Learn, Chat & Jail with the pros(part 4)

[gaboonviper]

Yesterday morning I posted here that Bodog would announce that they were getting rid of Jamie Gold. I posted this way before any of the poker news sites announced it. Before both Cardplayer.com and PokerNews.com. and any of the others announced it. Now let me tell you what else is up with Bodog. They will be pulling out of the US market very soon. Why have they not already pulled out? The Superbowl. Remember Bodog is primarily a sportsbook so they would have to be nuts to leave prior to the Superbowl. They make a ton from Superbowl betting as you can imagine. Once the Superbowl ends they end in the US. Why do you think they pulled ALL advertising in the US about a month ago? And this is also why they got rid of Jamie Gold--nobody gives a crap about him in Europe or Asia(or here, LOL)-which is where Bodog will focus all their attention, as their press releases clearly state. I give them no longer than a month after the Superbowl to pull out, but it will probably be much sooner. Now here are more of my poker related predictions which you will see come to pass(they are in no specific time related order). 1. All poker magazines aside from Cardplayer will fold. I think both Deal and Pro Poker Player are already done, but I am not sure. Bluff and All In are finished, it is just a matter of how much more money they are willing to throw at their money losing magazines. Cardplayer will remain but they will probably have to go to a monthly rather than bi-weekly format. Their college campus magazine will fold. 2. More and more of the sites will be letting go their top pro sponsors. They will no longer be able to keep a stable of top pros as their bottom line erodes. Bodog will dump David Williams and Josh Arieh after they leave the US, Evelyn is probably done too but they may keep her for the Asian market. Pokerstars will release all but their 3 WSOP Main Event winners. Vanessa, Tom and the rest of their other pros have limited time. Full Tilt will dump all of their "friends of Full Tilt group" over time as nobody cares about most of these goofs anyway. They will hold onto(as long as they can anyway) their original group-the full members-Lederer, Ferguson, Juanda, Gowen, Lindgren and the remaining others in this group. So basically the era of the sponsored pro is OVER. 3. One or more of the sponsored pros will be arrested by the feds for taking payouts from the (illegal- by US government standards anyway) pokersites. Payouts in the form of cash, tourney buyins, and other financial perks are what I am talking about. 4. Doyles Room will come to an end. They are part of the Tribeca Network which is made up of 114 online members each offering poker at their individual sites. Tribeca dumped Doyles Room about 2 months ago but gave them 6 months to "find another network." There are no other networks allowing US players that are of a significant enough size as to allow Doyles Room to have enough players at any one time playing at the site to keep their tables full. In other words it will be like a ghost town at Doyles once Tribeca drops them four months hence. They will be done. 5. Pokerstars will probably be the next BIG site to leave the US. Unlike Full Tilt they can survive without American players. They are an Israeli owned company and I know the Israeli owners of Stars want no trouble with the United States. Stars will stay until they get some real pressure for our government then they will run for the hills-mark my words. 6. Full Tilt is doomed. Unlike Stars they cannot survive without US players. And being the most visible of all the poker sites it is only a matter of time before the feds attack them. Their bottom line is also getting smashed due to all the e-wallet problems going on, not to mention the banks themselves who are now directly taking action against money transfers to and from the sites. These are just a few predictions--watch as they come true.

[KinkyKid]

[ QUOTE ]
Yesterday morning I posted here that Bodog would announce that they were getting rid of Jamie Gold. I posted this way before any of the poker news sites announced it. Before both Cardplayer.com and PokerNews.com. and any of the others announced it. Now let me tell you what else is up with Bodog. They will be pulling out of the US market very soon. Why have they not already pulled out? The Superbowl. Remember Bodog is primarily a sportsbook so they would have to be nuts to leave prior to the Superbowl. They make a ton from Superbowl betting as you can imagine. Once the Superbowl ends they end in the US. Why do you think they pulled ALL advertising in the US about a month ago? And this is also why they got rid of Jamie Gold--nobody gives a crap about him in Europe or Asia(or here, LOL)-which is where Bodog will focus all their attention, as their press releases clearly state. I give them no longer than a month after the Superbowl to pull out, but it will probably be much sooner. Now here are more of my poker related predictions which you will see come to pass(they are in no specific time related order). 1. All poker magazines aside from Cardplayer will fold. I think both Deal and Pro Poker Player are already done, but I am not sure. Bluff and All In are finished, it is just a matter of how much more money they are willing to throw at their money losing magazines. Cardplayer will remain but they will probably have to go to a monthly rather than bi-weekly format. Their college campus magazine will fold. 2. More and more of the sites will be letting go their top pro sponsors. They will no longer be able to keep a stable of top pros as their bottom line erodes. Bodog will dump David Williams and Josh Arieh after they leave the US, Evelyn is probably done too but they may keep her for the Asian market. Pokerstars will release all but their 3 WSOP Main Event winners. Vanessa, Tom and the rest of their other pros have limited time. Full Tilt will dump all of their "friends of Full Tilt group" over time as nobody cares about most of these goofs anyway. They will hold onto(as long as they can anyway) their original group-the full members-Lederer, Ferguson, Juanda, Gowen, Lindgren and the remaining others in this group. So basically the era of the sponsored pro is OVER. 3. One or more of the sponsored pros will be arrested by the feds for taking payouts from the (illegal- by US government standards anyway) pokersites. Payouts in the form of cash, tourney buyins, and other financial perks are what I am talking about. 4. Doyles Room will come to an end. They are part of the Tribeca Network which is made up of 114 online members each offering poker at their individual sites. Tribeca dumped Doyles Room about 2 months ago but gave them 6 months to "find another network." There are no other networks allowing US players that are of a significant enough size as to allow Doyles Room to have enough players at any one time playing at the site to keep their tables full. In other words it will be like a ghost town at Doyles once Tribeca drops them four months hence. They will be done. 5. Pokerstars will probably be the next BIG site to leave the US. Unlike Full Tilt they can survive without American players. They are an Israeli owned company and I know the Israeli owners of Stars want no trouble with the United States. Stars will stay until they get some real pressure for our government then they will run for the hills-mark my words. 6. Full Tilt is doomed. Unlike Stars they cannot survive without US players. And being the most visible of all the poker sites it is only a matter of time before the feds attack them. Their bottom line is also getting smashed due to all the e-wallet problems going on, not to mention the banks themselves who are now directly taking action against money transfers to and from the sites. These are just a few predictions--watch as they come true.

[/ QUOTE ]

tl;dr

[MelchyBeau]

I can't read that. PARAGRAPHS PARAGRAPHS

the little that I could read STFU

[Skallagrim]

I predict Stars and FullTilt and others will develop a new payment processing system that will be desigend to be defendable in Court. After the DOJ loses in Court Poker in the US will take off like never before.

I have no basis for this opinion either, I just would rather make happy predictions instead of Doom and Gloom ones.

[DING-DONG YO]

OP, you suck, use paragraphs.

For all we know, skallagrim's prediction is just as likely as yours.

[BarryLyndon]

I predict that this post sucks.

[ollie5050]

[ QUOTE ]
I predict that this post sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ill second, but if it does all happen, ill be impressed.

[adanthar]

the following things in that post have a real chance of happening:

-Bodog dumping their US pros
-Bodog pulling out (I doubt it, because Calvin Ayre doesn't seem like the type to leave easily, but there's a chance)

the following things range from 5-10% to lol:

-everything else

[Mondogarage]

Calvin Ayre stands a far greater likelihood of arrest than most other poker site operators, precisely because Bodog is involved with sports betting. That is why I think Bodog's a dead cert to pull out of the US in the near future, if the legislative situation isn't addressed. Say, by the end of March, but I wouldn't consider that time frame a stone cold lock by any means.

But that doesn't lend any credibility to gaboonviper's predictions, because it should be obvious to anyone that Bodog is not operating in the same space as poker only sites.

[Petomane]

I enjoyed your first post, now you seem obsessed.

Guess what? Outside of our small little poker universe, the world at large doesn't give a toss. None of this is making media news.

Our only hope is that once the Superbowl is over and the clamor to place football bets is done, the poker sites will quietly find a way to service us better. How much taxpayers' money can you waste going after perfectly legal businesses that never defrauded anyone? Don't they need that money for Iraq? They're already skimping on soldiers' meals over there.

You assume the DoJ is obsessed with this, but they have bigger fish to fry. They're making maximum noise before the Superbowl to frighten people off.

I could be wrong, but online gambling can't be their top prority.

[Jack Bando]

Are you going to make a rambling, asinine topic every day? Just wondering.

[Pokerboy2007]

I predict you are WRONG about Bodog pulling from U.S.

They can milk their U.S. business at this point, not having to spend money on advertising, while they look to markets with a future. Clearly there is no future for them in U.S.

I would base my prediction based on two concepts. 1) If UIGEA was a worry at all they took bets after the bill was signed so timing now is irrelevant. 2) Antigua is a safe haven for Bodog it seems, especially now that U.S. might actually admit they lost on WTO ruling.

The only way I could see Bodog pulling out, is if he cut a deal with the feds to buy back his freedom. Otherwise he's in so deep why bother?!?

As for sites dropping pros, probably a good bet considering they add very little value. I mean who goes to Absolute Poker because Mark Seif does?

[Archon_Wing]

tl;dc

[scorer]

While im not sure who is going to be next to withdraw out of the usa market/i do believe there will be more to follow

[Emperor]

Won't happen. They already comitted the crime. Stopping now won't save them. For that matter I am VERY suprised that PARTY hasn't picked up US players again since the DOJ decided to indict all of thier officers anyways.

"I didn't murder anymore of my neighbors after the first three!" isn't a very good defense strategy.

[*TT*]

Although gaboonviper is a poor poster, his predictions are the same that many industry insiders have been saying as far back as the '06 WSOP. Nothing here is new, and I do think most of his predictions will probably come true in one form or another.

Only error in gaboonviper's post was the additional inside story about Jamie Gold's deal with Bodog - he was actually signed to produce a poker show for the US market that won't get made anymore. The sponsorship was a part of his production deal, when the sponsorship deal was canceled the production deal was canceled as well.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Howard Beale]

[ QUOTE ]
the following things in that post have a real chance of happening:

-Bodog dumping their US pros
-Bodog pulling out (I doubt it, because Calvin Ayre doesn't seem like the type to leave easily, but there's a chance)

the following things range from 5-10% to lol:

-everything else

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd expect the magazines he mentioned to fold. Without the online rooms to advertise I don't see how they survive.