiting to be sure you have the winnar is good for variamce reduction - but bad for winrate.

as noted in several replies I agree not c/r this turn is criminal - mostly cos we are deep and that draw misses 3times more than it hits if he has the flush flavoured one..

100BB deep I stack-a-donk the turn on autopilot, 300 deep I got lost, must work more on ye deepstack play.

This was the first hand in a while he'd played at all and I don't want to scare him off cos I imagined he's gonna keep up with the bluffing on the river as well and if he has a draw that's busted I can't see him calling a VB on this river he's more a raise or fold kind of player.

As played on this river I don't like a small VB - I think people like this are waaaay more likely to bet out the river if you check it to them at which point a c/r all-in is super sexy time. leading the river after being passive the rest of the hand is just an open invitation for them to fold.

I checked the river - he tanked wound his clock down - all the time I'm thinking he's betting big - and then he checked behind /images/graemlins/frown.gif

arse.

[corsakh]

Check is an option. I would raise the turn though.

On the river I personally push everytime I have anything close to the nuts. You would not believe what people are calling with /images/graemlins/smile.gif

And this is actually an ideal situation to do so, since he is not folding a straight here /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]


And this is actually an ideal situation to do so, since he is not folding a straight here /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

er I don't think so - if he has ANY kind of hand he's betting the river - he's not calling an open push with a busted draw - he more often than not half pots/pots the river here with a missed draw cos I played this exactly like I'm drawing. Don't forget he's a "raise or fold" flavoured donk - vs a calling station I /images/graemlins/heart.gif pushing here.

100-150 deep I like a push more vs this villain cos he might well think I'm bluffing and call with any pair - this deep I really don't see him calling an open push without a straight - and if he has the straight I can c/r river all-in and get all the value I can eat anyway.

I butchered the turn tho.