50NL: AKo in 3bet pot, turns K OOP against tighty

[kerplunkNL]

Stats villain 21/13/2.7. Haven't seen him gone out of line. Haven't tangled with him yet, at least not noteworthy. Seems solid.

I have raised quite a few amount preflop, especially OTB. I have 3bet a few times, can't recall if I showed down a hand that I 3bet, but I haven't done it with crap.


Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($114.95)
Button ($50)
SB ($26.65)
Hero ($55.70)
UTG ($83.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5.5</font>, UTG calls $3.75.

Flop: ($11.25) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7.5</font>, UTG calls $7.50.

<font color="blue"> Standard. </font>

Turn: ($26.25) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $15</font>, Hero calls $15.

<font color="blue"> Can't see him calling a bet on this turn with anything I beat. So I check/called this. Should I have crAI here? If so, what is the purpose of that?</font>

River: ($56.25) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $55.65 (All-In)</font>, Hero ...

<font color="blue"> Hmm... (have like $25 left)</font>

[Unknown Soldier]

I like your line for the reasons you gave. I think the river is a fold. balgue theorem, all that stuff. Rarely a bluff when villain puts his entire stack in like that. Reads could convice otherwise though..

[Imrahil]

I think at best you're probably splitting with AKs. I'd fold even getting such great odds.

[barryc83]

I'd raise more pf honestly. Cbet is standard. Then you hit your card and I don't mind a check. I'm never thinking about folding this hand though (maybe a leak of mine) once this card hits. If I think he'll call off his stack with a pp after that card hits then I just CRAI on the turn. I don't mind calling turn and lead pushing the river as it sometimes confuses opponents and makes it look like youre bluffing. Your line is good against very aggro opponents but I want my whole stack in so I'd push river. If you really thought this guy was that tight under the gun, why 3bet him OOP? The only hand I'm worried about here is AA.

[eviljeff]

first question: how many hands do you have on villain?

this hand is entirely opponent dependent. at higher stakes vs a non-nit reg who's going to be floating you a ton this turn is pretty much always a bet/all-in or crai.

here vs a guy you don't have a lot of history with who might be nittish and probably isn't floating, your line is good as long as you fold the river.

[BoozeHound]

If you take this line I think you have to CALL the river. What do you put him on, exactly a 4 or a set? He almost never has aces here.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
He almost never has aces here.

[/ QUOTE ]

no

[br.bm]

" He almost never has aces here."
lol, why not?

I'd like to bet the turn and fold to a raise or c/f on the river.
The turn check really brings us in trouble. He is either stealing or has aces now. With a turn bet we would have folded his air/JJ/QQ.

[barryc83]

So we're conceding that this guy is never bluffing (or he may think he's value betting) a worse hand like QQ/JJ? I just feel like we underrepped our hand a lot here. I guess the opponents stats dictate a fold. What if the Ac hits the turn? I'd assume we're never getting away if this happens right?

[Hank Scorpio]

I'm calling.

For the people saying fold, what do you think villian has? He probably doesn't have a set since he would have raised the flop since an overpair for hero is very likely.

I'm putting him on some kind of missed draw and calling.

[BoozeHound]

1. we have one of the aces.
2. he only called pf against a player who has been 3-betting with some frequency.
3- call on the flop on coordinated board
4. betting the turn for only half the pot after a sudden check call after a c-bet on the flop

[Leviathan101]

I think it's really close. I feel there is a decent chance he has KK, AA, AKs. I dunno if he QQ or JJ bets the river. I think this is pretty opponent dependant. I would probably C/R turn AI, as he could have TT+ there.
As played... I think I call.

[Hank Scorpio]

I'm willing to bet villian doesn't have aces.

[ajmargarine]

River is a call. You've really underrepped your hand. I'm torn as to whether the rest of the hand is played well or not. When you choose to 3b a hand preflop, you usually have to be happy to felt TPTK/overpair on innocuous boards.

[kerplunkNL]

The villain seemed solid and capable of thinking on the 2nd level ("what does my opponent have?").

Maybe I am overestimating villain's capabilities but how can he valuebet with 99-QQ here? With what kind of hands do I call a riverbet with that beats 99-QQ? And I don't see him bluffing.


Maybe off-topic: what kind of reads would warrant a rivercall or a riverfold?

[Hank Scorpio]

I think it is quite possible he had a similar hand with a draw after the flop and paired the king also. In fact, if I had to bet that's the hand I'd put him on. I also know that if I had a draw throughout that hand I would probably bet AI on the river too after the weakness you showed.

As for 2nd level thinking, I think that most people are capable of that. I'm not sure how anyone could play more than 100 hands without trying to think in terms of what their opponent has.

[IsaacAsimov]

If villain is your normal solid tag I wouldn't necessarily think he has a set, since I think he would fast play the flop with so many draws on the board, so it maybe looks like he is pushing a combo draw like AKc so you would be more inclined to call with overpairs.
To be honest, if this guy is playing straightforward I think I would have to pinpoint him on AK, since he called the flop AsKs. This could be AA, but I think a straightforward player would raise the flop because of the draws, cards that could kill the action, put villain in a tough spot.
Since your image is aggressive this could however be a set, AA and AKS. Think he would have 4bet AA pf though.
I think you are splitting on the river at best and thus folding would be the move with the highest EV. I can't see a weaker hand playing like that. Could be AQs trying a desperation bluff.

[kerplunkNL]

I called river because I underrepped my hand. He showed 22 and MHING. I was pretty surprised to see the ducks here. Not to be result oriented, but I still don't see a hand I beat that would push river.

Thank you all for the comments.

[Genz]

Hands that you beat that push here: busted flush draws that tried to semi-bluff you on the turn.