A theory....

[YoureToast]

I apologize if this has been brought up before (its hard to keep up with everything) but wanted to get some opinions on a theory a fellow 2+2er and I discussed at lunch today. Given the following facts/assumptions:

1. DOJ has told certain parties to stop doing business in the US -- and it has been suggested that if they get out now, there would not be further consequences (egs. Neteller, Pinnacle)
2. All of these parties are directly or indirectly tied to gambling sites that provide services other than poker.
3. The 2 largest US-focused poker sites that continue without hesitation (Stars and FTP) are poker-only sites.
4. Individuals responsible for creating the regs have indicated that because poker is a skill-game, they may have trouble enforcing the statute on poker sites.

Does all this point to the possibility that poker will not be subject to the statute and the regs? Could we all be worrying for nothing?

[rokstedy]

That seems to be the stance most optomists are taking. So far it's holding up. But that was never the problem to begin with. The problem is and remains, how do we get money into those sites? And by in, I mean easily.

[joeker]

Nope...you're missing the fact that they are going after the founders of Party gaming. Considering the fact that Party voluntarily pulled out of the US market, it looks like poker is just as much of a target, albeit not the primary target.

To them there is no difference between poker and sports betting

[ekdikeo]

As well as, and here's Mr. Paranoid Me talking again, what happens if the government officially declares Poker is a game of skill? Then it becomes a sport, and we start sports betting /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Valhalla1]

party gaming also runs online non-poker casinos, bingo halls, and other things besides just poker which probably affected their decision to pull out

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
party gaming also runs online non-poker casinos, bingo halls, and other things besides just poker which probably affected their decision to pull out

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, I think the feds have been after Dikshit for a while and for other things. I think Party is a unique case. What I don't understand and what concerns me about this theory is why hasn't Bodog and other sportsbetting sites closed down yet? In a backwards sort of way, I'm now kind of rooting for this to happen (despite my taste for sportsbetting).

[tx_saluki]

I disagree. To the DOJ there is a difference between sports betting and poker and that is held up by fed court decisions (as has been mentioned in this forum on numerous occasions). All the current fuss has nothing to do with Poker specifically, it is just becomming an unfortunate side effect (at lest unfortunate for us) of the attack on sports betting and online casinos.

And the attack against the european market is against 888 which is tied to sports betting and party gaming which has more then just poker (casino, bingo, etc.)

So far none of this is tied to UIGEA which isn't even in effect yet. This is DOJ cracking down on the wire act and using NY as a starting point since I think it is illegal there to place the bets.

Just my thoughts....

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
That seems to be the stance most optomists are taking. So far it's holding up. But that was never the problem to begin with. The problem is and remains, how do we get money into those sites? And by in, I mean easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is the current problem, but my post was intended to address the "long run". Right now, the funding problem can be explained by the fact that despite promises to the contrary, Neteller gave no warning to Stars/FTP (this is from anothe post in 1 of these forums, thus take it FWIW).

[joeker]

I hope you're right and they do in fact view it that way.

[ericicecream]

The DOJ/Neteller case is from activities a couple of years old. It's a long-term investigation. They waited till they could nab both guys at once on u.s. soil.

This is not some new oh-UIGEA-has-passed-so-we-gotta-get-neteller-because-they-are-still-servicing-u.s. type thing. If Neteller stopped serving u.s. the day UIGEA was passed, I'll bet the same 2 guys would have been arrested.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
The DOJ/Neteller case is from activities a couple of years old. It's a long-term investigation. They waited till they could nab both guys at once on u.s. soil.

This is not some new oh-UIGEA-has-passed-so-we-gotta-get-neteller-because-they-are-still-servicing-u.s. type thing. If Neteller stopped serving u.s. the day UIGEA was passed, I'll bet the same 2 guys would have been arrested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but would Netelle stop servicing the US? There is a big difference between the owners of a business and the business itself. The closeness in time between Pinnacle and Neteller getting out of the US market has to be more than coincidence.

[tx_saluki]

Its not coincedence but it is not UIGEA either. They are pulling out because they have ties to sports betting, and they are deciding that there business ties with the bet shops is more valuable then US customers. They see that DOJ is cracking down on online betting and don't want to give them an excuse to go after them or more importantly there shareholders since they are publically traded companies. Notice no private companies are bailing, since they maybe more willing to take the risk against the DOJ vs class action lawsuits from shareholders that would be much more expensive.

Again, just my thoughts ....

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
Its not coincedence but it is not UIGEA either. They are pulling out because they have ties to sports betting, and they are deciding that there business ties with the bet shops is more valuable then US customers. They see that DOJ is cracking down on online betting and don't want to give them an excuse to go after them or more importantly there shareholders since they are publically traded companies. Notice no private companies are bailing, since they maybe more willing to take the risk against the DOJ vs class action lawsuits from shareholders that would be much more expensive.

Again, just my thoughts ....

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points, especially regarding private companies.

I guess the premise of my theory is that there is some sort of wave of DOJ agents going to these companies and saying "Now's your chance to get out. If you don't get out now, you may face more significant problems." Mostly, I'm thinking about Pinnacle/Paradise here I guess since the Neteller thing is fuzzy due to the arrests. If thats what they are saying, then the fact that the 2 main US sites (and Absolute as well) are still in makes me a bit more optimistic. Its even possible the feds have talked to them and said they're safe (and may be subject to confidentiality restrictions). Obviously this is all a lot of speculation but I think there may be some truth to it.

[Coy_Roy]

[ QUOTE ]
4. Individuals responsible for creating the regs have indicated that because poker is a skill-game, they may have trouble enforcing the statute on poker sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are these individuals and where exactly are these quotes?

[YoureToast]

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4. Individuals responsible for creating the regs have indicated that because poker is a skill-game, they may have trouble enforcing the statute on poker sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are these individuals and where exactly are these quotes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I read it somewhere on this forum or in the zoo.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
party gaming also runs online non-poker casinos, bingo halls, and other things besides just poker which probably affected their decision to pull out

[/ QUOTE ]
If Party believed that only non-poker gambling was illegal for Americans, they would have just blocked Americans from bingo and the casino and let them keep playing poker.

[permafrost]

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4. Individuals responsible for creating the regs have indicated that because poker is a skill-game, they may have trouble enforcing the statute on poker sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are these individuals and where exactly are these quotes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I read it somewhere on this forum or in the zoo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, golly gee, it sure must be true if you saw it here!! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
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4. Individuals responsible for creating the regs have indicated that because poker is a skill-game, they may have trouble enforcing the statute on poker sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are these individuals and where exactly are these quotes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I read it somewhere on this forum or in the zoo.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, I do not believe there have been any official comments by the Federal Reserve regarding the drafting of the Regs, since the Bill was signed.

[YoureToast]

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4. Individuals responsible for creating the regs have indicated that because poker is a skill-game, they may have trouble enforcing the statute on poker sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are these individuals and where exactly are these quotes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I read it somewhere on this forum or in the zoo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, golly gee, it sure must be true if you saw it here!! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Never said it was true; it was part of the assumptions made in my initial post based on various things that had been said. If one of the assumptions turns out to be wrong, the theory likely has little merit.

[permafrost]

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4. Individuals responsible for creating the regs have indicated that because poker is a skill-game, they may have trouble enforcing the statute on poker sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are these individuals and where exactly are these quotes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I read it somewhere on this forum or in the zoo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, golly gee, it sure must be true if you saw it here!! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Never said it was true; it was part of the assumptions made in my initial post based on various things that had been said. If one of the assumptions turns out to be wrong, the theory likely has little merit.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I just told you it was true cause you read it here and so your theory is proven! Let me know if you need more help with these tough theories!

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
The DOJ/Neteller case is from activities a couple of years old. It's a long-term investigation. They waited till they could nab both guys at once on u.s. soil.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong, wrong and wrong. The Neteller case started this summer. And both of the dudes who were arrested have lived on US soil for a long time.

[JPFisher55]

I think that the biggest reason for the exodus from the US online gambling market, especially poker is the Jay Cohen case.
IMO, the individuals involved in this industry fear that the US federal courts will not interpret the applicable laws or follow the case precedence. Having read Mr. Cohen's account of his case, it seems that many lawyers thought that he and his company would be covered by an exemption in the Wire Act. They felt that, under the Wire Act and other applicable law, all the betting, telephone and Internet, originated and ended in Antiqua. The courts ruled that the betting originated in New York and the statutory exemption did not apply to Mr. Cohen.