NL50 77 UTG. Flopped an overpair.

[reecelights]

Villain is 45/19/1.3 over 50 hands. Nothing overly notable other than PT stats at time of hand.

UB NL$50 (6 Max)

Button ($134.60)
SB ($55.75)
BB ($50)
Hero is UTG ($98.40)
MP ($48.35)
CO ($73.30)

SB posts $.25.
BB posts $.50.

Hero: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif


Pre-flop:

Hero raises to $1.75. MP folds. CO calls. Button folds. SB folds. BB calls.

Flop 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets $4. Hero ? <font color="red"> </font>

[RobTheDuck]

I make it $12 and see what BB does. If he reraises, I'm folding. If he calls, I see how scary the turn card is, and see what he does with it.

Reevaluate after turn.

[Hank Scorpio]

RIO. Fold

[RobTheDuck]

RIO?

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
RIO?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reverse Implied Odds: You can win a small pot or lose a big one.

I don't like raising the flop here to $12 because you turn your hand into a bluff. I would call 50% and see if villain donks into me on the turn as well, other 50% I'd fold. You don't really beat anything except A6. (Overcards and a flush draw are a coinflip)

[erbbysam]

definitly a perfect RIO situation unless you had some read along the lines that he overplayed AK. You only stand to win a small amount of money if he has AK and backs off or lose alot if you call him down and he turns over a set/overpair.

[RobTheDuck]

Thanks thac, erbbysam, and reecelights (via IM) for helping me finally understand this concept.

I've read NLTAP and another book or two that talks about Reverse Implied Odds, but could never quite wrap my brain around it. This is a great example/discussion of the topic. Thanks again,

Rob

[Poker monkey]

I think there's a good chance he bets like this on a draw. If he has a really big hand like a set, he'd check-raise you. Still, with a big draw (e.g. 2 heart overcards), you're not much of a favourite if at all, so I definitely wouldn't raise here - and you don't want to be playing a big pot with this hand anyway.

It's possible he has you beat with 88-TT. It's also possible he guesses that most of the time this flop will have missed your high cards, and he's just trying to take it away from you. Or he could just have caught a pair on the flop and wants to protect it.

So... call it one time. Fold it to another large bet on the Turn.