$50NL - Set of 3s no flush

[AliasMrJones]

Villain was 39/24/1.5 over 40 hands. What's the plan?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($28.25)
Button ($21.40)
AliasMrJones ($69.20)
BB ($172.65)
UTG ($151.35)

Preflop: AliasMrJones is SB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP posts a blind of $0.75.
UTG calls $0.50, MP (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">AliasMrJones raises to $2</font>, BB calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.50, MP calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8.25) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">AliasMrJones bets $6.5</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $6.50.

Turn: ($21.25) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
AliasMrJones ???

[homanga]

check/call if reasonable. Always could win with the set or fill up on river.

[Jouster777]

I like a C/C here...someone with the non-nut flush thinks he's WA/WB and the nut flush thinks he's safe so won't go nuts with a VB.

Big bets after a check here are often bluffs - do people call anything here with worse than implied odds for filling up?

[Rollos]

I check/call anything less than $10.

[TheSalche]

man i hate this spot, but i gotta say c/c here, mostly because villains at these levels will pay off the riverboat here

[Sir Winalot]

Check, he's not calling with many worse hands on a 4-flush board. If he bets look what odds you get. If he bets I would assume he stacks off close to 100% on the river so I count his whole stack as implied odds.

[Sweir]

You will probably stack him on the river so the effective pot size is $41. You have 10 outs to a full/quads with 46 cards left so you are getting 3.6-1 odds. Therefore you can profitably call just over an $11 bet.

When you take into account that he may not have a club and try to bluff the turn and then check the river when called, and that sometimes you will not stack him I think $11 is a reasonable estimate.

[Reflex500]

I would c/c too in that situation...

But in my opinion, your PFR is too small. I would've raised to $3-$3.5. There're already 2 players + BB in the pot...

[AliasMrJones]

Let me throw out an alternative strategy. I don't know that this has any merit, but what the heck, this place is for discussion...

In the limit forums there is a strategy called "The Clarkmeister Principle." It goes like this...you're on the river, a 4-flush is on the board and you have a good hand, but none of the flush suit, you should always bet. Hands without the flush suit will fold, but would check behind anyway if you check. Hands with a small card in the flush suit may fold so you will win against some hands that would check behind and then win the pot if villain holds the A or K in the flush suit will likely raise and you can then fold to the raise.

Applying that thinking here. What about bet/fold turn? Anyone without a club will fold, but you're very unlikely to get any more money out of them anyway. Someone with a small club may fold and you'll win the pot where you'd lose if it goes check/check. If raised, you can be sure he's got the flush and probably nut flush.

(Side-note...this is the turn and not the river so there may be other factors at play here like the possibility you'll improve to a boat on the river. Even if it doesn't apply here, what about the merits of using the Clarkmeister Principle from limit in NL on the river?)

[Sir Winalot]

I still like c/c on the turn because we have reasonable odds to fill up and stack him. If it goes checkity-check on the turn I think we could apply the "clarkmeister" on the river. I think I have to test this clarkmeister thing, it sound like an ok play against the right opponents.

[thedustbustr]

you need to be really careful with your implied odds here. if he doesn't have the nut flush, i doubt he pays off pot when the board pairs.