$25 Full Tilt 6max - set ugly board

[kurto]

From memory -
Villain and I both have full stacks.

Villain is one to my right. He's running about 22/10 pf.

1 limper. Villain opens to $1. I call on the button with 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Flop K /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checks all around.

Turn 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checks around to me. I pot it. early position player folds. Villain calls.

River J /images/graemlins/club.gif

Villain checks to me. I bet 3/4 pot. Villain checkraises pot. Hero?

[jonyy6788]

I'm arrrr-in, if he gots it he gots it

[RAHZero]

I fail to see how this is an ugly board. There's only one straight possible (is he capable of raising 45s PF?), and no flush possible. The only other thing that beats you is a higher set. This looks a lot like KJ or some random bluff or even a poorly played AK a lot more than a bigger set. Pretty standard push here.

[2mb]

That J didn't complete a draw, so his c/r is very strange. I expect AJ, QJ. A higher set is unlikely because of the flop and turn check I think, only JJ is a possibility. Anyway, I call this.

[KurtSF]

All in baby.

[kurto]

Against a player with decent stats, you don't think the checkraise is indicative of a monster?

Some thoughts-
To whomever said KJ- you don't think a player who raises KJ preflop is going to check that flop when he hits top pair? I don't buy it.

I DID end up calling only because I considered the possibility that it was a really poorly played overpair. But I think villain plays it more like a monster. (I don't give these players credit to be doing this with air)

I think the common wisdom (which I usually abide by...) is that we can't fold sets. I'm just trying to figure out when to go against that.

Reverse the roles- what hand would YOU possibly play this way if you were villain?

[KurtSF]

There is no hand I play this way. None.

The only hand I play like that on the river is JJ, but I would c-bet that on the flop. There is no possible holding I would have to take that line.

And this tells us exactly nothing about villain's hand.

[Unknown Soldier]

I've seen much worse boards then this when holding a set.

[kurto]

alrightee. Well... I didn't push. I at least listened to the voice that much.

I was feeling a slowplayed KK was his most likely holding.

Though it was worse. He had 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I don't like villains check on the turn. But his river play is certainly indicative of a monster.

[2mb]

Yeah, bad play by villain. When he doesn't raise turn he makes it very cheap for higher flushdraws and sets to draw. I don't think you did anything wrong, just make a note he raises SCs from CO in a limped pot and slowplays when he hits.

[Bonesy]

I'm glad you posted this hand because it brings attention to something I rarely if ever see as a bluff which is the river c/r. I don't think I could bring myself to fold it but nice call at least.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm glad you posted this hand because it brings attention to something I rarely if ever see as a bluff which is the river c/r. I don't think I could bring myself to fold it but nice call at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I have seen a few maniacs who are capable of bluff checkraise but I feel comfortable saying they are the exceptions to the rule.

I think with a hand like this against a player who's not a complete idiot... he's not bluffing. He may not have the best hand but he definitely THINKS he does.

If I thought the guy was an idiot, then it could be a really poorly played overpair. But I really don't think this player is the type to check an overpair on the flop.

I also reiterate that if he raised KJ, he's not checking this flop.

I really did not give too much thought to him having what he did. I really thought the most likely holdings was a better set.

I generally am happy to go broke with any set. But I think on our forum we're a little closed to the idea of trying to find places to fold a set.

As you said, this is not a bluff. The guy thinks he has a great hand. He raised pf... I really this the worst hand he has is two pair 6s and 7s (which would be horrendous of him... I really don't think he checks that through two streets). His other hands are sets or a straight.

I'm comfortable saying I'll lose 100bb 95% of the time with a set. If you can find the 5% of the time you're beaten the difference in winrate should be substantial, no?

[RAHZero]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can find the 5% of the time you're beaten the difference in winrate should be substantial, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you would hardly even notice it. Someone did the math for KK vs. AA in another thread and showed that even if you could somehow get away from KK every time your opponent had AA, it would only make a very small (much less than 1 PTBB / 100) difference in your winrate. Set over set is even more rare, so getting away from it is going to improve your winrate even less than getting away from KK vs. AA.