So when does the Heater end?

[Poolgod32]

Ok
So I started the new year (actually 2 days before) playing $11 PP SNGs according to a strategy guide I found here at 2+2. Its your basic Push-fold strategy.

After my first 26 SNGs my stats are ridiculous
ITM 50%
ROI 67.83%

I know this sample size is insignificant so please keep the flames to yourself. My question is at what point do stats become meaningful at the 11s? 200, 500, 1000?
I left these boards for several months so I cannot remember what sort of level were agreed upon to become signifcant.
My other question is does this sort of strategy work at the higher levels specifically 22s and 33s? If my bankroll continues to grow I may play the occassional higher SNG.

[Roland32]

FAQ at top of the board

[Matt R.]

They become more meaningful the more you play, that's the main thing you need to understand.

Put another way, when you go on your first downswing, you're getting closer to your true winrate. Don't start saying "My actual winrate is higher because I am currently running bad". I think that's the key most people overlook.

As far as an actual # goes... I don't know exactly, but I'd say your 500 number sounds like you may start being able to estimate how good you are relative to those you're playing against. But even with this number, there will still be a small likelihood you're way off your true winrate. You will at least probably be in the vicinity though.

[FoxVR6]

That's nothing, I'm at 80% ROI for my first 30 22's of the new year. Of course, on December 31, I went 11 OOTM in a row, but who's counting 2005?

[jmillerdls]

Alright. I went through something similar to this...I wasn't using the guide on here, but the book Kill Phil at the start of December on the 11's. I was killing them. I knew my ROI was ridiculous, but it took a long while for it to settle, and it didn't ever get that low even after doing 255 of them during December.
I was playing about 30 a day and had days over 100% ROI. I ended my play at the 10's after 255 of them and a 35% ROI.
I moved up to the 20's to see if I could keep up the hot streak, but haven't been as lucky. I would say the play is different at the 11's, but only marginally. I think if you can have 20%+ ROI at the 10's over 200 of them, you'll be able to beat the 20's. The same strategies work.
I am below 15% ROI at the 20's as of now, so if I could have kept up the same ROI at the 10's, I may have been more profitable just staying there. However, I felt it was unlikely that was my true ROI, and didn't feel like staying there long enough to find out.

[fl0w]

Care to enlighten another fellow 2+2 on which guide you mean? Is it Aleomagus old one?

[ur2god]

well i was up 1k in 7 days on the 11s, thats some fukin
heater. anyway it started going downhill a bit till one
day i went down 500 lol. anyway id say about 1k games is good.

[Grivan]

If you lost $500 in one day at the 11s you might have cause for concern.

[Hendricks433]

for my first 31 22's this month I got like 60% ROI 58% ITM. Nice $400-$500 for the month so far /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jmillerdls]

Yeah, I'm trying to figure out how that could be possible in one day.

[Hendricks433]

wow $500 in 1 day at the 11's. 50 buy ins is alot.

[ur2god]

[ QUOTE ]
If you lost $500 in one day at the 11s you might have cause for concern.

[/ QUOTE ]
i got pissed so i moved up to 20 sng, result after 24
games -280

[kolotoure]

[ QUOTE ]
If you lost $500 in one day at the 11s you might have cause for concern.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mos Def

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you lost $500 in one day at the 11s you might have cause for concern.

[/ QUOTE ]
i got pissed so i moved up to 20 sng, result after 24
games -280

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have lost this much this fast, it would be hard to say that is just simply variance...I've never heard of anyone losing 50 buyins in one day.

[ur2god]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you lost $500 in one day at the 11s you might have cause for concern.

[/ QUOTE ]
i got pissed so i moved up to 20 sng, result after 24
games -280

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have lost this much this fast, it would be hard to say that is just simply variance...I've never heard of anyone losing 50 buyins in one day.

[/ QUOTE ]

well im not claiming to be the best in the world, I dont
think I suck though, im up 2.5k this month on 10 sng mainly
and was 20th on pp leaderboard.

also 280 is 14 buy ins at 22s

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you lost $500 in one day at the 11s you might have cause for concern.

[/ QUOTE ]
i got pissed so i moved up to 20 sng, result after 24
games -280

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have lost this much this fast, it would be hard to say that is just simply variance...I've never heard of anyone losing 50 buyins in one day.

[/ QUOTE ]

well im not claiming to be the best in the world, I dont
think I suck though, im up 2.5k this month on 10 sng mainly
and was 20th on pp leaderboard.

also 280 is 14 buy ins at 22s

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but 500 at the 10's is almost 50...

[Poolgod32]

Im using Adanthar's guide. The interesting thing is that I have deviated fomr the guide 4 times since the start of this section. All 4 times I went OOTM

Does everyone agree that the 22s are not seriously different enough to change this method of play? I mean is there really any defense to push fold poker?
I have not read Kill Phil yet but it sounds like it has much the same advice
I mean fancy plays at the 11s just doesnt make much sense to me. I was min raised by someone today on the button at the 10/15 level. I was in the BB with AKo. I raised all in and they called with 99. I mean can they really figure they are much of a favorite with that hand? This strategy seems somewhat idiot proof( good for me)
I have lost a few with it for sure. My other question is what sort of advice one should use when you have accumulated a big stack(doubled up early for example) and now have the ability to be a bully. Or should you just stick to the formula?

[ur2god]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you lost $500 in one day at the 11s you might have cause for concern.

[/ QUOTE ]
i got pissed so i moved up to 20 sng, result after 24
games -280

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have lost this much this fast, it would be hard to say that is just simply variance...I've never heard of anyone losing 50 buyins in one day.

[/ QUOTE ]

well im not claiming to be the best in the world, I dont
think I suck though, im up 2.5k this month on 10 sng mainly
and was 20th on pp leaderboard.

also 280 is 14 buy ins at 22s

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but 500 at the 10's is almost 50...

[/ QUOTE ]

okay whatever you say pro, you must be a professor in
mathematics!

[durron597]

Since 12/28/05 I am 62.5% ITM with 106.25% ROI over 32 SnGs. I guess that must be my true ROI.

Thread over, I'm locking it now.

Edit: these are Stars $60s, not the OP's $11s.

Edit2: Changed my mind moving this to BBV

[Poolgod32]

Sorry Durron. Didnt mean this one as a Brag post at all. Really wanted some good STT expert knowledge about this strategy and meaningful numbers. Yes I have read the FAQ

[LunchMeat523]

[ QUOTE ]
wow $500 in 1 day at the 11's. 50 buy ins is alot.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wish this would happen to me. gl