Ok call w/ gutshot + FD?

[LOwrestling2001]

Shortstack villain is just playing retarded, going all in many flops very often and shows down some horrible hands, what to do here? I figure I have a gutshot + flush draw = 12 outs, and that more than likely I'll take his money if either one hits.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($13.05)
BB ($10.70)
UTG ($65)
MP ($62.20)
CO ($28.50)
Hero ($23.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $9.7 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero??

[apple11]

Why get it in 50/50 with villan if hes that terrible you can wait for a better spot if hes that bad.

[br.bm]

This is a math question.
You have 12 outs for your str8 and flush, maybe J's are good too. So lets say you have 13 outs
chance to hit on turn or river is:
0,26 + 0,26*(1,00-0,26) = 0,45 = 45%

you pay 42% of the pot. So you have a call.

But as apple11 said ... I'd wait for a better spot. Get Toppair or something like that, check and hope he pushes again.

[Bantam222]

[ QUOTE ]
Why get it in 50/50 with villan if hes that terrible you can wait for a better spot if hes that bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have odds to call, call. You can't pass up small edges to "get it later" How do you know you will get another chance to take his money before someone else does?

You have to win 43% of the time to make this profitable. Your 12 outs make you close to 50% fav, and your Jack could be live as well. You have to call this, you are passing up close to 6BB in ev by folding, assuming you are 50/50 to win.

[Phytopath]

Against a lone T you are a big favorite, call it.

If he is really bad and you lose this hand, you'll probably get it back a bit later.

[Smilin']

This doesn't necessarily mean you should fold, but I don't agree that this is just a math question. There's one type of hand that has you crushed: higher flush draws. The overbet does look suspiciously like a draw. OTOH, there are straight draws and worse flush draws too--if Villain calls preflop with those, then I'd be more inclined to call. And of course, if Villain regularly does this with air you should call because one pair will often be good.

[HUD-BOT]

[ QUOTE ]
but I don't agree that this is just a math question.

[/ QUOTE ]
Any hand where somebody is allin and there is no money left to bet and you have to call or fold, it is always just a math problem.

[Genz]

There is someone left to act behind you. HU I might call here. 3way, I tend to fold, because if SB calls or pushes behind me, I have to call for those 3 bucks, but I can be quite sure my draw isn't good.

I don`t know why so many players play their combo draws so weak in Micros ? SHOVE

If it is 3 ways your a favorite against

Jd8d (49 %)
QQ (40%)
AT (11%)

[Sir Winalot]

For simplicity I'm assuming SB will always fold:

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

435,600 games 0.016 secs 27,225,000 games/sec

Board: 4d Th 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.140% 57.04% 00.10% 248473 428.50 { Jd8d }
Hand 1: 42.860% 42.76% 00.10% 186270 428.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, K7s, K4s, QTs+, Q7s, Q4s, JTs, J7s, T9s, T7s, 97s+, 87s, 64s+, 54s, 43s, A2o+, KTo+, K7o, K4o, QTo+, Q7o, Q4o, JTo, T9o, 97o+, 87o, 65o, 54o }


---

407,880 games 0.047 secs 8,678,297 games/sec

[/ QUOTE ]

I put him on a range of any hand that paired him on the flop (with some preflop selection, eg T4o etc aren't there), whiffed overcards and any pocket pair and straight draws (I was too lazy to include diamond draws as I'd have to enter them one by one).

($12.7*0.57)-($9.7*0.43) = $7.25-$4.2 = <font color="green"> <u>$3.05</u> </font>

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
I don`t know why so many players play their combo draws so weak in Micros ? SHOVE

If it is 3 ways your a favorite against

Jd8d (49 %)
QQ (40%)
AT (11%)

[/ QUOTE ]
cleaner, I've seen you do these %-calcs quite often during the last week. I think you might find pokerstove useful as you can enter a whole range of hands to villain(s).

You can download it here: http://www.pokerstove.com/

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
For simplicity I'm assuming SB will always fold:


[/ QUOTE ]

And that's exactly where my problem is coming from. After all, OP's draw is far from the nuts and I have no idea about SB. HU this is an incredibly easy call. But I don't think you can just strike the 3rd player out of the equation.

[Sir Winalot]

I don't think SB will call here without a set. And when he does have a set:

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,235,449 games 0.140 secs 23,110,349 games/sec

Board: 4d Th 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.717% 32.61% 00.11% 1054956 3589.50 { Jd8d }
Hand 1: 04.427% 04.31% 00.12% 139383 3841.50 {retards range}
Hand 2: 62.856% 62.85% 00.01% 2033427 252.00 { TT, 77, 44 }


[/ QUOTE ]

[Genz]

So given that both opponents stack sizes are about the same, this makes a call about break even since we are getting 2:1. Factoring in the probability of having a set, a call is good here.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
So given that both opponents stack sizes are about the same, this makes a call about break even since we are getting 2:1. Factoring in the probability of having a set, a call is good here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think he'll have a set here at most 10% time (just a guess, but he certainly doesn't have it often).

($24.75*0.33)-($12.05*0.67) = $8.2-$8 = <font color="green"> <u>+$0.2</u> </font>

So we're breaking even if SB comes along with his set. Now, he will only have a set here (I'm using my guesstimate) 10%, and 90% we'll be HU against the retard.

This doesn't actually matter because we're +EV on both occasions, but here's the exact EV if we say he has a set 10% of the time:

($3.05*0.9)+($0.2*0.1) = $2.475+$0.02 = <font color="green"> <u>+$2.5</u> </font>

Edit: I mixed up the + and -, now it should be correct.

[Jouster777]

Still a 51% favorite over all TP or better hands + better FDs

range used: TT+,77,44,AdKd,AdQd,ATs,Ad9d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,K dQd,KTs,Kd9d,Kd6d,Kd5d,Kd3d,Kd2d,QTs,Qd9d,Qd6d,Qd5 d,Qd3d,Qd2d,T9s,Td6d,Td5d,Td3d,Tc2c,Td2d,6d5d,ATo, KTo,QTo,JTo,T2o+,74o

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So given that both opponents stack sizes are about the same, this makes a call about break even since we are getting 2:1. Factoring in the probability of having a set, a call is good here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think he'll have a set here at most 10% time (just a guess, but he certainly doesn't have it often).

($24.75*0.33)-($12.05*0.67) = $8.2-$8 = <font color="green"> <u>+$0.2</u> </font>

So we're breaking even if SB comes along with his set. Now, he will only have a set here (I'm using my guesstimate) 10%, and 90% we'll be HU against the retard.

This doesn't actually matter because we're +EV on both occasions, but here's the exact EV if we say he has a set 10% of the time:

($3.05*0.9)+($0.2*0.1) = $2.475+$0.02 = <font color="green"> <u>+$2.5</u> </font>

Edit: I mixed up the + and -, now it should be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, beside being the correct move I like to keep pressure on the other players at the table by being aggressive.