NL50 6max: balla or spew?

[Smilin']

Button was something like 26/6/2.3 over maybe 50-60 hands (from memory), and no reads other than that. Given the action, Button's bet smelled like a bluff. Is this checkraise good?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.30
Hero: $77.50
CO: $15
Button: $74.15
SB: $39.35
BB: $80.75

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif ($10.5, 4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($10.5, 4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $5</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $20</font>

[Check_The_Nuts]

lol wow why would you check raise the turn there? I think I'd push everything. No wait, I'd call then raise river, thats like 12x better.....

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
lol wow why would you check raise the turn there? I think I'd push everything. No wait, I'd call then raise river, thats like 12x better.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Sarcasm??

My thought was that this would fold out a 9 or a higher pair, which seemed a plausible holding. I also figured unpaired face cards have some outs against me and fold.

I guess if I expect Villain to bluff again on the river, it's better to wait to raise. Is that likely to happen, though?

[KurtSF]

You'll probably fold out anything short of AQ. I can't make moves like this because I'm weak, but I like it.

[DMoogle]

Without reads, there's NO REASON to think this is a bluff. He could very easily have Ax and checked the flop for pot control.

On the other hand, your play is so weird that he very well may fold anything less than AJ or AQ.

[Check_The_Nuts]

k - you guys are blowing my mind. WTF do you check the turn with 2nd last to act and then check raise just the button with? I'm amazed you did this with a pair, more wondering if you'll actually call with it if he's smart enough to play back.

AND its 4 way!!

[ipot]

spew

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
k - you guys are blowing my mind. WTF do you check the turn with 2nd last to act and then check raise just the button with? I'm amazed you did this with a pair, more wondering if you'll actually call with it if he's smart enough to play back.

AND its 4 way!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I certainly wouldn't do this if there was still someone else in the hand by the time it got back to me. And I'm not too worried about him playing back at me with a weak hand--if he was that aggro, I'd likely have noticed by now.

Realistically, coming from me this is very likely a bluff. But some 50NLers do do crazy stuff like this with strong hands, so there's a good chance Villain can't know that.

I guess it comes down to this: I'm betting $20 to win $15, so I need to get him to fold at least 4/7 of the time. So the probability that he has a strong enough hand to call plus the probability that he doesn't and picks off my bluff have to add up to less than 3/7. Not sure whether that's the case here; it seems close to me. You think it's not even close?

Note that I wouldn't do this if it was anyone but the Button betting here--I figure that raises the chance that he's stealing the pot or betting a mediocre (but better) hand.

[carnivalhobo]

what are you repping?

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
what are you repping?

[/ QUOTE ]

A set. I wouldn't play it like this, but it's at least not a crazy board to slowplay a set.

[Check_The_Nuts]

Smilin - if I was button I'd definitely be thinking that your thinking exactly what your thinking, Get me?

edit: lol a set....

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
Smilin - if I was button I'd definitely be thinking that your thinking exactly what your thinking, Get me?

edit: lol a set....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, fair point. BUT... this requires the parlay that Button is thinking on higher levels AND that Button guesses my "type" correctly (since some people might do this with a set).

Is the point that there's no way Button has a 4/7 chance of folding, or is it that this builds bad instincts for higher levels? This isn't standard for me BTW, but I thought I'd experiment.

[spacetime]

I personally would not c/r here, without a good read, I would have a hard time believing you had an ace here.

[corsakh]

When you are making a move like this, first make sure it makes sense in the content of the hand. What hand would you check raise on this turn from CO? I push from the button with all sorts of air.

[Vyse]

wtf are you doing? No one with a hand will believe this, and if he shoves over you -- which I would do in a second -- now you're folding the "best" hand (since you think he's bluffing, but even if you do think that, you can never call his shove).

Just call the turn and re-evaluate on the river.

[Michael Davis]

I don't think what you are repping matters nearly as much as everyone says it does. Sometimes it doesn't really matter if your play makes sense, you're going to fold a guy if you throw enough chips at him and generally guys with pf raises of 6 are good targets for this.

-Michael