confidence intervals for SNGs

[MightyMouse2]

If I've played 500 SNGs with an ROI of 16 percent, what is my 95 percent confidence interval. Or do I need more information?

[DrVanNostrin]

You need your SD. And even then this is a confusing problem because your SD/SNG will not form a bell curve (due to the payout structure). I suppose it would be possible if you had your SD/10SNGs because that may form a bell curve.

I'm not too sure of this, but you do need a SD of some kind.

[sixhigh]

You SD/Sng should be aprox. Buyin*1.6, unless you play very bad and never get itm or so.

Your 70% conf.interval will be sqrt(#games)*SD.
And the 95% interval will be twice as much.

I.e. last 3 months I have played 482 11s with a ROI of 24% and had a SD/sng of $18.49. So the 95% confidence interval for me would be +/- $812.
Or in other words with 95% certainity my 'real' roi will be between 8.7% and 39.3%.

There must be some link concerning this topic in the sng-faq.