Semi-deep AA against good villain [Archive] - Two Plus Two Newer Archives

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EMc

02-05-2007, 10:17 PM

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.05
UTG+1: $132.65
CO: $49.25
Button: $51.80
EMc: $78.70
BB: $109.70

Pre-flop: (6 players) EMc is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, CO calls, Button folds, EMc raises to $9, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif ($20.5, 2 players)
EMc bets $18, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($56.5, 2 players)
EMc checks, UTG+1 checks.

River: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($56.5, 2 players)

Notes on villain:

He is solid. Very aggro, 40/26 and running well. The only history we have is him once raising my CB and me folding, and me 2 barrel bluffing him. Whats your move on the river, and hows t he line so far?

KurtSF

02-05-2007, 10:25 PM

You don't have much deep. Check river and pick off a bluff.

goofyballer

02-05-2007, 10:27 PM

Pre and flop are fine. I might lead flop smaller for metagame purposes (so that I don't have to risk as much in future RR pots if I whiff) but your bet size isn't bad. I think I lead turn depending on how often you think villain has AK/KQ here; if he's gonna float a lot and thinks you're w/t, c/r turn is good. As played, shove river. I don't think he's gonna try to push you off QQ/JJ.

orange

02-05-2007, 10:28 PM

bet the river for value. whatever you think he'll call.

Xanta

02-05-2007, 10:34 PM

Kurt what is the villain bluffing with here?

The flop was so dry that unless he was completely floating you, he has something here. Also, if he were floating you, he probably would have fired on the turn when hero slowed down. If we check and villain bets, I'd be inclined to think that we're behind his range.

I think we lose a significant amount of value here by letting him check behind with TT-QQ, KQ, AK, and that kind of crap.

Edit: Nevermind about the range, I think KQ and AK bets this river when we check.

Xanta

02-05-2007, 10:42 PM

EMc, what's your line if the villain bets $45 on the turn?

I like the turn check but playing out of that spot is so read dependent. I feel dirty checking against an unknown because I always get lost and spew when he bets.

jdefoe

02-05-2007, 10:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bet the river for value. whatever you think he'll call.

[/ QUOTE ]

NO, whatever maximizes your expection, read the Mathematics of poker junior /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Speedlimits

02-05-2007, 11:16 PM

KurtSF

02-06-2007, 12:10 AM

We're checking the turn because we're 150BB deep with a one-pair hand.

I think villain bets 9x, Tx, and Kx on the end, maybe even QQ and JJ if he's as agro as EMC's read suggests. I want to minimize my exposure here and don't want to get reraised on the river. We miss some value when he checks through, but most of the hands he checks through won't be called if we value bet. 9x, KK, 55 are reraising us.

I haven't done all the maths, but my gut says check/call up to a PSB here.

uuser

02-06-2007, 12:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
We're checking the turn because we're 150BB deep with a one-pair hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

We just turned to two-pair and we shoud bet it.

DMoogle

02-06-2007, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We're checking the turn because we're 150BB deep with a one-pair hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

We just turned to two-pair and we shoud bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Technically we have two pair, but the 9 definitely hurts our hand more than helps it (it's pretty damn unlikely he had K-5). Once in a while you'll catch a guy here with 9-T or 9-8 (he called the reraise preflop in position deep-stacked, so I wouldn't say that's out of his range at all). I don't think we should be afraid of it either.

I don't know, it's pretty hard not to get stacked in a re-raised pot with AA on a board like this. However, if he had trips or a boat, then I don't think he would check behind on the turn. He may very well be in there with a hand like TT. I think a value bet of half the pot, $25-$30, would work on the river. That's what I'd do.

Check_The_Nuts

02-06-2007, 02:08 AM

why did you bet the flop so big? If you bet any amount I don't see how you could fold.........

corsakh

02-06-2007, 02:11 AM

I'd say check minraise the river, since he is going to bet it for value. And bet the flop like 12.

corsakh

02-06-2007, 02:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Technically we have two pair, but the 9 definitely hurts our hand more than helps it (it's pretty damn unlikely he had K-5).

[/ QUOTE ]

9 is a good card for us. There is no way a solid player is calling a 3bet with a 9.

EMc

02-06-2007, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.05
UTG+1: $132.65
CO: $49.25
Button: $51.80
EMc: $78.70
BB: $109.70

Pre-flop: (6 players) EMc is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, CO calls, Button folds, EMc raises to $9, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif ($20.5, 2 players)
EMc bets $18, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($56.5, 2 players)
EMc checks, UTG+1 checks.

River: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($56.5, 2 players)
EMc bets $30, Villain raises $60 , EMc calls.

Notes on villain:

He is solid. Very aggro, 40/26 and running well. The only history we have is him once raising my CB and me folding, and me 2 barrel bluffing him. Whats your move on the river, and hows t he line so far?

[/ QUOTE ]

So here is my thought process on the hand.

PF is pretty standard. I had seen villain squeeze about 5 hands earlier, so I think he knows there is a chance im squeezing here.

Flop: Again, pretty standard. I usually lead for about pot, no different here.

Turn: At this point im fairly sure I have the best hand. Im hoping to capitalize on his extremely aggro tendencies, he doesnt oblige.

River: Well, I still think I have the best hand, but mightve given one too many free cards. Im gonna lead for a nice VB of 30, see what he does. He raises, I call and get pissed Im all in with one pair.

Results:
Villain has T9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

corsakh

02-06-2007, 04:03 AM

I thought he was solid /images/graemlins/smile.gif

DMoogle

02-06-2007, 01:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought he was solid /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
You can be loose preflop (40/27 is pretty damn loose) and still be a solid player postflop. Calling a reraise with position deepstacked with a suited connector is NOT a total donk play. At worst it's just a little -ev, but it does add deception to your game and keep your opponents on their toes. However, you should note that 89 would be a trouble hand, because you're going to get stacked nearly always on T-J-Q boards against AK.

I think it's a very tricky check behind by him on the turn, unless he really thought you were squeezing preflop. I'm not sure I like it, because I'd expect you to get stacked anyways with AA (unless maybe he put you on AK? Your flop bet makes the pot too large to fold it after the flop though), JJ/QQ/TT are just taking a DANGEROUS free card (and aren't planning on investing much if any on the river anyways), and total bluffs aren't calling any river anyways.

corsakh

02-06-2007, 01:38 PM

Dude, its a large 18BB 3bet from the blinds into 150BB stacks. And villain does not have a pocket, hes got a SC. Thats not solid, thats spew.

I totally understand raising with T9s from UTG for metagame reasons. But raising with T9s from UTG in micros where noone cares is also spew.

DMoogle

02-06-2007, 02:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, its a large 18BB 3bet from the blinds into 150BB stacks. And villain does not have a pocket, hes got a SC. Thats not solid, thats spew.

I totally understand raising with T9s from UTG for metagame reasons. But raising with T9s from UTG in micros where noone cares is also spew.

[/ QUOTE ]
It goes back to being loose preflop. If you were coaching someone, they already had poker tracker, and they told you their preflop stats were 40/27, would you not instantly think that they're already a total donk? Although they are pretty rare, if you're playing against someone who's 40/27 and is solid postflop, then he can be a VERY tough opponent.

I still don't think it's total spew. Preflop he's getting 2:1 immediate pot odds, plus 10:1 implied odds. While I agree that it's a -ev call (at least 15:1 would be much better), the fact that it DOES add deception to your game and keeps your opponent on their toes will result in higher +ev situations for the times he has stronger hands.

There's also another factor that I forgot to put in. Villian still has the CO behind him, which increases his implied odds even more, although I don't think it's by much.

BukNaked36

02-06-2007, 02:43 PM

The preflop call is questionable. I can't believe the flop call though. Unless hero has been reraising light a lot, villian has to know he is behind here, drawing to 5 outs, and is calling a 36BB bet. That's spew and a total suckout.

KurtSF

02-06-2007, 03:03 PM

How much does he valbet on the end with the boat? How much do you call?

Bet all-in $51 - easy fold right?
Bet $20 - easy call right?
Bet $30 - what do you do?

Warteen

02-06-2007, 03:23 PM

Villain made a bad call on the flop and sucked out. Sorry you got bad beat.

DMoogle

02-06-2007, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The preflop call is questionable. I can't believe the flop call though. Unless hero has been reraising light a lot, villian has to know he is behind here, drawing to 5 outs, and is calling a 36BB bet. That's spew and a total suckout.

[/ QUOTE ]
Guess I can't argue with that.

jskinn04

02-06-2007, 04:27 PM

EMC. Preflop and on the flop, your betsizes were large enough to deny him the implied odds he needs to stack you with T9s. After he calls the flop, I'd put him on AK, KQ, 99, 55, QQ, JJ or KK. He could also be floating QJ or his actual hand, but that's rare. I think you're ahead of his range on the turn and my goal would be to get stacks in however possible. AK and all the hands that beat you will probably get it in no matter how you play so those don't matter much IMO. I'd play for two purposes (1) extract from Kx,QQ, and JJ and (2) protect against QJ, QT, or JT drawing to the gutshot. With $56 in the turn pot and about $50 left to be won from you stack, all you have to bet on the turn to price out a gutshot is about $15. KQ will likely call this bet, too. QQ and JJ may call, too because the odds are great. Thus, I'd bet $15 on the turn, and get all the money in at the next opportunity.

Speedlimits

02-06-2007, 04:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We're checking the turn because we're 150BB deep with a one-pair hand.

I think villain bets 9x, Tx, and Kx on the end, maybe even QQ and JJ if he's as agro as EMC's read suggests. I want to minimize my exposure here and don't want to get reraised on the river. We miss some value when he checks through, but most of the hands he checks through won't be called if we value bet. 9x, KK, 55 are reraising us.

I haven't done all the maths, but my gut says check/call up to a PSB here.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have 2 pair first off. Secondly, statements like these don't mean much when it is 3 bet pre flop.

Speedlimits

02-06-2007, 04:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We're checking the turn because we're 150BB deep with a one-pair hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

We just turned to two-pair and we shoud bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Technically we have two pair, but the 9 definitely hurts our hand more than helps it (it's pretty damn unlikely he had K-5). Once in a while you'll catch a guy here with 9-T or 9-8 (he called the reraise preflop in position deep-stacked, so I wouldn't say that's out of his range at all). I don't think we should be afraid of it either.

I don't know, it's pretty hard not to get stacked in a re-raised pot with AA on a board like this. However, if he had trips or a boat, then I don't think he would check behind on the turn. He may very well be in there with a hand like TT. I think a value bet of half the pot, $25-$30, would work on the river. That's what I'd do.

[/ QUOTE ]

you seem pretty confused on basic poker concepts.

DMoogle

02-06-2007, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you seem pretty confused on basic poker concepts.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm glad you pointed that out. I'm here to learn, so please tell me what exactly I'm thinking through wrong.

I'm not being sarcastic, I really want to know.

Speedlimits

02-06-2007, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you seem pretty confused on basic poker concepts.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm glad you pointed that out. I'm here to learn, so please tell me what exactly I'm thinking through wrong.

I'm not being sarcastic, I really want to know.

[/ QUOTE ]

In your other post you said T9 was in his range. I am going to assume the villian is somewhat decent, if he is somewhat decent there is no way he is calling a 4.5x raise ($2-->$9) with any suited connector. In fact calling with a pocket pair here for set value is debatable (see dbitels 3-8 rule).

So basically the 9 doesn't change much at all and will be a good card for us against the majority of villian's range. We NEED to bet turn here, we have a very strong hand and checking allows a couple of things that we don't want.

1) It opens up the opportunity to bluff on a scared card.
Any scare cards, K, 10, J, Q. These are all bad cards for us.

2) If we check turn, we are giving up a lot of real equity.
(This is a $50nl game and the pot is already $20 on the flop.. get the rest of the money in ASAP.

Check_The_Nuts

02-06-2007, 06:19 PM

humm....wonder if this is spew....

Villian risks $18 to win $56.50.

5outsx4=20% (you gave two free cards here, on a huge blank turn).

so if 20% of the time he wins $56.50+60=116.50
.20*116.5=$23.30
.80*$18=-$14.40

wonder how big a bet you can call on the river...
.2*(56.6+x)=.8*18
x=15.40

my math must be off....must need the $10 in preflop to work out...
so 23.30
and .8*(18+10)=-22.40
So still +EV, since you put your whole stack in....

I don't promise my math is right though...

jskinn04

02-06-2007, 07:33 PM

On the flop the villain stands to win Hero's whole preflop stack plus the blinds plus the bet the villain put in preflop.

That amount would be $78.70 + $3 + $9 = $90.70.

I think his EV for absolute maximum implied odds (free river and gets paid on river) would be

EV = .2*$90.70 + .8*-$18 = $3.6