A simple call or fold... [50NL]

[thing85]

Villain is 15/2.56/0 over 39 hands. No other reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

SB ($9.65)
BB ($21.85)
UTG ($68.85)
Hero ($49.25)
Button ($43.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($8.75) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $12</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $39.05 (all-in)</font>, Hero...?

The flop c/r seemed okay to me. Given his stats and PF action, I figured him to almost certainly have JJ-AA. A set is unlikely unless he specifically has TT, but I don't think he reraises TT PF. I have my flush outs, 2 possible outs for another T, and possibly 3 K outs (unless he has KK).

Call or fold?

[barryc83]

Snapcall. C/r size is horrible. Make it like $18-20 IMO. Too much in the pot to fold this.

[sputum]

With that read it's an easy call. You're slightly less than 50-50 so the pot provides plenty of overlay.

[AceLuby]

Easiest call ever, TP2K + FD = all you can eat, you're only significantly behind a set.

[Roadstar]

Call.

As another poster stated, C/R bigger. The power of a combo draw is Fold Equity. You have higher FE if you make a serious check raise.

[Jouster777]

As OP notes...given stats and PF action he doesn't have a set here. He also doesn't have AT. The only other hand we are behind (barely) is KK.

He has JJ+ here almost all the time and we are ahead of that range even before considering all the money in the pot. Very easy call.

[brandysbich]

It's an easy call, even if I knew for a fact he has aces, I call all day here

[KurtSF]

As played call.

Does anyone b3b instead of c/r?

[Imrahil]

Why are we c/r in this hand? I don't think we have any FE. This nit has a hand and isn't folding. I just check call.

[AliasMrJones]

Villian is a nit and min-raised PF. While it's only a min-raise, we're almost certainly behind and possibly dominated. Given this and that we're out of position, I'm inclined to dump this PF.

[Hank Scorpio]

It doesn't matter that you have no FE here. IMO I'm putting villian on an overpair, with a small possibility of hitting a set of 10s. That gives us 15 outs, making us the favorite (56%). Why would you need FE at this point?

The purpose for pushing is to maximize our EV. If you push after the turn with a 3-flush board, will villian call? If you check the turn after you miss one of your 15 cards, will villian give you the odds to continue?

No. Push

[Imrahil]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

14,850 games 0.005 secs 2,970,000 games/sec

Board: 2s 4s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.465% 52.46% 00.00% 7791 0.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 47.535% 47.54% 00.00% 7059 0.00 { KsTs }


---

I know a push is fine and everything but just calling may be more +EV.

[Hank Scorpio]

Villian only has QQ, KK, AA, or TT.

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we c/r in this hand? I don't think we have any FE. This nit has a hand and isn't folding. I just check call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Agreed, but why not lead flop? A heck of a lot of villains will just call and let us price ourselves in. Plus, it disguises our hand really well and if we hit on turn, then c/r could get his stack in 1 fell swoop.

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are we c/r in this hand? I don't think we have any FE. This nit has a hand and isn't folding. I just check call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Agreed, but why not lead flop? A heck of a lot of villains will just call and let us price ourselves in. Plus, it disguises our hand really well and if we hit on turn, then c/r could get his stack in 1 fell swoop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line as well.

[restrikt]

Raise to 15-20, and snapcall the push.

We WANT to get it all in on this flop, so be happy he wants to as well.