Turned the nuts, how to proceed?

[TheSalche]

Villain is 14/7/1.33 over 40 hands. Seems nittish, and he's been folding to my flop cbets usually. Is my flop call okay if I fold UI on the turn? Should I c/c turn, c/r AI, c/c and then push the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($48)
SB ($19.75)
BB ($113.95)
Hero ($56.65)
MP ($145.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $2, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($6.50) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $12</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($30.50) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ...

[KurtSF]

Bet, hope he raises you again. About $18 should do it.

[JNuey]

I lean more towards a bet since there is a good chance he'll check behind on turn(could be raising w/a wide variety of hands even though he is super tight). Betting $15-20 here is ok. I also think a c/r AI here is ok if you're pretty sure he'll bet here.

[Bowlboy]

I'd be tempted to bet out for something a lil closer to a PSB here. A heart might kill your action on the river and villain has shown strength here. Your hand isnt exactly obvious either. He might put you on a spade draw, or a pair-2pair. If he'll call $18 here I think he calls $25.
Maximize your value.

[Marshall28]

18 sounds good to me. no need trying to scare anybody away w/ a PSB. your hand is somewhat concealed, and he looks to have a pretty strong one. FIRE AWAY! and call all in.

[CaptUnlucky]

Do you think he may raise if you bet smaller? Otherwise I agree with a large bet here. Put tons of pressure on him.

[Hank Scorpio]

overbet the pot. your draw is hidden

[thing85]

Am I the only one who doesn't like the flop call? Maybe I'm weak, but I fold to that raise on the flop. Please correct me though if a fold there is bad.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who doesn't like the flop call? Maybe I'm weak, but I fold to that raise on the flop. Please correct me though if a fold there is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's weak

[holyfield5]

you are getting good odds on flop call +implied odds of hitting the non obvious draw and maybe even bluff the scarecard possibility vs some opponents.

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who doesn't like the flop call? Maybe I'm weak, but I fold to that raise on the flop. Please correct me though if a fold there is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are getting 22 to 8, or slightly less than 3 to 1 to call. You are about 6 to 1 to make your straight, it's pretty easy to make up the difference if you hit.

[texnewb]

Given that he's nittish people think leading into him is best? Would he really raise Hero's flop bet with AT? I'm wondering if he mightn't have a big hand, maybe TT/88. No-one likes a c/r AI?

[br.bm]

nah, maybe he is playing for a freecard w/ spades
If not he's got a good hand and we definatly want to b3b all in here

[EMc]

Im thinking I like a c/rai here. Metagame and value.

[carnivalhobo]

pretty clear check raise here IMO

[T-Bone98]

I don't like a c/r here. In case he has a FD u are giving him a free card. I'd bet 18-22.

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a c/r here. In case he has a FD u are giving him a free card. I'd bet 18-22.

[/ QUOTE ]

a villain with 1.3 post flop AF almost never has a FD here

[thedustbustr]

checkraise? no way. bet almost the pot, any strong hand is pushing before a flush comes. then something like tpnk will force itself to call because theres so many suited cards on the board that the only thought in his mind is that you have a flush draw.

[barryc83]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a c/r here. In case he has a FD u are giving him a free card. I'd bet 18-22.

[/ QUOTE ]

a villain with 1.3 post flop AF almost never has a FD here

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a 40 hand sample, you cant make a statement about AF with a sample that small. I'd lead for 2/3 pot here. I think he's checking behind too much for the CRAI.

[maccamack]

I like the c/r line, either that or I go for rope a dope ($10).

[Sweir]

c/r AI seems good here unless you feel he will raise you if you put in a small bet. I think it is unlikely this villian has a FD here so i dont mind checking and risking giving a free card.

[Tiki]

There is an almost 50% chance of there being a three flush after the river card. By risking a free card now you risk villain either out-drawing you OR closing down. Lead the turn for $18/20.

[AceLuby]

Bet $20, and it's not really that close. We're ahead now and are suseptible to redraws. We need to try to get more $$$ in the pot and the best way to do that is bet. If we check and he checks behind and a spade falls we are either beat or aren't getting any more action. Bet now while we still can.

[Check_The_Nuts]

I was thinking bet 20 because he would just put you on bluffing a big draw and push, but I really like check raising more here. I didn't like it until carn pointed out his AF, and the fact he would almost never have a FD, and even if he does would be very unlikely to not bet here.

His %bet on the turn would really play into it for me tho. If he's not one to bet the turn very often then I may very well bet...and I like $20, PSB looks too much like you caught huge on the turn.

Flop sucks btw.

PS check calling turn sucks.