NL50 6max heaps of outs on flop

[bazooka87]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($59.60)
BB ($76.25)
UTG ($48)
Hero ($22.20)
CO ($19.55)
Button ($99.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $2, CO calls $2.

Flop: ($8) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>.

so i have two straight possibilities, flush draw and inside straight flush draw

villain is tightish, i put him on queens when i was playing the hand
i don't want to fold, but what's the correct action?
cold call and see a turn?
raise?
or shove?

[bazooka87]

oh and i'm having trouble posting converted hands (obviously)
can anyone help in that regards?
EDIT: ok fixed

[thac]

I straight-up shove and pray for a call, but secretly wouldn't mind them folding (I haven't hit combo draws in ages)

[Jouster777]

If he has QQ why is he underbetting such a coordingated flop? I put in a psb here to fold out other FD's and weaksauce cbets. If he has QQ you are happy to get it in on the flop (or check behind turn if he calls). If you do hit your hand then the flop bet also adds some deception to what would o/w be an obvious catch.

Edit: missed hero's stack size. I agree with Thac...just shove on flop...and either play a real short stack or buy in full.

[betafemale]

[ QUOTE ]
I straight-up shove and pray for a call, but secretly wouldn't mind them folding (I haven't hit combo draws in ages)

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets say OP is right and villian has QQ, why would you want a call if you push? You are only 55/45 against QQ and then the rake will take out some, making the push very marginal if he calls and has alot of variace. If you push here it is to win the pot as it is right now hoping he just has overs, since very few people at this level will fold QQ here.

[JadeRedstone]

you're only behind a set - push now. You are ahead of Q's.
Problems with calling, if the turn is a brick you're going to be behind and will have to fold to any bet. So better get the money in when you are ahead.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I straight-up shove and pray for a call, but secretly wouldn't mind them folding (I haven't hit combo draws in ages)

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets say OP is right and villian has QQ, why would you want a call if you push? You are only 55/45 against QQ and then the rake will take out some, making the push very marginal if he calls and has alot of variace. If you push here it is to win the pot as it is right now hoping he just has overs, since very few people at this level will fold QQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're actually a 60/40 here (15 outs x 4 [the 4/2 rule]). Also, we're not counting runner-runner trips or two pair to win. That has to add 1-2% I think /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I don't mind a call, because then I get to show down that I shoved a big draw, so the next time when I have a set here I can play the same way.

Btw - I actually thought this was nl25 when I looked at Hero's stack size. WTF Hero, buy in full so you can win $100 when you hit your draw. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Unknown Soldier]

yeah, it is more profitable if villain folds obviously, but it's fine if he calls. OP, why are you paying with 50bbs?

[betafemale]

[ QUOTE ]
You're actually a 60/40 here (15 outs x 4 [the 4/2 rule]). Also, we're not counting runner-runner trips or two pair to win. That has to add 1-2% I think /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 7s 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s 548 55.35 433 43.74 9 0.91 0.558
Qc Qd 433 43.74 548 55.35 9 0.91 0.442

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're actually a 60/40 here (15 outs x 4 [the 4/2 rule]). Also, we're not counting runner-runner trips or two pair to win. That has to add 1-2% I think /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 7s 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s 548 55.35 433 43.74 9 0.91 0.558
Qc Qd 433 43.74 548 55.35 9 0.91 0.442

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah I was going by rough estimate. Never really take the time to actually plug hands into PokerStove. Still though, playing a shortstack especially, we wanna push our small edges just because of the fact that our stack size is the perfect size to shove and have fold equity.

[betafemale]

[ QUOTE ]
You are ahead of Q's.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is NOT "ahead" here. QQ is still the best hand, however hero is a small favorite.

[bazooka87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I straight-up shove and pray for a call, but secretly wouldn't mind them folding (I haven't hit combo draws in ages)

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets say OP is right and villian has QQ, why would you want a call if you push? You are only 55/45 against QQ and then the rake will take out some, making the push very marginal if he calls and has alot of variace. If you push here it is to win the pot as it is right now hoping he just has overs, since very few people at this level will fold QQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're actually a 60/40 here (15 outs x 4 [the 4/2 rule]). Also, we're not counting runner-runner trips or two pair to win. That has to add 1-2% I think /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I don't mind a call, because then I get to show down that I shoved a big draw, so the next time when I have a set here I can play the same way.

Btw - I actually thought this was nl25 when I looked at Hero's stack size. WTF Hero, buy in full so you can win $100 when you hit your draw. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah i know i should always buy in full, but i was just running [censored] at sit n goes and wanted to dabble in a few cash games, just loaded some up not really caring about what i should/shouldn't be doing

anyway, i ended up raising to $11, which was over half of my remaining stack and he shoved, i instacalled
hit my straight on the river and he mucked kings

[eigenvalue]

Most times I insta-shove here. This maximizes my fold equity (given your read that he is tight and not some kind of a calling station) and if he calls, I'm a slight favorite to win the hand.

[kazana]

I agree completely with beta here.
A fold is what you should hope for and winning ~ $13 uncontested.

Of course hero shouldn't mind a call, but there are a few hands that will call here against which we are roughly 55/45 and few against which we are in worse shape (higher fdraws, sets).

I'd rather win those $13 100% of the time than $23 55% (or less) of the time and introduce lots of variance.

thac's point about having more equity when you shove a set here does make a lot of sense, though.
But since I don't flop sets anymore, I'll still take the fold. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[PokerSparky]

Is the call of the raise preflop standard?

I think this is a pretty easy shove given OP's stack size on the flop.

[Hank Scorpio]

This seems kind of stupid. I would definetely raise this, but a shove is weak since against anyone with half a brain would realize you're only shoving with big draws.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems kind of stupid. I would definetely raise this, but a shove is weak since against anyone with half a brain would realize you're only shoving with big draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

With Hero's 50 bb stack, he can't really do anything but shove though can he?

[PokerSparky]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone with half a brain would realize you're only shoving with big draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you may be giving players at this level too much credit.

[BukNaked36]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This seems kind of stupid. I would definetely raise this, but a shove is weak since against anyone with half a brain would realize you're only shoving with big draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

With Hero's 50 bb stack, he can't really do anything but shove though can he?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Hero is too short here. No room for moves, just push. Villian only has to call $14 more with $17 pot.