$25NL 6max Squeeze Play OOP

[Speedlimits]

<font color="blue">UTG+1 is 31/27/2.9</font>
<font color="blue"> Villian is 54/3/.6</font>

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Seat 1: BB ($34.25)
Seat 2: UTG ($24.90), is sitting out
Seat 3: UTG+1 ($32.50)
Seat 4: CO ($69.75)
Seat 5: Villian is Button ($20.60)
Seat 6: Hero is SB ($25.10)
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $0.85</font>, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, Button calls.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($9.1, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero ?

<font color="blue">I think betting is the best play but do I call a push? Does anyone like checking here?</font>

[arsenal905]

i always bet here, and fold to a push. if he pushes, at best, you're up against aq or ak of spades.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
i always bet here, and fold to a push. if he pushes, at best, you're up against aq or ak of spades.

[/ QUOTE ]

You fold to a push getting 3 to 1?

[arsenal905]

I think so. Is this incorrect?

[DWarrior]

This is weird, I'd bet $8 here and fold to a push all the time.

I did the math to see if the 3:1 odds are worth it:


Board: 2c Js 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.895% 13.90% 00.00% 6603 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 86.105% 86.10% 00.00% 40917 0.00 { JJ, 44, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AJs, KsQs, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo }

So let's say you win 15% when you call (upped it from 13.9% just in case his range is wider). Let's see how often the villain has to bluff. I assume you win 85% when he bluffs.

(1-x)(.15*32-.85*8.6)+x(.85*32-.15*8.6)&gt;0 where x is the % of time villain bluffs
-2.51+2.51x+26.18x&gt;0
x=8.7%

If villain bluffs more than 8.7% of the time, we're +EV to call the push. It's interesting, but I don't think villain bluffs here with that aggression. Also it's extremely high variance for very little profit and I think we can avoid it even if it could in theory be profitable.

[Check_The_Nuts]

y bet 8 when you can bet 6 or 7? I think I'd bet 6 and fold to further action. Can't really check/call the flop since you can't call another bet (and he'll bluff a fair bit after that I think)..

wait a sec he's super-passive. Check/calling a flop bet is probably fine (but very marginal).

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
wait a sec he's super-passive. Check/calling a flop bet is probably fine (but very marginal).

[/ QUOTE ]

This does not compute, if he's super-passive then surely you're behind every single time he bets.

Also, if he's a station then he'll probably call off his stack with a PP on that board, so if he calls, push blank turn.

PS, in retrospect, $7 bet is probably better, but the difference isn't that big.

[Check_The_Nuts]

D, even a guy with 0.5 AF will think you have whiffed overs and may bet that flop/turn/river. I wouldn't call anything big (if he bets pot I'm outta there), but a 5-6 dollar bet on one of the streets I may call, again pretty thin.

If you check the flop its with plans to check it down IMO. and I think even if he is a station its crazy to think you can get AI here and be good very often.

[jonyy6788]

why are you reraising to $4 when you have a 54/3 with no aggression raising UTG. The best you can hope for is bet $6 and pray he folds.

[DWarrior]

I'm guessing UTG+1 in reads and UTG in hand are the same person. Thus, he's squeezing the 27% PFR lagtard and the 54 vpip station caller.

[Check_The_Nuts]

I agree that the squeeze sucks vs fish most of the time cuz ur hand has too much value and guy will call with crap like AJ....

[DWarrior]

But AJ is way up in his range. I'd raise pf because I know I'm ahead of the two opponents' ranges, but I don't know how to play post-flop with mid pair with 2 guys who can have a lot of random hands. Set mining is obviously out, and calling will leave you OOP vs the aggressor and no idea where you stand.

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing UTG+1 in reads and UTG in hand are the same person. Thus, he's squeezing the 27% PFR lagtard and the 54 vpip station caller.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i dont pay enuf attn.....

regardless, i just play this for set value

[DWarrior]

nit

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
why are you reraising to $4 when you have a 54/3 with no aggression raising UTG. The best you can hope for is bet $6 and pray he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Reread the OP.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
This is weird, I'd bet $8 here and fold to a push all the time.

I did the math to see if the 3:1 odds are worth it:


Board: 2c Js 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.895% 13.90% 00.00% 6603 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 86.105% 86.10% 00.00% 40917 0.00 { JJ, 44, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AJs, KsQs, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo }

So let's say you win 15% when you call (upped it from 13.9% just in case his range is wider). Let's see how often the villain has to bluff. I assume you win 85% when he bluffs.

(1-x)(.15*32-.85*8.6)+x(.85*32-.15*8.6)&gt;0 where x is the % of time villain bluffs
-2.51+2.51x+26.18x&gt;0
x=8.7%

If villain bluffs more than 8.7% of the time, we're +EV to call the push. It's interesting, but I don't think villain bluffs here with that aggression. Also it's extremely high variance for very little profit and I think we can avoid it even if it could in theory be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post. I actually agree with the Bet/Fold line on the flop. I bet $7 and he pushed on me, I called thinking (incorrectly) I had proper odds (3:1). Villian flipped over AJ FTW.

PF play is so standard here, just calling is definitely less EV.

[Check_The_Nuts]

thats the problem with repopping here, your forcing your opponent to play nearly correctly versus you when he hits (and you don't), and its pretty rare for you to hit and him to hit at the same time.

[DWarrior]

I think in that spot it's better to let him play perfectly when he hits versus calling and setting yourself up for a tough situation.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
I think in that spot it's better to let him play perfectly when he hits versus calling and setting yourself up for a tough situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

its not really a tough situation. You can call here for set value alone versus a huge fish like that, plus the super-lag is gunna generate action on his own that will help you. The fish has some big weaknesses, knowing them+being able to exploit them (even OOP) is what makes us&gt;them....

[DWarrior]

I think calling for set value is not optimal here because the raiser's range is wide, and the caller's range is wide. Thus, when you flop your set, it's unlikely that they'll connect enough to make it worth your while.

I think calling here for set value would be best if the fish raised UTG, and the lagtard called on the button. Fish would be very likely to have KK+ and you could try for a c/r to potentially trap button for an extra bet.

[Check_The_Nuts]

humm I guess its OK, but I'd prefer to do it with KQ/AK/AQ/JJ+. All of these hands can extract from weaker hands, and have better equity if they have to call all in (better equity here, against guys push range). 6 outs/usually 3 outs&gt;2 outs.

edit: DW your example situation is of course ideal, but not that relevant to a squeeze here against a guy who doesn't know any better to just fold preflop.

[DWarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: DW your example situation is of course ideal, but not that relevant to a squeeze here against a guy who doesn't know any better to just fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I don't think this is a squeeze play necessarily, because you're really doing it out of value.

[Jay Riall]

Preflop is really bad imo at 25NL. Just call with awesome odds to hit a set or decent overpair. Light 3betting in general at anything up to 200NL is really, really dumb.

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is really bad imo at 25NL. Just call with awesome odds to hit a set or decent overpair. Light 3betting in general at anything up to 200NL is really, really dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

ty

[EMc]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is really bad imo at 25NL. Just call with awesome odds to hit a set or decent overpair. Light 3betting in general at anything up to 200NL is really, really dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

To add: You are sacrificing value here with the squeeze.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is really bad imo at 25NL. Just call with awesome odds to hit a set or decent overpair. Light 3betting in general at anything up to 200NL is really, really dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good to know. What's your 3betting range?

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is really bad imo at 25NL. Just call with awesome odds to hit a set or decent overpair. Light 3betting in general at anything up to 200NL is really, really dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good to know. What's your 3betting range?

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ+, AQ+. Sometimes just calling the AQ and JJ depending on table conditions, players.