$25NL 6max QQ Very Difficult Hand

[Speedlimits]

<font color="blue"> Villian #1 no stats, played less than 30 hands</font>

<font color="blue"> Villian #2 30/14/1.5 somewhat nitty</font>

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Seat 1: UTG+1 ($29.20)
Seat 2: Villian #2 is CO ($40.35)
Seat 3: Hero is Button ($31.30)
Seat 4: SB ($15.10)
Seat 5: BB ($46.80)
Seat 6: Villian #1 is UTG ($25)
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#cc0000">Villian #1 raises to $0.85</font>, UTG+1 folds, Villian #2 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4.2</font>, 2 folds, Villian #1 calls, Villian #2 calls.

<font color="blue"> pf seems standard, I raised about 5x the amount because of the overcall.</font>

Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($12.95, 3 players)
Villian #1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Villian #2 bets $9.95</font>, Hero?

[corsakh]

Shove. You have outs.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove. You have outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think this is a clear shove? I think it is pretty close considering Villian #1 is still left to act.

[corsakh]

Considering the pot size to the stacks, its a push or fold. I can't see a fold here /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Considering the pot size to the stacks, its a push or fold. I can't see a fold here /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you a winning player? If so what limits? What's your ptbb at those limits and over how many hands.

[corsakh]

Right at this moment I am an angry loosing player, 4 buyins down in this session.

8ptbb over 25k at micros.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Right at this moment I am an angry loosing player, 4 buyins down in this session.

8ptbb over 25k at micros.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice winrate. Oh and I did indeed shove, Villian #1 snap called and showed Q9 for the straight. Villian #2 called and showed J10 for top two pair. ouch.

I really contemplated folding the flop but felt the pot was too big and I was probably ahead of their range.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]

Are you a winning player? If so what limits? What's your ptbb at those limits and over how many hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Speedlimits, don't you think this is ridiculous? Because I do.

Anyway, the board is really draw heavy and there are worse made hands that will call a shove, so I'd probably shove here.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Are you a winning player? If so what limits? What's your ptbb at those limits and over how many hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Speedlimits, don't you think this is ridiculous? Because I do.

Anyway, the board is really draw heavy and there are worse made hands that will call a shove, so I'd probably shove here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really ridiculous, it actually does kind of matter. Yeah I think a shove is prob good too just wanted to double check.

[corsakh]

BTW, I am more inclined to fold AA on this board, than QQ just due to the fact that I have outs on all the hands that may be currently ahead of me.

[texnewb]

That really sucks, but I don't think you should feel too bad about it, given the hands they had.
You had one villain call $16.8% of his stack with Q9 when he was severely dominated, and another call 10% of his stack with JT when he was in big trouble. That they both got a miracle flop is just bad luck.

equity win
Hand 0: 78.913% 78.35% { QQ }
Hand 1: 08.634% 08.07% { Q9s, Q9o }
Hand 2: 12.453% 12.35% { JTs, JTo }
---------------

The only *slight* argument I could even consider that goes against you is that if villain is fairly nitty, his 3/4PS flop donk might make it a RIO situation if you read him as being solid enough to sniff an overpair (i.e., it will be a minority of times (profit for you) when he donks you with a hand worse than QQ but a majority of times (loss for you) when he does it with two pair or better.)
But, given the limits, the pot size and your apparent outs I know I'm busting along with you here.

[Sir Winalot]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, I am more inclined to fold AA on this board, than QQ just due to the fact that I have outs on all the hands that may be currently ahead of me.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you wan't to have AA because there are more hands you beat.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BTW, I am more inclined to fold AA on this board, than QQ just due to the fact that I have outs on all the hands that may be currently ahead of me.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you wan't to have AA because there are more hands you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not understand.

[BobAllinSki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Considering the pot size to the stacks, its a push or fold. I can't see a fold here /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you a winning player? If so what limits? What's your ptbb at those limits and over how many hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a little irrelevant, argue with somones play and advice on its merit alone, wether the player is some low limit fish or david sklansky himself.

As for the hand, yeah, shove, there was an open raise before any call then you raised it so villains hands 'should' be fairly well defined, there is a single gap in the draw heavy board meaning anyone who flopped a straight had to either open raise or cold call a raise, then call a re-raise with 79 or Q9, they had it in this hand but normaly these hands will fold so they are a reduced part of there range, the rest of there range is 2 pair (also reduced due to pre-flop action), trips, FD + overcards, overpairs, AJ - QJ, AK &amp; KQ, and of course a complete bluff, there are a lot more draw + overcad hands than trips which are your real worry given the pre-flop and there is just a pot sized raise left so push.

[betafemale]

I would fold, you can only beat ace high and a flushdraw. Save your money for a better spot. I highly suspect villian has JJ or KK here, maybe AA or AKs (flushdraw) but not too often.

[barryc83]

Wow, how can everyone like shoving here. What do you beat? AK/AQ/AJ. Thats it. You RR pf and this guy leads into you for 3/4 pot and you describe him as somewhat nitty. Let it go, this flop is terrible. You're SA/WB and given your description of the villain I'm guessing WB. And you dont know what Villain 1 is gonna do. I'm folding here.

[BobAllinSki]

There are loads of hands you beat, any 2 :spades: AJ-QJ, AK, AQ, KQ, KJ all lead on this flop, some even call your push, this is as draw heavy flop as you can imagine, and most hands that call with the preflop raises have the draw, not the made hand, only JJ &amp; TT and to a lesser degree 88 fit in with the preflop action that connect with the flop. The fact that the villains made calls with Q9 &amp; JT to hit there miracle suggests to me they would also pay you off with any draw or J so push.

[betafemale]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, how can everyone like shoving here. What do you beat? AK/AQ/AJ. Thats it. You RR pf and this guy leads into you for 3/4 pot and you describe him as somewhat nitty. Let it go, this flop is terrible. You're SA/WB and given your description of the villain I'm guessing WB. And you dont know what Villain 1 is gonna do. I'm folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. When someone you calles "somewhat nitty" raises preflop, then calls your reraise and then bets into you on the flop, you are not often ahead.

I see so many people post here "just push, if you lose it is variance"-type of posts. There is just no need to push that hard in marginal situations in uNL. Learning to fold in the right spots will make you more money, yes you will sometimes fold when you were "ahead" but in the long run you will make more money. Poker is not about winning pots, it is about making money.

[barryc83]

JT calls RR religiously bc they see people on TV with it and think its the nuts. I'm all for going broke with overpairs against unknowns, but on a flop like this a 1 pair hand is gonna be a coinflip or in bad shape. The description of the villain also should make you want to fold.

[EMc]

[ QUOTE ]
JT calls RR religiously bc they see people on TV with it and think its the nuts. I'm all for going broke with overpairs against unknowns, but on a flop like this a 1 pair hand is gonna be a coinflip or in bad shape. The description of the villain also should make you want to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

JT can make 2, count them 2, nut straights. Its better than AA. Fish!

[betafemale]

[ QUOTE ]
JT can make 2, count them 2, nut straights.

[/ QUOTE ]

For someone with as many posts as you you should know better.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
That really sucks, but I don't think you should feel too bad about it, given the hands they had.
You had one villain call $16.8% of his stack with Q9 when he was severely dominated, and another call 10% of his stack with JT when he was in big trouble. That they both got a miracle flop is just bad luck.

equity win
Hand 0: 78.913% 78.35% { QQ }
Hand 1: 08.634% 08.07% { Q9s, Q9o }
Hand 2: 12.453% 12.35% { JTs, JTo }
---------------

The only *slight* argument I could even consider that goes against you is that if villain is fairly nitty, his 3/4PS flop donk might make it a RIO situation if you read him as being solid enough to sniff an overpair (i.e., it will be a minority of times (profit for you) when he donks you with a hand worse than QQ but a majority of times (loss for you) when he does it with two pair or better.)
But, given the limits, the pot size and your apparent outs I know I'm busting along with you here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know I would of folded this flop if I wasn't tilted. I really thought about it hard, pushing = B game. Folding = A game.

Also yeah I had one hand dominated, and the other hand had 2 undercards so there pf call was beyond bad.

[corsakh]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.213% 47.95% 02.27% 27003738 1276546.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 36.923% 34.91% 02.01% 19660452 1134538.50 { QQ-88, AsKs, AJs, KJs, Ks9s, QJs, Q9s, JTs, J8s, T8s, 9s8s, 97s, 7s6s, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 2: 12.864% 11.90% 00.96% 6701688 543147.50 { random }

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
pushing = B game. Folding = A game.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have it really mixed up /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[betafemale]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.213% 47.95% 02.27% 27003738 1276546.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 36.923% 34.91% 02.01% 19660452 1134538.50 { QQ-88, AsKs, AJs, KJs, Ks9s, QJs, Q9s, JTs, J8s, T8s, 9s8s, 97s, 7s6s, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 2: 12.864% 11.90% 00.96% 6701688 543147.50 { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

Very flawed thinking. Too big range for the nitty person, and the other villian does not have a random hand.

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JT calls RR religiously bc they see people on TV with it and think its the nuts. I'm all for going broke with overpairs against unknowns, but on a flop like this a 1 pair hand is gonna be a coinflip or in bad shape. The description of the villain also should make you want to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

JT can make 2, count them 2, nut straights. Its better than AA. Fish!

[/ QUOTE ]

Around Feb/March of last year I was living in New Orleans and I would play 2/5 NL live at Harrahs a lot. This was before I found 2p2 and I def sucked more than I do now (even though I still suck). I would win at this game by being a total nit, but I really was not a good player.

Anyways, I'm sitting in a game and this young black kid is next to me who raises. Then an old man (huge [censored] nit) goes AI for a huge overbet (he has AA/KK here always, more likely AA too; I would fold KK pf to this guy). This kid turns to me and says, "well, JTs is 45% to win against AA so pot odds say I gotta call." Even funnier is the fact that I had to search on the internet to figure out if this kid was right or not.

[corsakh]

How is 30/14/1.5 nitty all of a sudden? I understand that the OP has not made up his mind, but the villain is either nitty or 30/14/1.5. He can't be both. If you think some hands are too wide for a 30/14, please explain.

With the second guy I simply did not bother as there are no reads / action from him.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JT calls RR religiously bc they see people on TV with it and think its the nuts. I'm all for going broke with overpairs against unknowns, but on a flop like this a 1 pair hand is gonna be a coinflip or in bad shape. The description of the villain also should make you want to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


JT can make 2, count them 2, nut straights. Its better than AA. Fish!

[/ QUOTE ]

JT can only make nut str8s. AKQJT, KQJT9, QJT98, JT987. That`s 4 and all are nuts.

[Speedlimits]

To the people saying fold (which I have come to agree with), QQ and AA are essentially the same hand here right? I

[barryc83]

IMO yes.

[betafemale]

[ QUOTE ]
To the people saying fold (which I have come to agree with), QQ and AA are essentially the same hand here right? I

[/ QUOTE ]

AA can beat KK also, which is important. But since you are against two people in a reraised pot and one of them is nittish and the flop is bad I would fold AA also in this case. Pushing with AA would not be as big of mistake as with QQ though, but still a fold for me.

[nutsboy]

just a question, why is just calling the flop bet and wait for the action of the other villain out of the question? Because that's what I'll do in this situation. If he re-raised after me and see a call, I know i'm beat for sure. Why risk all of your stack on suck a draw heavy board with that kind of action?

[Hank Scorpio]

If this is HU, I'm probably pushing the flop just because I can't see how villian would bet into me with a made hand here when I showed so much strength PF. I'm putting him on a draw 99% of the time...

Now, it turns out I was wrong in this case. Not only about the first guy who flops a straight, but more importantly about villian who bets the flop.

This is an entirely read dependant situation and don't think there is anything wrong with folding or pushing if this was HU. Because of the 3 way action, though, I'm probably folding.

[corsakh]

[ QUOTE ]
To the people saying fold (which I have come to agree with), QQ and AA are essentially the same hand here right? I

[/ QUOTE ]

No. QQ is better. If fact calling with an overpair on this board is tough. If you are wrong you are drawing dead/two outs with Aces. With QQ you have more margin for error, 4 extra outs and the fact that your opponent is far less likely to have straight on the top end... there is even folding equity if he is a nit /images/graemlins/smile.gif