17 OOTM - Losing faith in my Game

[godplaysdice]

Ok, I'm small stakes 11+1 player, and I usually do well for myself (15% ROI over a about a thousand tourneys).

I recently hit 17 out of the money streak, and its really breaking the bank.

I've had these bad streaks WAAAY to much. My previous record is 10 OOTM and I don't play more than 2 hours a day on average.

My friends watch my beats, and its a joke by now.

I've had 66 on a A 5 K flop lose to AK (he turns a higher full house)

I've had KK lose 3 times in a row, AA lost 4 times in a row. (When called, this doesn't count the fact that when I have those hands and they almsot always just take the blinds).

I don't know what to do, I know I'm playing my A game. But this is out of hand. I watch all my friend's hands and his flushes and straights and top pair hold. My hands always lose by the river.

I'm starting to think this is a big joke. I know that I'm experiencing varience, but my ITM % is around 42%. This means that a 17 OOTM streak should occur 0.0095% of the time. This is gut wrenching.

Can anyone out there help me? I have hand histories and hand histories of all these bad beats, and I really need someone to tell me if there something wrong with my game.

17 times out of the money at the 11 dollar level will make anyone doubt their ability.

This post isn't just to whine, I really need someone to look at my hand histories. I need someone to tell me if this kind of streak has caused me to spring a huge leak in my game or if its just varience. I'll post them on this thread if thats convienient.

[zabt]

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Ok, I'm small stakes 11+1 player, and I usually do well for myself (15% ROI over a about a thousand tourneys).

I recently hit 17 out of the money streak, and its really breaking the bank.

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Then the bank isn't funded properly.
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I'm starting to think this is a big joke. I know that I'm experiencing varience, but my ITM % is around 42%. This means that a 17 OOTM streak should occur 0.0095% of the time. This is gut wrenching.

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That's the probability of being OOTM in your next 17 SNGs. But, that's not the same as the likelihood of experiencing at least one streak of 17 OOTM over a 1000 SNG sample.
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if its just varience

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I'm willing to bet it's not "varience".

[ALReturnsLOL]

I will take a look at your HH and try and help you out by offering any advice I can. Just send me a private message.

[pr0crast]

Take a few days off and come back refreshed. [censored] happens, as can be seen by my December graph.

http://img503.imageshack.us/my.php?image=profitgraph4aw.png

You are clearly a winning player, and you will bounce back. If if will help, pm me and I'll look at 2-3 of your OOTM HHs.

[anacrime]

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I'm willing to bet it's not "varience".

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Haha, I was thinking of a crack when I read the OP. This is probably better than I could do.

[pr0crast]

It's most likely a mix of variance and inadvertent subconscious tilt. No need to make cracks at him.

[Snarf]

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I'm willing to bet it's not "varience".

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Haha, I was thinking of a crack when I read the OP. This is probably better than I could do.

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WOW - you need to do better. Flame school 101 or something...

[Gramps]

My irony detector is blowing up right now, given your name and the contents of your post...sorry to take pleasure in one's obvious pain.

Embrace your uncertainty, young Einstein.

[rvg72]

17 OOTM is tough but just take a little break and go at it again.

I only play about 60-90 minutes a night but still had a streaky December hitting 55% ITM over about 100 SNG's followed by 11 OOTM followed by another stretch of 60% ITM over 30 and then 13 OOTM. By the end of the month I was in the mid to high 30's like I would expect.

Download my ROI Simulator

ROI Simulator Thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=3218857&page=)
Download (http://starvs.net/roisimulator.zip)

You can plug in your numbers and see how likely these types of stretches are over given sample sizes. A 42% ITM player for example has about a 1 in 25 chance to suffer 17+ OOTM over a 1000 hand sample size.

rvg

[Uppercut]

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I've had 66 on a A 5 K flop lose to AK (he turns a higher full house)

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I think I found your problem. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[godplaysdice]

Sorry, that was a typo. It was 66 on a A 6 K board, but thats not what matters anyway, that was just an example.

Some good advice here, I will go round up some of my hand histories.

[jmillerdls]

You are being silly. If you kow you are playing your A game, then what are you worried about? You have proven to yourself you are a winning player over thousands of SNGs. Also, 17 OOTM isn't that crazy.
Early December I was killing the 11's. My ROI was over 35% so I moved up to the 20's. I played 20 tournies that day and ended with 3 3rd places. 3!!! So, I moved back down, and made up all but $7 the next day at the 10's. Which, if you weren't counting, was twice as good a day, as the first day was bad. These things happen. If after 250 more SNGs you are still losing...then it's time to get worried.

[ur2god]

u gotta stop for the day and reset tommorow

[Pasterbator]

I'm in a far worse OOTM streak at the $33s. It sucks. Its unavoidable. I'm sure i've inadvertantly tilted away a few buyins here and there fearing monsters under the closet (and missing +EV pushes.)

Read this. Irie saved my life (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1765434&page=&view=&s b=5&o=)

It will likely give you a different view of things.
Oh, and time some time off.

Jason

[45suited]

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I've had KK lose 3 times in a row, AA lost 4 times in a row.

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Keep in mind that this does not necessarily mean that you didn't misplay any of these hands.

IMO, an OOTM streak of 17 at the 11s most likely means that it's not just variance.

PM me, I'll give you my email address. If you'd like, I'll take a look at 3 HHs. GL

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Sorry, that was a typo. It was 66 on a A 6 K board, but thats not what matters anyway, that was just an example.

Some good advice here, I will go round up some of my hand histories.

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Is a 4-outter with two cards to come really your worst beat? Jeez, you musta been like.. 5:1 to take down that pot.

For real though, some of the best players on this forum have experienced far worse runs than this (granted they're not at the 11s, but still). More importantly than losing faith in your game is to continue to analyze your play. Post some hands instead of rants. You will get much more value out of this.

[notmyusername]

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Sorry, that was a typo. It was 66 on a A 6 K board, but thats not what matters anyway, that was just an example.

Some good advice here, I will go round up some of my hand histories.

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Is a 6-outter with two cards to come really your worst beat? Jeez, you musta been like.. 3:1 to take down that pot.

For real though, some of the best players on this forum have experienced far worse runs than this (granted they're not at the 11s, but still). More importantly than losing faith in your game is to continue to analyze your play. Post some hands instead of rants. You will get much more value out of this.

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The guy with AK had 4 outs, not 6, so he was a 5 to 1 favorite with 2 cards to come. If you're going to be snide, get your facts straight.

[pr0crast]

LOL, classic how he edited the post already

[AA Suited]

godsplaydice,

if you're a winning player, then dont sweat it. there have been lots of players here with bigger than 17 OTM, or down more than 30 buyins, or have 1000 snG breakeven streak.

search the forum for their posts.

here's mine on 649 game breakeven streak at $50+5: LINK (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=2683985&page=&view =&sb=5&o=&fpart=)

[Poolgod32]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...rue#Post1825403 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=18 25403&Searchpage=5&Main=1825403&Words=Gigabet&topi c=&Search=true#Post1825403)

Cant go wrong with these words of wisdom