NL50: River decision 200BB deep

[Baintz]

I was going for the check/raise on the turn as villain had been frequently double barreling.

Pokerstars NL50

Hero has 101.50, Villain (UTG) covers

Hero is SB with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises to 2, 3 folds, Hero calls, BB folds

Flop ($4.50)

2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hero checks, UTG bets 2.50, Hero calls

Turn ($9.50)

2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hero checks, UTG checks

River ($9.50)

2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero bets 8, UTG raises all-in, Hero ???

I think from this villain this is trips or a higher FH, a bluff or AA/KK almost never.
Is this a really easy call? What's a better line in this spot given such a dry flop?

[thac]

Wow, you really messed up prior streets so we have no idea what villain has here. Check/calling this flop is very bad 200 bbs deep. You have $2 invested, and need to get $98 more in - check/calling $2.50 is not gonna build the pot.

If villain is aggressive and will raise a donkbet, I don't mind leading (your flop pot size is wrong, it's $4.50 on the flop) about $3 here and hope he raises flop. If he doesn't, I lead turn again for 2/3 pot.

As played, I don't think you can call this as it looks exactly like what you're repping - a monster. It looks like you have a lone Q here and are looking for value from AA/KK or a lesser pair. Villain sees this and still overbet shoves. I think his JJ got there on the river.. I don't think he has a naked Q here ever.

[Baintz]

Thanks, have edited the mistakes.

[Nocturnal]

Wow.

When were you planning on getting the money in here?

Checkcall/checkraise the turn is such a bad line as it severely limits the size of the pot you can win, while allowing villain to play his hand perfectly.

Getting only 5BBs out of 200 over 2 streets is just ridiculous. I'd try to lead/3bet this flop every single time. If he just calls the lead, I'm potting the turn. If he raises flop/calls a 3bet, I'm betting 4/5th pot on turn and 4/5th again on the river.

As played... lol, this is so ridiculous. You got your wish of getting the money in on this river, but now it looks like you're beat here. You're losing to 88, QQ, JJ, QdJd. You can beat KK, AA, AQ, KQ, 9Ts.

You prolly stack AA/KK on the flop, but by slowplaying, now that you're in this tough situation, YOU need to tell us what the right play is, as your reads have to be better than ours here.

If Villain has been double barreling a lot, then I'm guessing he's pretty aggressive, so if I HAD to make a decision on this river, I'm going to put KQ, AQ, and 9T in his range here.

Is it a call? Very borderline. Definitely not a really easy call.