Warning! The Armageddon Date: 3/1/07. Prepare Yourself.

[gaboonviper]

Through my current analysis of the legislative/political poker environment I have come up with a date, 3/1/07, when I think things in the poker world will get really, really, REALLY crazy. I call this date The Armageddon Date and here is what I think will happen by then: 1.) The money most players have in their online accounts will be depleted by then with little or no way to replenish this money; 2.) Even those who are still bringing in money now will have run out of cash by then or be extremely low, with no viable way to replenish it; 3.) ePassporte, the only remaining "safe" wallet, will have pulled out of the US market. Even now their service is poor. I give them no more than 2 weeks; 4.) No longterm viable solution will be found by the sites for receiving and sending money from and to players; 5.) More banks will be enforcing the UIGEA making the movement of money to and from the sites harder still. Bank of America and Wachovia have already started, with many more coming soon; 6.) There will be more arrests by the DOJ, some could come as soon as this week. This will put even more pressure on any entities involved in the transfer of money to and from the sites to pull out of the US market. It will also put a great deal of fear in any new money transfer business considering opening up shop in the US; 7.) Beacause of all this the great majority of players will adopt a "hunker down--stop playing till things look better" attitude-- as many already are-- which of course will be devestating to the sites, as you can imagine. To conclude, I think my date of 3/1/07 is accurate considering how fast things are already progressing. It could come a little sooner or later but The Armageddon Date 3/1/07 is a good choice. So mark it on your calendar. Etch it in your brain. 3/1/07. The Armageddon Date.

[DING-DONG YO]

Please lock and ban. These posts are neither informative nor contstructive.

[adanthar]

lol

[mattw]

you have some good points.

predicting a date is absurb.

paragraphs are your friend.

[RoundGuy]

What, exactly, is your point? And can I call you a complete moron if your predictions don't come true? Actually, why wait:

You're a moron.

[Rigel]

Armageddon? Hardly. Not while RPS for money is still an option.

http://www.worldrps.com/

[aces_full]

[ QUOTE ]
5.) More banks will be enforcing the UIGEA making the movement of money to and from the sites harder still. Bank of America and Wachovia have already started, with many more coming soon

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, this is probably a troll, but I'll bite.....

Could you please elaborate on this? I have a Wachovia account that I opened for the sole purpose of transferring money to and from poker sites using Firepay/Netteller. It is also where I have deposited paper checks from poker sites. What exactly are they doing to enforce the UIGEA and how do you know this info?

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
Please lock and ban. These posts are neither informative nor contstructive.

[/ QUOTE ]

They do provide some comic relief.

[planB]

Beware the Ides of March! Caesar went down will online poker follow?

[Howard Beale]

Deride the OP all you want for his style but he is more right than wrong. The losing players will run out of the money they have on the sites now sooner or later and their current funding methods will likely be no longer available. I don't think all that many of them will jump thru hoops to arrange for new ones. The winning, determined players will find a way and the Feds will close them as soon as they are found out.

The real problem is: Even if you can conduct your financial transactions will the games available be any good w/o the casual American players?

[okietalker]

[ QUOTE ]
Deride the OP all you want for his style but he is more right than wrong. The losing players will run out of the money they have on the sites now sooner or later and their current funding methods will likely be no longer available. I don't think all that many of them will jump thru hoops to arrange for new ones. The winning, determined players will find a way and the Feds will close them as soon as they are found out.

The real problem is: Even if you can conduct your financial transactions will the games available be any good w/o the casual American players?

[/ QUOTE ]



I agree 100%

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
Deride the OP all you want for his style but he is more right than wrong. The losing players will run out of the money they have on the sites now sooner or later and their current funding methods will likely be no longer available. I don't think all that many of them will jump thru hoops to arrange for new ones. The winning, determined players will find a way and the Feds will close them as soon as they are found out.

The real problem is: Even if you can conduct your financial transactions will the games available be any good w/o the casual American players?

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, Even after the UIGEA, many poker sites closing to the US, and the Neteller pullout... The number of players online continues to exceed the numbers before the UIGEA /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The people who want to play, will find a way!... and there are many global players uneffected by US action.

Follow along, in the Tracking thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=7666067)

[CutCreator]

you are also assuming that poker sites are not working on a plan to get money two and from them faster.

[dragonystic]

this model of prediction you have only seems to be accurate and worthewhile if everyone on this planet were american! for some reason most americans are plagued by this syndrome; forgetting nonamericans exist.

the US makes up roughly half of the poker playing populace. even if an entire 50% of those currently playing quit (a bold estimate to say the least) we still would have 75% of what we started with. a slightly worse ratio of sharks to fish. but plenty of games nonetheless.

and that would be one of the more dire situations we could face. even with all the stuff that has happened thus far. even with all the sites closing, and eWallets dropping. numbers are still as good or better than they were before all this happened. check out Snipers thread on peak hour numbers for each site.

now im not saying everything is gonna be rosy and blissful. things are probably gonna get worse, and maybe even much worse. but this date you set is as arbitrary as predicting the REAL armageddon. so congratulations on joining the league of all the people throughout history that have done that. we know their success rate.

[rcd]

Sniper, your optimism balances the posters pessimism. There are good points on both sides, just don't shoot the messenger (not you sniper) if you don't like the message.

There will be bad news and good news in the coming months. Lets enjoy the rollercoaster.

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
Please lock and ban. These posts are neither informative nor contstructive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if we had far more discussion when Pinnacle pulled out of the market, us Americans would not be scrambling doing peer to peer transactions to get out money. RUMOR in the Zoo is Chexx is going to pull out next week and we loose our ability to request paper checks from Stars, Tilt and others. The situation is going to get worse sooner than better.

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
Sniper, your optimism balances the posters pessimism. There are good points on both sides, just don't shoot the messenger (not you sniper) if you don't like the message.

There will be bad news and good news in the coming months. Lets enjoy the rollercoaster.

[/ QUOTE ]

rcd, I have tried to balance my statements overall between the overly optomistic view and the overly pessimistic view... and in line with the Purpose of the tracking thread, simply tried to provide as much factual information, as possible.

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Deride the OP all you want for his style but he is more right than wrong. The losing players will run out of the money they have on the sites now sooner or later and their current funding methods will likely be no longer available. I don't think all that many of them will jump thru hoops to arrange for new ones. The winning, determined players will find a way and the Feds will close them as soon as they are found out.

The real problem is: Even if you can conduct your financial transactions will the games available be any good w/o the casual American players?

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, Even after the UIGEA, many poker sites closing to the US, and the Neteller pullout... The number of players online continues to exceed the numbers before the UIGEA /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The people who want to play, will find a way!... and there are many global players uneffected by US action.

Follow along, in the Tracking thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=7666067)

[/ QUOTE ]

I am tracking. Stars was at 15,608 peak on Monday 1/15. Their 24 hour peak on Monday 1/29 is 11,722. In just two weeks that is a drop off of 25%.

Tilt was 8252 (1/15) and 5857 (1/29) for a drop off of 29%.

Bodog was 3925 (1/15) and 2376 (1/29) for a drop off of 40%.

Party was at 9124 (1/15) and 11213 on (1/29) for an increase of close to 22%. Some of it is an increase to 12 tables from 6 and a current bonus.

To me it says US players are leaving Tilt and Stars and Europeans are leaving for Party.

[D.L.M.]

doesnt make any sense. in a nutshell. all the winning us players will be ok, theyll just have to keep more in their accounts before cashing out so as not to get f'ed by variance. the european fish will still keep coming back, and thats all that matters. poker players in the us gone will hurt. but they game will still be profitable, the only differece is that imo the "high stakes" will get lower and lower till you cant find a game past 10/20 nl. i doubt it will get lower than that.

[Sniper]

Dennisa, I added my thoughts in the Tracking thread...

[Jack Bando]

[ QUOTE ]

fwiw, Even after the UIGEA, many poker sites closing to the US, and the Neteller pullout... The number of players online continues to exceed the numbers before the UIGEA /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The people who want to play, will find a way!... and there are many global players uneffected by US action.

Follow along, in the Tracking thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=7666067)

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

I am tracking. Stars was at 11554 on Dec 25th 15,608 on Monday 1/15. Their 24 hour peak on Monday 1/29 is 11,722. In just two weeks they're back to around pre holiday totals .

Tilt was 5699 (12/25) 8252 (1/15) and 5857 (1/29) for a return to near pre Holiday totals .

Bodog was 2816 (12/25) ,3925 (1/15) and 2376 (1/29) for a return to pre Holiday totals.

Party was at 9124 (1/15) and 11213 on (1/29) for an increase of close to 22%. Some of it is an increase to 12 tables from 6 and a current bonus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Added some more info.

Most of Party's boost probably is due to 12 tabling, sitting at 2 tables counts you twice according to Scout's method.

How much of the Stars/Tilt/Bodog/etc... drop is holiday boost wearing off and how much is loss due to Neteller remains to be seen.

[Yakuman]

As far as the bad players go, they can go to giftcards.com and buy a virtual prepaid card. Or they can go to any Walgreen's and get the Gift2Go cards. In a few months, we'll see plenty of punters, good or bad, deciding to "move" offshore.

[Mondogarage]

Seriously, how many "bad" players will remain motivated enough to get in their car and drive to Walgreens? A lot of losing players are very likely to say "oh well, that's that" and find a new hobby. Ascribing behavior of a generally good player who might run bad for a while, to a school of real fish, is probably not accurate. Folks who are most likely to end up losing their money are also those who are least likely to accept having to take extra steps just to get to lose more money.

[gaboonviper]

Just as I finished posting this Chexx Inc., the organization that processes and sends out all checks for Stars, UB, Absolute and others announced they are pulling from US on 2/2/07. So there will be almost NO WAY for these sites to get your cash to you. All of you will see that my predictions will prove to be true.

[Yakuman]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, how many "bad" players will remain motivated enough to get in their car and drive to Walgreens?

[/ QUOTE ]

People get their clocks cleaned at local games and come back for more all the time. They've been doing it since at least the Civil War.

Good grief, look at the hugeness of the sportsbook business, which has been in a MUCH bigger legal tar pit since 1961.

People know that playing the games isn't going to get them in hot water. The house absorbs all the legal liability. There will always be loopholes in the legal system, even if it is just Nicaragua Joe.

[dragonystic]

[ QUOTE ]
All of you will see that my predictions will prove to be true.

[/ QUOTE ]

$1000 prop?

[Sand]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
5.) More banks will be enforcing the UIGEA making the movement of money to and from the sites harder still. Bank of America and Wachovia have already started, with many more coming soon

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, this is probably a troll, but I'll bite.....

Could you please elaborate on this? I have a Wachovia account that I opened for the sole purpose of transferring money to and from poker sites using Firepay/Netteller. It is also where I have deposited paper checks from poker sites. What exactly are they doing to enforce the UIGEA and how do you know this info?

[/ QUOTE ]

The funny part of this is that I just got a check from a sportsbook site drawn on Wachovia Bank. Not sure how much it means, but the irony did strike me.

[Mondogarage]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, how many "bad" players will remain motivated enough to get in their car and drive to Walgreens?

[/ QUOTE ]

People get their clocks cleaned at local games and come back for more all the time. They've been doing it since at least the Civil War.

Good grief, look at the hugeness of the sportsbook business, which has been in a MUCH bigger legal tar pit since 1961.

People know that playing the games isn't going to get them in hot water. The house absorbs all the legal liability. There will always be loopholes in the legal system, even if it is just Nicaragua Joe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really disagree...but...I guess I should explain it this way, and yes, it's all imho...

If you're a bad player, one reason is that you probably haven't actually worked at the game, by taking the time to take any steps beyond the simple act of logging in, transferring money, and then losing. It's all comfort and convenience. Because if you have the inclination to actually work at it, you're (most likely) going to improve.

To me, the natural conclusion of this is that those who aren't willing to work at it are probably not nearly as inclined to have to take that many additional steps to fund their accounts, as that would also be "work". I could certainly be wrong.

[Jack Bando]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, how many "bad" players will remain motivated enough to get in their car and drive to Walgreens?

[/ QUOTE ]

People get their clocks cleaned at local games and come back for more all the time. They've been doing it since at least the Civil War.

Good grief, look at the hugeness of the sportsbook business, which has been in a MUCH bigger legal tar pit since 1961.

People know that playing the games isn't going to get them in hot water. The house absorbs all the legal liability. There will always be loopholes in the legal system, even if it is just Nicaragua Joe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really disagree...but...I guess I should explain it this way, and yes, it's all imho...

If you're a bad player, one reason is that you probably haven't actually worked at the game, by taking the time to take any steps beyond the simple act of logging in, transferring money, and then losing. It's all comfort and convenience. Because if you have the inclination to actually work at it, you're (most likely) going to improve.

To me, the natural conclusion of this is that those who aren't willing to work at it are probably not nearly as inclined to have to take that many additional steps to fund their accounts, as that would also be "work". I could certainly be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point, but at the same time I have to give my own view.

There are two kinds of losing players/fish

1)"I'm good! Really, it's bad luck that keeps me from winning the big moneys!" (If I even keep track of records at all)

2)"Maybe I win, maybe I lose, but I love to gamble/play poker!!!"

#1 will try to find a way to put money in, they're "great" players who has a big win coming real soon.

#2 enjoys it too much to stop. It's harder to download MP3s for free compared to 99, but people still find ways to do it.

[Ron-Mexico]

Can you PLEASE PLEASE ban this retard

[Jack Bando]

Ron, Sniper's not a mod on this board. Only Berge/Beal/Perfomify/42it could do that.

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

fwiw, Even after the UIGEA, many poker sites closing to the US, and the Neteller pullout... The number of players online continues to exceed the numbers before the UIGEA /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The people who want to play, will find a way!... and there are many global players uneffected by US action.

Follow along, in the Tracking thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=7666067)

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

I am tracking. Stars was at 11554 on Dec 25th 15,608 on Monday 1/15. Their 24 hour peak on Monday 1/29 is 11,722. In just two weeks they're back to around pre holiday totals .

Tilt was 5699 (12/25) 8252 (1/15) and 5857 (1/29) for a return to near pre Holiday totals .

Bodog was 2816 (12/25) ,3925 (1/15) and 2376 (1/29) for a return to pre Holiday totals.

Party was at 9124 (1/15) and 11213 on (1/29) for an increase of close to 22%. Some of it is an increase to 12 tables from 6 and a current bonus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Added some more info.

Most of Party's boost probably is due to 12 tabling, sitting at 2 tables counts you twice according to Scout's method.

How much of the Stars/Tilt/Bodog/etc... drop is holiday boost wearing off and how much is loss due to Neteller remains to be seen.

[/ QUOTE ]

The month of December is traditionally one of the slowest months for B&M Casinos. It should be slow for online casinos too, Finals, Christmas season, etc. Of course the numbers are low for December 25. Pre Thanksgiving Stars was at 13K and Full Tilt at 7K. Get your head out of the sand.

[Jack Bando]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

fwiw, Even after the UIGEA, many poker sites closing to the US, and the Neteller pullout... The number of players online continues to exceed the numbers before the UIGEA /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The people who want to play, will find a way!... and there are many global players uneffected by US action.

Follow along, in the Tracking thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=7666067)

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

I am tracking. Stars was at 11554 on Dec 25th 15,608 on Monday 1/15. Their 24 hour peak on Monday 1/29 is 11,722. In just two weeks they're back to around pre holiday totals .

Tilt was 5699 (12/25) 8252 (1/15) and 5857 (1/29) for a return to near pre Holiday totals .

Bodog was 2816 (12/25) ,3925 (1/15) and 2376 (1/29) for a return to pre Holiday totals.

Party was at 9124 (1/15) and 11213 on (1/29) for an increase of close to 22%. Some of it is an increase to 12 tables from 6 and a current bonus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Added some more info.

Most of Party's boost probably is due to 12 tabling, sitting at 2 tables counts you twice according to Scout's method.

How much of the Stars/Tilt/Bodog/etc... drop is holiday boost wearing off and how much is loss due to Neteller remains to be seen.

[/ QUOTE ]

The month of December is traditionally one of the slowest months for B&M Casinos. It should be slow for online casinos too, Finals, Christmas season, etc. Of course the numbers are low for December 25. Pre Thanksgiving Stars was at 13K and Full Tilt at 7K. Get your head out of the sand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why should Dec be slow for online casinos? People are home more, where the internet is.

The numbers were low for 12/25. Check out 12/26 where Stars goes from 11.5K to 15.4K or when Tilt went up from 5.8K to 6.5K and hit high 7's low 8's from X-mas till around the second week of January.

[Dennisa]

They are low in December for the following reasons:

1. Final Exams for College Students.
2. Recreational players who budget X dollars per month to play, re-alocate for Christmas Purchases.
3. Christmas Party Season, Parents and Grandparents going to see children perform at school.

Also if you start with pre Thanksgiving numbers, Dec 25th is about 10-15% below pre thanksgiving.

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
They are low in December for the following reasons:

1. Final Exams for College Students.
2. Recreational players who budget X dollars per month to play, re-alocate for Christmas Purchases.
3. Christmas Party Season, Parents and Grandparents going to see children perform at school.

Also if you start with pre Thanksgiving numbers, Dec 25th is about 10-15% below pre thanksgiving.

[/ QUOTE ]

You left out the most important reason:

People have other things to do on Holidays and Weekends...

[Jack Bando]

[ QUOTE ]
They are low in December for the following reasons:

1. Final Exams for College Students.
2. Recreational players who budget X dollars per month to play, re-alocate for Christmas Purchases.
3. Christmas Party Season, Parents and Grandparents going to see children perform at school.

Also if you start with pre Thanksgiving numbers, Dec 25th is about 10-15% below pre thanksgiving.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dec 25th is lower than most days in November. My point is, Dec 26th was their 4th highest day in Scout's history and the start of a surge that start to cool in mid-January a few days before Neteller left.

So numbers have been going down at the big 3 US sites, but they've only gone back down to pre-surge numbers.

[Sniper]

Don't forget that the Stars Million hand promo and a bunch of other bonus offers around that time also impacted traffic.

[tightmaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
They are low in December for the following reasons:

1. Final Exams for College Students.
2. Recreational players who budget X dollars per month to play, re-alocate for Christmas Purchases.
3. Christmas Party Season, Parents and Grandparents going to see children perform at school.

Also if you start with pre Thanksgiving numbers, Dec 25th is about 10-15% below pre thanksgiving.

[/ QUOTE ]

good point

[jluker7]

[ QUOTE ]
Just as I finished posting this Chexx Inc., the organization that processes and sends out all checks for Stars, UB, Absolute and others announced they are pulling from US on 2/2/07. So there will be almost NO WAY for these sites to get your cash to you. All of you will see that my predictions will prove to be true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this true? Cause I need to cash out today. if it is.. if not this is [censored] insane for leaving this bull [censored] open.

= )

Please where can i find info about this. Cause I dont need anymore worrying.

[jluker7]

ok i researched this after i freaked out. Ignore the ^^ above post.. Freaking idiots.

[4_2_it]

I am setting the Armageddon Date for this thread at 2/1/07.