NL 50 set on mono flop vs shove

[Tony Montana 22]

Villan is 37/8 over a small sample 60 hands


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($69.85)
Button ($30)
SB ($73.75)
BB ($8.50)
UTG ($59.40)
MP ($23.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1.5</font>, MP calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, Button calls $1.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($6.75) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6.5</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $57.9</font>, Hero ???

[Acein8ter]

You need a FH to beat a flush.(Assuming that he has one)

Any 4 or Q to pair the board and the case 5 for quads. ~7 outs? (Not including runner runner that is paired) ~30% chance of hitting or so by the river. I'd fold unless you feel like gambling.

[holyfield5]

his range includes more than just flushes tho many ppl like the call here

[lynxman73]

yeah three hearts on the board and he bets big he has to have a flush here what kind of thinking is this call and don't be a nit

[jpc001]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah three hearts on the board and he bets big he has to have a flush here what kind of thinking is this call and don't be a nit

[/ QUOTE ]

im not sure what this means, but i don't think you can find a fold here, UTG is 37/8 pf so his range is pretty narrow- here's a quick pokerstove run
Board: 4h 5h Qh
Dead:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 20.940% 19.47% 01.47% {TT+, AQs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, AQo+}
Hand 1: 79.060% 77.59% 01.47% { 55 }

ive given UTG a decently wide PFR range as well, given that he's UTG. he could be making this move with any heart.

[thac]

What's villain's flop aggression factor? I call this a lot because he can have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ, K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ.

Also Acein8ter, on the turn you pick up 3 more outs, calling this definitely isn't bad at this level for 120 bbs.

[Acein8ter]

That's true... ~10 outs at the turn. Lets say he was playing the nut flush playing Axs. Would it be wise to call the AI $57 here?

[orange]

very easy call.

[thac]

You're calling roughly 50 to win 75.. 1.5:1 on ur money.. I'll say 8.5 odds since we pick up more on the turn:


8.5 x 4 = 32% equity
1.5:1 = ~40% to call if my math is right

So if his hand is face up.. it's a fold, but he has so many other hands in his range that it's a call.

(Someone correct my math please, I'm not a very good thinker this late at night.)

[corsakh]

Your more likely to be against AQ here more than anything else. You will have lots of outs to a boat on the turn.

[21SuicideKing21]

Who would seriously would just shove with a flush. Most likely hes got AQ with Ah or he's protecting a pp. He could have queens and then your just in deep trouble. I like a call if you are willing to gamble against a flush draw because thats what hes got.

[JNuey]

Have to call here, villain has AQ/AA/KK here way too often to fold. BTW you most likely have ten clean outs here.