zomg I bluff

[Sir Winalot]

I have some history with UTG and he seems to be playing pretty abc TAG, but he sometimes does some weird things. About an orbit ago he lost around $40 to MP, he's not tilting hard but I have a feeling he's not playing his A-game right now.

50NL
Hero ($59)
BB ($39)
UTG ($21) villain
MP ($105)
CO ($25)
Button ($114)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls, BB calls

Calling here might be marginal, but I think he's stacking of lighter than usually and BB might come along too.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($6)
Hero checks, check, check

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($6)
Hero bets $3

I figure I should fold most overcards/4,6,7's/underpairs. I don't think there's any need to bet harder than this, 1/2-pot reps the 5 quite well imo because the flop was checked through.

Any thoughts about the play or betsize?

[Genz]

This is certainly a good spot. But I wouldn't try it again on the river if he calles. He might calling down with any pair because of tilt. You beat overcards though... I think bet size is ok but a little on the small side. I'd make it 4 or 4.5 probably to make sure he doesn't call with overs. A half pot might be tilt-called too easily.

[benlj21]

seems fine even though i would bet 4. check/fold river if he calls.

[ama0330]

He'll look you up if he's thinking, as its very unlikely that you have a 5 here in a raised pot. Given that this is 3 way its not the greatest spot but I dont hate it at all.

[Unknown Soldier]

nice play, maybe a bit more like 4, but w/e

[avfletch]

UTG pretty much has to have a rubbish Ax or overs here I think and I don't think BB will show up with enough of a hand to call here often enough to make this -EV.

I'd bet a bit more though. I can see a 9 being in their ranges and you don't want them calling on implied odds expecting to stack you if they hit their open ender.